PGA Pin Seeker 10-27-15

The CIMB Classic Preview

The PGA Tour heads overseas this week to Kuala Limpur, Malaysia, and specifically Kuala Limpur Golf and Country Club. The field is a smaller one than usual this week with 78 players, and thus there is no cut. The course definitely doesn't require length, as it's a par 72 that measures only 6,967 yards. Ryan Moore is the two time defending champion, and will be in attendance this week to try and make it three in a row. The field is a pretty strong one this week, as many players are using this as a warm up for the big WGC even next week in Shanghai. The KLGCC has also hosted the European Tour and Asian Tours co-sanctioned Malaysian Open, so there was some data available to look over there as well. The difficult par 5 18^th hole, the toughest of the four par 5's last year, was re-configured to give players more space to land the ball on their tee shot. The thinking here was to give players a better opportunity to go for the green in two. There are also eight players who competed in the Presidents Cup this year that will be in the field, with Patrick Reed being the only American of the bunch.

Key Stats for the Kuala Limpur Golf & Country Club

Par 4 Scoring (P4S) was the first stat I identified that seemed to have a correlation with success at KLGCC the last couple years. In 2013, three players who finished t3 or better, also finished the season in the top 15 in P4S. Accuracy and ball striking are going to be super important this week on such a small layout, and Driving Accuracy (DA) is the 2^nd key stat I identified. Ryan Moore finished the season in the top 10 in DA the last two years, both times he won this event. I won't be completely ignoring the bombers this week, as they are usually the type of high variance golfer that scores well. With no cut this week, there isn't as much risk in taking a player who is aggressive and doesn't mind trading birdie and eagles for bogeys. Finally, Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%), was the final key stat I looked over. With the no cut factor, I want players who are going to give themselves opportunities to make eagles and birdies. Greens in regulation and strokes gained putting are two secondary stats to keep an eye on this week. In 2013, three players in the top 5 were inside the top 50 that year in strokes gained putting.

Top Pin Seekers

Henrik Stenson

It came out this week that Stenson will have knee surgery in December, but is still playing this week - I hope that scares people off of him, because he should tear this course up - Will utilize his 3 wood off the tee and rack up the birdies - 1st in GIR GPP Ownership Guess: 10-15%

Kevin Na

Great current form, with a 2nd place finish in his last two starts - 2nd last year in only appearance at KLGCC GPP Ownership Guess: 15-20%

Sergio Garcia

Second here last year, and 11th two years ago - I expect low ownership with guys like Na, Matsuyama, Grace and Moore in similar price range GPP Onwership Guess: 5-10%

Anirban Lahiri

Didn't play enough PGA Tour rounds to qualify for 2015 stats, but has a win and a 10th in his last two appearances at the Malaysian Open. He's also in fantastic form right now with three top 7 finishes in his last four starts. His price tag is reasonable at $9,800, which is around a group of players I like including Ryan Moore and Patrick Reed. Moore's ownership should be really high as the two time defending champion, so playing players around his price is a good way to be contrarian.

Justin Thomas - DK Salary $9,600 - good form, 3rd two weeks ago - top 27 in P4S, BoB% & GIR

Paul Casey - DK Salary $9,500 - top 31 in GIR, P4S & BoB%

Danny Lee - DK Salary $9,200 - 13th in only appearance - 19th in BoB% & 26th in P4S

Harris English - DK Salary $9,100 - 7th in 2013 - 26th in P4S

Daniel Berger - DK Salary $8,600 - top 50 in P4S, BoB% & GIR

Tony Finau - DK Salary $8,500 - best value of the week - top 57 in GIR, BoB% & P4S

Robert Streb - DK Salary $8,200 - another great value - top 23 in GIR, P4S & BoB%

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Kevin Kisner - DK Salary $8,100 -- top 50 in DA & P4S

Brendan Steele - DK Salary $8,000 - MC last week should keep ownership down despite great price - top 40 in GIR, P4S & BoB%

Brendon De Jonge - DK Salary $7,900 - 13th here last year - top 58 in three key stats

Keegan Bradley - DK Salary $7,900 - 10th in 2013 - top 60 in GIR, DA & BoB%

Kevin Chappell - DK Salary $7,300 - top 25 in both previous appearances - top 50 in P4S & BoB%

Hudson Swafford - DK Salary $6,800 - top 50 in three key stats