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The Crowne Plaza Invitational Review

It was a good week for the Pin Seeker at the Crowne Plaza, as we had 11 of the 12 players recommended make the cut. The only player who didn't, Ryan Palmer, was also the highest owned player in almost every Draftkings GPP. The chalk curse in PGA DFS seems to be very real, as John Peterson was victim of the newly implemented MDF, and didn't get to play Sunday. He was the second highest player owned, behind the aforementioned Palmer. I really wish I had used more Chris Kirk, who won the event with some clutch play on the last few holes, and less Brendon Todd for the same $9,100 price tag. It was a great finish on Sunday, as you had Jordan Spieth in the mix yet again, as well as Ian Poulter doing Ian Poulter things, and Kevin Na doing Kevin Na things, which is always entertaining.

AT&T Byron Nelson Championship

We're still in the heart of Texas this week, as the TPC Four Seasons in Irving hosts the Byron Nelson Championship. The field is very top heavy this week, with quite a few big names, including Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Day, Kuchar and Walker. There are a litany of challenging par 4's on this course, where the tournament will most likely be won or lost. Make sure on Wednesday night you check the weather, every year wind plays a factor here and there might be an advantage in playing the morning or afternoon groups.


Key Stats for TPC Four Seasons

Because of all the work done to this course a few years back, I will only be tracking information from the past seven tournaments. I will be targeting players who score well and make a lot of birdies, and the first stat is Par 3 Scoring (P3S.) Four of the past five winners have finished in the top 50 in par 3 scoring, and attacking these holes will be crucial. I know I talk about it every week, but I will be paying extra attention to strokes gained tee to green (T2G.) Four of the past seven winners have finished the season in the top 50 in T2G, and a lot of players that stood out to be as good value happened to be ranked highly in T2G in 2015. Even though there are only two par 5's on this par 70 track, scoring on them will be imperative. Both of them are reachable, so I will take a look at eagle % and birdie % as well. Five of the past seven winners have finished the season in the top 50 in birdie %. As well, four of the past seven winners have been in the top 50 in par 5 scoring (P5S.) Total driving will be key this week as well, with all of the wind, so players with a combination of length and accuracy will flourish.

Top Pin Seekers

Jordan Spieth

DraftKings Salary

P3S

P5S

T2G

$13,300

16

1

7

No point in going into too much detail here, coming off another great finish, Spieth makes a fantastic play in any format. The only reason I wouldn't play him is his price makes it tough to return value if he doesn't win the tournament outright, so look elsewhere in cash games.


Jason Day

DraftKings Salary

P3S

P5S

T2G

$11,200

1

1

29

For cash games, I would take Day over Spieth due to the $2,100 discount, and as you can see, Days stats' point to a strong showing this week. Also 1st in birdie %


Ryan Palmer

DraftKings Salary

P3S

P5S

T2G

$9,200

50

35

14

Palmer burned a lot of people last week, and hopefully that will deter them from playing him this week. I actually like him more this week than last, and his game sets up beautifully for this track.


Daniel Berger

DraftKings Salary

P3S

P5S

T2G

$8,100

50

22

25

Surprise, surprise, Berger makes the list of plays. He's knocking on the door, and will be a staple of my cash game lineups


Middle Tee Plays

Morgan Hoffman - DK $7,000 – great price point, safe for cash and great tournament play– 33rd in birdie %

Brenden Steele – DK $7,000 – great price, favorite overall play of the week - 15th T2G , 9th in P4S & 17th in birdie %

Jimmy Walker – DK $9,400 – trending upward – top 50 in all key stats

Jason Dufner – DK $6,900 – former winner, great price – 28th T2G, 7/7 in cuts made here

Charley Hoffman – DK $8,400 – great current form and history – top 50 in P4S, T2G & birdie %

Russell Henley – DK $7,900 – top 50 in P4S & birdie %


GPP Dart Board Dreams

Brooks Koepka – DK $7,700 – GPP play only, great price - top 50 in P4S, T2G & birdie %

Martin Laird – DK $7,100 – Great price and good current form – 4th in P3S, 22nd in P4S & 24th in T2G

Will Wilcox – DK $7,000 – 6th in P3S & 22nd in P4S

Fades

There is a long list of overpriced players this week, and it will be easy to avoid them with all the good value plays listed and top end talent that could win outright. List includes, in no particular order: Ian Poulter, Zach Johnson, Gary Woodland, Charl Shwartzel, and Keegan Bradley.



Comments
ArtVandelay10
With Day's WD, and the wet conditions, I really like Dustin Johnson - bump up Berger, Steele and Koepka as well - punt with Tony Finau
sports_25tolife
You nailed a few Dart Board guys last week, I'm rolling with Koepka this week from the list.