Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Wild Card Round

I'll open by stating that the pass-happy nature of the NFL makes wide receiver one of the deeper positions to select from every week, and that extends to the playoffs. While the options at other positions are limited, this is a position where gamers can get a bit creative and make contrarian selections. With that in mind, the format of this article hasn't really changed for the Wild Card Round.

Elite Plays

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

If this were a full slate like any week of the regular season, Brown would qualify as more of a GPP play. That said, it's not the regular season and with four games to pick players from, Brown's case for usage in all game types grows despite a tough matchup and a lack of big games in his career against the Bengals. Obviously personnel turnover takes place frequently, which is why it's dangerous to put too much stock in a player's career numbers against a single opponent, but Brown totaled just 13 receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati this year, and seven receptions and 87 yards of that total came against a secondary without Adam Jones. By Brown's standards, those numbers are pedestrian.

Ultimately, though, there's a lot to like with Brown. He finished tied for the league lead with 136 receptions, second in receiving yards with 1,834 (114.6 per game) and tied for 10th in touchdown grabs with 10. It's also likely that had Ben Roethlisberger been not missed a quarter of the season, Brown would be leading the way all by his lonesome in each of those categories. The duo operated at a high level, and the volume work for Brown should be extreme. DeAngelo Williams is basically doubtful for this weekend's contest, and the remaining healthy members of the backfield will have a tough time against the Bengals stout run defense. That should result in a heavier volume of work from Big Ben, and thus, more targets for his top wideout. Brown is probably going to be the highest owned wide receiver this week, and you're playing with fire if you fade him in cash games. In GPPs, you won't get the low ownership often desired, but you will get a high ceiling that results from the elite skills Brown possesses.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,500

Cash: 60-70%

GPP: 45-55%

DraftKings - $9,600

Cash: 60-70%

GPP: 50-60%

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

My top option at wide receiver this week, and it's not particularly close, is Green. He comes with a much more cap-friendly salary than Brown, and he has a softer matchup facing the Pittsburgh secondary. The Steelers allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers during the regular season, and Green barbecued them twice. In two games against his AFC North division foe, Green rattled off eye-popping totals of 17 receptions for 250 yards and two touchdowns. One of those touchdowns came from the arm of A.J. McCarron, who has been adequate standing in for Andy Dalton. The Steelers ranked 27th defending number-one receivers, according to Football Outsiders (FO), and Green should have little trouble beating up on them for a third time this year. He has the best combination of ceiling and floor at wide receiver this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,300

Cash: 60-70%

GPP: 50-60%

DraftKings - $7,500

Cash: 60-70%

GPP: 50-60%

Value Plays

DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins

D-Jax is more of a value play at DraftKings than at FanDuel. That's not to say he's not in play at FanDuel, he certainly is, but if you're looking for a second value play to accompany the forthcoming value wide out, consider Tyler Lockett of the Seahawks at $6,200. Getting back to Jackson, though, he is the owner of elite speed and big play-making ability, and he helped Kirk Cousins kick things up a notch after returning in Week 9. Speaking of Cousins, he's been an animal at home this season completing 74.71% of his passes, 16 touchdowns, two interceptions and totaling 271.3 yards passing per game with a gaudy 117.0 Passer Rating. His ability to pick apart defenses when playing in Washington elevates the value of all pass catchers in the offense.

Jordan Reed is the chalkiest of chalk plays at any position this week, and that could hold Jackson's ownership rate down a smidge. D-Jax only needs one long touchdown grab to payoff his salary at DraftKings, and he was no stranger to the end zone this season. Jackson reeled in four touchdowns in his nine games after returning from injury, and one of those games (Week 17) he didn't actually play any offensive snaps. Green Bay has a solid pass defense, but they did rank just 22nd defending number-one receivers, per FO. D-Jax is a solid option in both cash games and GPPs this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,000

