The First Tee: The Honda Classic (PGA National)

The First Tee: The Honda Open (PGA National)

Heading into the final round of last week's Northern Trust Open, there was a certain atmosphere that is usually reserved for major championships. There were so many top flight players in contention, you knew the winner was going to have to go out and post a low round. Riviera is not exactly the type of golf course that rewards aggressive play, but with near ideal conditions, it set the stage for some great golf. In the end, Bubba Watson stood alone at the top of the leaderboard which came as no great surprise to me. His length turned some of the longer par 4's and par 5's into easy birdie holes, which given the difficult nature of the greens, put a ton of pressure on his fellow competitors. Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson and Jason Kokrak all played well on Sunday, but in the end it was Bubba versus the golf course. Bubba now has nine wins for his PGA Tour career, a number that is sure to grow in the coming months with the way he is playing. It is interesting to note that whenever Bubba is in a field that includes other world class players, it is rare that is price is consistent with his win percentage. Given the fact that he was a former winner at Riviera, it was the perfect chance to load up on him and take advantage of his rather soft pricing.

The Course

With the conclusion of the West Coast Swing, the tour moves to Florida and this week's Honda Classic at PGA National. PGA National has been the host of a Ryder Cup, a PGA Championship and was the perennial site of the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000.

Designed in 1980 by George and Tom Fazio as a par 70, PGA National will be played at a touch over 7100 yards this week, short by many PGA standards. Don't let the length fool you though, Padraig Harrington went out and shot an even par (70) in the final round last year and took home the win with a total score of -8. PGA National also hosted the Tour's qualifying school for a number of years, so many of the veterans in the field have played the track upwards of 100 times in their career. That didn't stop Daniel Berger from nearly hoisting the trophy in his first encounter last year, but the lack of experience did catch up to him when he dunked his ball in the water on the first playoff hole. The tournament has seen youngster fare well over the years, namely Russell Henley who took home the title in 2014.

PGA National is known for the infamous “Bear Trap", a collection of holes on the back nine that takes its namesake from Jack Nicklaus, who redesigned the course in 1990. Nicklaus has a general design philosophy that forces players to think out each shot from a strategic standpoint, which can be illustrated by the high number of double bogeys (and up) that appear each year at The Honda Classic. Typically, the course does not favor one specific skillset or metric, but rather a steady hand that is capable of minimizing mistakes, and quickly moving on to the next hole if in fact you do make a mistake. Another large factor is the wind that is prevalent regardless of the weather. I don't normally favor wind as a metric due to the inconsistency in tracking it, but this is a week where you can look to previous success in windy conditions as an indicator of whether a player is capable of winning this tournament. On our PGA advice thread, located here (https://www.dailyfantasycafe.com/forums/golf/pga-lineup-advice-the-honda-classic ), my colleague Ryan Chase pointed out that Jimmy Walker has had success in windy conditions, therefore giving him great value at his current DK salary ($9,000). It is a good point, and one that I cannot argue against, although I do prefer other players in his price range mainly because of his success in courses that are fairly straight forward. I would point to his results in major championships, which have not stacked up well compared to his regular tournament sample size, as my reasoning that he does not typically fare well on courses that force a high level of strategy and game planning. Given his win percentage and current form, he is a very solid PP$ play this week though.

The Field

Due to such a large contingency of PGA pro's making their home in Florida, the Honda Classic has been a favorite of many of the world's best players over the years. This year is no different as the field is highlighted by two of the top five players in the world in Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler, both of whom live nearby in Palm Beach. Rory has had a lot of success at PGA National and I would look for that trend to continue after a promising begin to his season last week at Riviera.

Overall, the field includes 13 of the top 25 players in the world, as well as a host of player inside the top 50 in the Fed Ex Cup Rankings. Aside from Rickie and Rory, the field boasts players with high name recognition such as Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia. After a disaster of a first round last week, Garcia will look to get his game back on track at a course where he has not missed a cut in five tries.

Another player who has started to round his game back into form is Luke Donald. Formerly a #1 player in the world, Donald struggled mightily over the last several years. Donald got to be #1 in the world by virtue of having one of the best short games, but his demise was sparked by a feeling that he needed to get longer to keep pace with the younger generation of players. Donald has four top 10's in his last four trips to PGA National, and will be one of the more interesting picks this week in DFS.

Rankings

Here are five Tour Pro's I am looking at this week, using PP$ on DraftKings as my main qualifier.

• 1.)Rory McIlroy: Rory went into the final round last week eyeing a win, but closed with a 75 that moved him all the way back to a T20. Regardless, PGA National fits his game very well, and aside from being a very good wind player, he has the major championship experience to succeed at PGA National, evidenced by his win in 2012 and his runner up finished in 2014.
• 2.)Rickie Fowler: With the 2^nd high salary this week, I am not rocking the boat much by picking him 2^nd in my rankings. Fowler is in great form this year with a win in Abu Dhabi and a runner up finish at the Waste Management. His all-around skillset is a nice fit for PGA National. He's 7^th in bogey avoidance and that will suit him well at a course that rewards par as a good score.
• 3.)Paul Casey: Casey has always had the talent of a top 10 player, but injuries and some bad timing in the past have prevented him from getting over the hump. He hasn't won at PGA National, but he has finished 3^rd and 12^th the last two years, and even more importantly he's finished with a score of par or better in each of his last six rounds. That type of consistency cannot be overstated. He may not win, but PP$ wise, I was very close to placing him above Rory and Rickie.
• 4.)Hideki Matsuyama: To borrow a phrase from Seinfeld, Matsuyama is the master of his own domain. He is one of, if not the best ball-striker in the world and has an unflappable demeanor that perfectly matches the challenge in front of players this week. He leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, which points to his all around game and ability to avoid making mistakes.
• 5.)Brendan Grace: A name that may not be familiar to many Americans, although it should be after his impressive performances in the major championships last year. Grace is another player who is mentally tough, and his top showing at the US Open is an indicator of his ability to handle tough courses in tough conditions. He is top form currently, having placed no worse than a top 10 in his last six starts.