Playing the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club (Quicken Loans National)

This week, I decided to switch up the format for “Playing the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club". As a new host for the Quicken Loans Invitational, The RTJ Golf Club will be a new look for all but a select few players. The select few participated in several Presidents Cups that were hosted on the course, but not enough to gain a distinct advantage, not to mention that it would be a huge surprise if those players had the same caddy and yardage book. Of the ten players who participated in those Presidents Cups—among those Tiger Woods, Davis Love II, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh—Davis Love III is the only one to have played in all four events.

Much of the course knowledge player's gain from playing tournaments at the same site year after year is manifested through their caddies. Every player is given a yardage and wind speed/direction from their caddy prior to a shot, as well as conversational banter about what type of shot the player is going to hit. Yes, players overrule their caddy and some do not necessarily include their caddy in shot selection, however, caddies are responsible for mapping the greens and charting the course. This means they play a huge part in helping their “boss" understand the course precisely, no matter what player we are talking about. When a course dictates that all caddies are on an even playing field, this also reduces the margin of skill between the best players and the rest of the field. There is a flipside to this argument, and that is, with all caddies equal, the most skilled players shine. I don't subscribe to that theory, mainly because golf on the PGA Tour level deals with centimeters, not inches. The best player can get a gust of late wind, carry the ball a fraction long of his intended target and end up with a 9ft putt (or worse, or much worse), instead of a 5ft putt. The best putter on tour from 9ft, makes 70% of his putts. The best putter on tour from 7ft makes 85% of his putts and the best from 5ft, makes 96% of his putts. The closer you get to the hole, no matter if it is an inch, a foot, or four feet in this case, the higher the percentage of made putts. Caddies play a big part in helping the player hit the ball closer to the hole.

With all that said, I believe this is a week where there is a very good chance you will see a player win his first tour event. Robert Trent Jones was a golf course architect who basically owned American golf course design for the better part of the 20^th century. He designed over 400 golf courses in more than 30 countries. He liked his courses to be “fun", and despite engineering many public courses, his designs were not necessarily easy for the weekend hacker. One of his favorite characteristics was to add forced carries, and large, odd shaped greenside bunkers, making them stand out among the perfectly manicured grass on the greens and fairways. He was also famous for segmenting his greens into quadrants, which allowed the option for multiple hole locations. You will also see that many of the greens are lipped on the sides, either encouraging a roll away from the hole and off the green, or funneling the ball back towards the pin.

To succeed this week, players will need to be very sharp with their mid-irons, as the design places a premium on hitting the correct quadrant. Due to the many bumps, humps and ridges bisecting each quadrant, if you are not precise with your approach, the ball will most likely land and roll away from the hole. Unlike many of his other designs that litter the fairway rough with bunkers, the RTJ Golf Club will not give inaccurate drivers much trouble. The fairways are very wide, and the bunkers do not come into play often, giving long hitters no reason to think twice about going after each and every tee shot. Considering how important the approach shot is this week, the players who can put a wedge or short-iron in their hand will have a much easier time navigating the greens.

Here are five players who I think can take advantage of the vast fairways and undulating greens of the RTJ Golf Club. As always, these are not necessarily the top five golfers I'd rank to win the tournament, but rather the players who give you the best chance of exceeding their salary value on DraftKings.

• 1) Ricky Fowler ($11,700): 10^th in Total Driving, 27^th in All-Around, 45^th in Driving Distance
• This is one area where I agree with Lou Pinella when he stated “Stats are like bikinis, they show a lot, but not the whole thing". The stats do not back up how well Fowler has played this year, although that is in large part due to his inconsistency. He has two wins in his last six starts, including the Players Championship. His incredible ball-striking was on display at TPC Sawgrass, as was his ability to shift into high gear and leave everyone else behind. He is sneaky long off the tee, so the course should match up with his skillset very well.
• 2) Will Wilcox ($8,900): 6^th in GIR, 3^rd in Ball-Striking, 5^th in Total Driving, 1^st in All-Around
• One of these weeks I will be right. One look at his stats and it is easy to see why I have become the president of the unofficial Wilcox fan club. He basically has it all; 5^th in Driving, 3^rd in Ball-Striking, 1^st in Sand Save % and 50^th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He shot (-10) on the weekend at the Barbasol Championship (2^nd place), so all that is left for him to do is get out of the gates a little faster. If he can get himself into position on the weekend this week, he has as good a chance as anyone to pick up his 1^st tour victory.
• 3) Shawn Stefani ($8,800): 28^th in GIR, 18^th in Ball-Striking, 11^th All-Around
• Stefani had the highest finish of his PGA Tour career at the Quicken Loans National last year, where he came in 2^nd place after bogeying the 72^nd hole and then losing to Justin Rose in a playoff. Despite taking place at Congressional, Stefani has the type of game that should see success at RTJ GC. He is pretty good at everything, but his ball-striking is where he makes his money and that will be the name of the game this week. Still searching for his first win, Stefani needs to take advantage of a good opportunity this week and seal the deal. I expect a top 5 finish.
• 4) Danny Lee ($9,100) 33^rd in Strokes Gained: Putting, 25^th in All-Around, 19^th in Proximity 2TH
• Lee has had a helluva month, rolling out his first win at the Greenbriar, and following that up with a 3^rd place finish at the John Deere. While his season long stats—specifically ball-striking (141^st)—aren't necessarily in line with what I look for this week, anyone who has watched him play the last couple weeks can see that he has made tremendous strides. His swing is so balanced, he often makes difficult shots look routine. I am going to trust my eyes on this one and say that his season long stats are not indicative of the type of golf he is playing right now, nor the golf he will play in the future. I won't blame you if you overlook him due to the large sample size, but he and Wilcox are grouped in with players of stature (Bill Haas, Gary Woodland) due to past success, not current form. With no course history to go on, I'd rather trust current form.
• 5) Hudson Swafford ($5900) 10^th in Total Driving, 18^th in Ball-Striking, 34^th in Strokes Gained: Putting
• Swafford is another guy who I have routinely backed over the last couple weeks, despite not having a tour victory to his name. While his total results are nothing to write home about, he comes in at a bargain price this week, $5900, offering salary relief and a player who can score a solid amount of points without having to have a top 5 finish. One look at his core stats—driving, iron play, putting—and it's not hard to see why though. He doesn't just have a solid all-around game, he excels at every facet. To find that type of talent but still lacking in the “W" column is not unprecedented, in fact it happens quite often. Winning on tour is not a measure of JUST talent, there is a component of course management and patience involved. It is why it took Phil Mickelson so long to win a major, and why he has yet to break through and win a US Open, despite finishing 2^nd a record six times. There is no doubt that Swafford has the all-around talent capable of winning on tour, he just has to relax on the weekends and let the course come him, as opposed to forcing it on Saturday and Sunday. This week would be as good a time as any, especially against a weaker field littered with guys also looking for their first tour victory.