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $4,500

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 15-25%

James Jones, Green Bay Packers

The absence of Jordy Nelson from the passing attack has hurt Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers badly, but it's also allowed Jones to rise to the top of the wide out heap for them. He's surpassed Randall Cobb as the top pass-catching option for the team, and while his value was almost exclusively tied to finding the end zone early in the year (six touchdown grabs in the first six games of the year), he's turned into more than a touchdown-or-bust option down the stretch. Last week, he caught just four of 13 targets but ripped off 102 yards receiving against the Vikings. Two weeks ago he caught six of 9 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. Sandwiched in between those highly productive efforts was a five reception for 46 yards effort, but he was targeted 11 times. He's emerged as a go-to guy for Rodgers, and Washington has a leaky secondary. The Redskins allowed the seventh most DraftKings points per game and the sixth most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers during the regular season. They also graded out as a very giving defense to number-one receivers checking in 28th defending them, per FO. At his salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he'll be one of the more popular options at receiver.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,700

Cash: 35-45%

GPP: 25-35%

DraftKings - $4,100

Cash: 30-40%

GPP: 20-30%

GPP Plays

Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks

The over/under total for the Seahawks at Vikings game has dipped below 40 points to 39.5 points, per Pinnacle Sports. There's a pretty good chance that has something to do with the frigid temperatures -- putting it mildly -- that are forecast for the game. The temperature is expected to drop to -15 to -20 degrees. Catching the football in such bitter cold conditions could be tough, and that should help drive down the ownership rates of each of the pass catchers on Seattle. Kearse's ownership should be further depressed by lurking behind Doug Baldwin and, arguably, Lockett in the passing attack pecking order. Kearse was basically neck and neck with Lockett in most statistical categories, but Lockett emerged as the more productive receiver toward the end of the season.

Kearse had his moments, though, and those include seven catches for 74 yards in Week 14, seven catches for 110 yards in Week 15 and finding pay dirt in each of the final two games of the regular season, albeit with just 38 yards in Week 16 and 34 yards in Week 17. Using Pro Football Focus' custom matchup tool, it looks like Kearse should draw Xavier Rhodes in coverage. That would prove to be a plus matchup since Rhodes ranks 67th among conerbacks, and his overall grade is elevated thanks to his run defense, not his coverage skills. If you're going to win a GPP this weekend, you'll need to be contrarian somewhere, and Kearse makes for one of my favorite contrarian plays.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,000

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $3,300

GPP: 5-15%

Jaelen Strong, Houston Texans

Strong's value is primarily tied to the health of Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts III. Coach Bill O'Brien indicated Monday that Shorts "has a chance" to play, but his practice participation will help sort out the likelihood of that being the case. Washington is considered day to day, but he didn't practice Wednesday. He seems to be the longer shot of the two to play this weekend. If both receivers are out, Strong will get a hearty ownership boost that exceeds the ownership numbers I've projected below. My ownership estimates are with one of the two wide outs missing the contest in mind, but not both of them missing the game.

Last week, Shorts was out and Washington exited the game against the Jaguars early, and Strong played 60 offensive snaps (79% of the offensive snaps), according to Pro-Football Reference. He finished second to DeAndre Hopkins in targets receptions and receiving yards totaling seven, six and 56, respectively. In Week 16, he was targeted five times but caught just two passes for 18 yards. His 12 targets in the final two games of the season accounted for half of his season total for targets. The rookie wide out did score three touchdowns including a Hail Marry grab on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. He's a big target at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, and he was a highly productive receiver in his two seasons with Arizona State. In 2013, he caught 75 passes for 1,112 yards and seven touchdowns as a sophomore, and in 2014, he caught 82 passes for 1,165 yards and 10 touchdowns. The production was enough to help influence the Texans to select him in the third round of the NFL Draft. He's a talented youngster who is still green. The Chiefs have a very talented defense, but receivers did give them problems at times. They allowed the ninth most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers during the regular season.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,000

GPP: 2-12%

DraftKings - $3,000

GPP: 2-12%