The First Tee: The Northern Trust

Recap

What a way to finish the regular season! You had some chalk and some guys that are fighting to have a job for next year. Stenson will be that guy for me who I never get right. He was ranked #1 in the model I was using and I didn't bother playing him because I never understood why he was playing at The Wyndham. The only reason that made sense to me was because he needed the minimum starts for the world rankings. Either way, most of my guys that I picked, played ok, but barely. Not enough to have a sweat over the weekend. Congrats to Stenson on winning and onto the first leg of the playoffs!

This Week

We are headed to New York for the first playoff event, The Northern Trust Open. The course is called Glen Oaks Club, it's 7,350 yards and a par 70. We have 125 guys and only the top 100 move on. I would start considering going a bit more aggressive for the next 4 events. With only 125 guys, there will be a lot of duplicate lineups in the bigger gpps and cash games. The best way to be unique is to leave money on the table. I recommend going to leave no more than $1,000. For stats, I'm looking at SG: Tee To Green; SG: Around The Green; SG: Par 4 scoring; and B.O.B. %.

3 Core Plays

Jordan Spieth ($11,200) – This is no surprise that I'm going this route. Spieth is just too good and I understand for fading him because of popularity, but Spieth is the only player I trust at the top to almost go all in on this week. He has made 6 cuts in a row now and he has certainly peeked at the right time. For stats, he's 1^st in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; 1^st in the field for SG: Around The Green; 6^th in the field for SG: Tee To Green; and 8^th in the field for making birdies. With a top 10 finish at this event last year, he's going to be in almost all of my lineups.

Kevin Chappell ($7,700) – Chappell has been consistent with the first playoff event for the last 4 years, making all 4 cuts and his best finish being a t15 back in 2013. For stats, he's 5^th in the field for SG: Tee To Green; 7^th in the field for SG: Around The Green; 23^rd in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; and 26^th in the field for making birdies. He has made his last 3 cuts and being ranked 30^th, he has a chance to make it to east lake. He will be my dark horse pick for this week.

Francesco Molinari ($7,600) – Just like Stenson, Molinari is one of those guys where I can't figure out. His stats always line up and when I play him, he seems to be just ok or misses the cut, and if I don't play him then he will play well and finishes inside the top 5. I like Molinari this week because of his recent play in the last 12 rounds. He's 8^th in the field for both SG: Par 4 scoring and SG: Tee To Green. He's also 20^th in the field for SG: Around The Green and 26^th in the field for making birdies. After missing back to back cuts at The U.S. Open and The Open, he comes back and plays well in the WGC and the PGA (finishing 2^nd). With those finishes, he'll be a nice anchor for the core.

3 Honourable Mentions

Rickie Fowler ($11,300) – Fowler would be a nice option for your player pool. For stats, he's 2^nd in the field for making birdies and he's 10^th in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring. Both Fowler and Spieth will be popular this week. So I would either pick one and go all in or pick 2 and have them almost even exposed to the field.

Jamie Lovemark ($7,400) – I'm not sure what Lovemark's ownership will be, however, I do like his chances this week. He's 7^th in the field for making birdies and he's 8^th field for SG: Around The Green. He's ranked 47^th entering this week, so he needs a decent showing this week and possibly next week as well if he wants to make it into the top 30. He has made 9 cuts in a row and he finished 3^rd at the Greenbriar. He could be another dark horse for this week.

Charl Schwartzel ($6,900) – This seems like a good value to get on for this week. He has made his last 3 cuts and he has good history at the first playoff event with missing only one cut and finishing inside the top 30 3 times. Depending how many people will talk about him, he could be a nice gpp play.

3 Fades

Rory Mcllroy ($10,900) – Right now, Mcllroy is the only person that I don't trust up here with his injury. I'm surprise he's participating in the playoffs. He did so some signs at the PGA, but nothing too exciting. So, at this point, I'm just staying away until next season.

Bubba Watson ($7,300) – This should be a no brainer. His stats are not that good in the last 12 rounds. He just didn't seem right all season. He's ranked 113^th entering this week and he's need to play well in order to move on for next week. So if you want to play the low ownership angle and the motivation for him to move into the top 100. That's not for me.

Billy Horschel ($6,900) – Horschel is virtually did last in the field for the stats that I'm looking at this week. He could turn it around, however, with last 3 starts finishing near the bottom of the leaderboard. I normally like Horschel, but, this week, I'm fading away.

Exposure

Like I mentioned earlier, I recommend going more aggressive this week and going forward. For the core, I will expose them around 70-80%. If you like to play the multi entry gpps, then I would choose 3 in the core and pick no more than 15 golfers. For 3 entry max gpps, I would rotate the 3 golfers and have no more 8-10 golfers. That way, if your core hits, then you will have a really good chance of having a good payday! At the end of the day, that is what we're all trying to achieve!

Good luck everyone!