PGA Pin Seeker 7-28-15

The Quicken Loans National Preview

The Course

"Tiger's Tournament" makes its first appearance at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Gainesville, Virginia. The par 71 layout features six par 4's between 470 and 500 yards, and three of the four par 5's over 550 yards. RTJGC has never hosted a PGA event, but this leads me to believe that off the tee performance will be critical this week. There are a ton of bunkers on this track, not to mention Lake Manassas that seems to line half of the course. With trouble lurking everywhere, accuracy is going to imperative.

The Field

This is an invitation only event, with 120 players in the field, and 70 still making the cut. This will allow you to play more 'stars n scrubs' lineups, even in cash games, with a way higher percentage (13% higher) of players making the cut than normal. There have been a litany of players withdrawing, including Matt Jones, Russell Henley, Brendon Todd, Alex Cejka and Matt Every. Make sure you keep an eye on that up until Wednesday night. It's a very top heavy field, with three big favorites in defending champion Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Jimmy Walker. All three of them make exceptional plays, and the course seems to set up well for all three as well. After the big three, there is some serious talent, young and old, that will be fighting for the title. Tiger Woods is in the field, as he's the host of the event, but it's really hard to recommend him at this point. I do think that he will eventually start winning tournaments and competing in majors again, but not until he takes his return seriously by playing in more events instead of taking time off to practice.

Key Stats for Robert Trent Jones Golf Club

With no historical tournament data to analyze this week, I will be looking for the best all-around players at the best price on DraftKings. With so many bunkers, and some longer holes to navigate, Total Driving is the first key stat I analyzed. I will also look at driving distance to break any ties, as I do think length will be a big factor. Next, I looked at Proximity to the hole, as again, with all the danger lurking, I want players who are giving themselves opportunities to make birdies on the greens. Finally, Strokes gained putting is my final key stat in finding the most well rounded golfers. If you're looking for stats to differentiate your lineups and find some sleepers nobody else will be on, look at sand save % and par 5 scoring, two important stats for the RTJGC.

Top Pin Seekers

Justin Rose

Rose is the defending champion, and coming into the event in great form with two top 6 finishes in his last four starts, including the Open Championship. Also ranked 9th in sand save percentage GPP Ownership Guess: 15-20%

Jimmy Walker

Walker has the game and pedigree to get a win this week, and his putter and length off the tee should have him in the mix on Sunday. May be overlooked due to his price and options around him, but fade at your own risk. 17th in Driving distance this season GPP Ownership Guess: 8-13%

Justin Thomas

I also like Tony Finau in this range, but I'm giving Thomas the nod due to being ranked second in par 5 scoring this season, slightly behind Bubba Watson. He seems to be a popular player, so his ownership will be hard to gauge, as his price is higher than normal. First win on Tour is coming sooner than later I think, should rack up the birdies this week. GPP Ownership Guess: 15-20%

Will Wilcox

Everybody's favorite 'sleeper' this week is Drake's favorite golfer, 'Wayyyyyyy Up Will Wilcox.' For good reason too, as all the stats check out, and he's ranked first in sand save percentage and 16th in driving accuracy. He's playing too well to fade, as he has two top eight finishes in the last three weeks GPP Ownership Guess: 20-25%

Middle Tee Plays

Russel Knox - DK Salary $8,500 - two top 10s in last four starts - 4th PROX & 26th Driving Accuracy

Harris English - DK Salary $8,300 - great cash game and GPP play - top 34 in TD, P5S, DD & SGP

Steven Bowditch - DK Salary $8,400 - upside for GPP and good price/safety for cash - 12th in sand save %, 59th P5S, 22nd DD & 2nd in scrambling

Jason Bohn - DK Salary $8,100 - last two starts inside the top 13 - top 5 in DA & Prox

Andy Sullivan - DK Salary $8,100 - great skills and current form - 17th in Euro Tours 'Race to Dubai' with two wins this season

William McGirt - DK Salary $7,700 - solid form - 34 Prox & 23rd DA

Ollie Scheiderjans - DK Salary $7,700 - highly skilled, but also being highly touted this week so ownership could skyrocket - 4/4 cuts made

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Hudson Swafford - DK Salary $5,900 - 6/7 cuts made - 7th Prox, 26th DD, 34th SGP, 10th TD & 37th SGP

Vaughn Taylor - DK Salary $6.400 - good form, 5/6 cuts made , safe for cash as well

Zac Blair - DK Salary $6,000 - 21st in sand save %, 20th SGP & 42nd DA

Bryce Molder - DK Salary $6,900 - last three cuts made, including a top six - top 34 in DA, SCR & SGP

Fades

I like Rickie Fowler this week, he's having a great season and has proven he can close out tournaments with great fields. That being said, he's going to be over 30% owned in GPP's, so fading him, although not altogether, could be a very savvy strategy. I will have a few Fowler lineups, but will be cheering against him due to his expected high ownership. Good luck!