PGA Pin Seeker 11-3-15

WGC HSBC Champions Preview

The Tour stays in Asia this week for a big WGC event in Shanghai, China. The venue is the Sheshan International Golf Club West Course, a par 72 layout that measures 7,266 yards. The 72 holes of stroke play will not have a cut either, so all players will participate in all four rounds, unless they withdraw. Twenty-six players who also played last week in Malaysia at the CIMB Classic will be in attendance, including winner Justin Thomas and runner-up Adam Scott. This event has a serious International feel to it, and not only because it is in China. Twenty-two countries will be represented this weekend, with the most coming from the USA with 17, and England with 13. As I will discuss later on in the statistical deep dive, this is a long-hitter's paradise, with eagles to be made on all of the par 5's. Also, all four of the par 3's are over 200 yards, so strong mid to long iron distance control will be vital. This season has started off with two players under 23 winning their first career events, Justin Thomas and Emiliano Grillo. The history here has seen more established players winning, as only one player who was ranked outside the top 30 in the world golf rankings has prevailed.

Key Stats for Sheshan International West Course

As mentioned earlier, this is a bomber's track, and I will be targeting distance over anything else. Going back to 2009, you see names like Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson who all bomb the driver. Bubba and DJ were second in Driving Distance (DD) the years they won, and Phil was 13th. To pair with that, Eagle average is a secondary stat I looked at. The next key stat is Par 5 Scoring (P5S), with four of them on the course you need to make birdies and some eagles. Every player in the top 5 two years ago finished the season in the top 52, and Bubba Watson was first on tour last year in his winning season. Finally, Par 3 Scoring (P3S) cracks the key stat list, which doesn't happen often. Bubba and DJ were both inside the top 8 in years they won, and Rickie Fowler was 18th last year when he finished the year in 18th. I will also be using a steady dose of course history when making my lineup decisions. On to the picks….

Top Pin Seekers

Rory McIroy

In four appearances here, his worst finish is sixth place. He bombs it, kills par 5's, and is in great form with two top-6 finishes in his last four stars. He's the highest priced player on Draftkings at $12,300, so it won't be easy to construct a great lineup with him. GPP Ownership Guess: 6-11%

Bubba Watson

Defending champ with a game that perfectly suits this track. Four top 10's in his last six starts worldwide, and second in Eagle average in 2015 GPP Ownership Guess: 20-25%

Dustin Johnson

Former winner here, and like Bubba, has four top 10's in his last six worldwide starts. Depressed price compared to Rory and Spieth with same upside, but not consistency. Third in Eagle average GPP Ownership Guess: 7-12%

Middle Tee Plays

Justin Thomas DKSalary $9,400 - great current form, will be highly owned - top 15 in P5S, DD & Eagle average

Paul Casey DK Salary - five top 10's here, good current form - top 35 in P5S, DD & Eagle average

Sergio Garcia DK Salary $9,100 - great course history with a win and 4th - top 50 in DD & P5S

Martin Kaymer DK Salary $9,100 - four top 10's here including a win

Branden Grace DK Salary $9,000 - good current form - top 20 on Euro Tour in DD

Patrick Reed DK Salary $8,900 - great current form with back-to-back top 10's - top 50 in P3S & P5S

Emiliano Grillo DK Salary $8,400 - great current form with multiple wins in last 5 weeks

GPP Dart Board Dreams

Lee Westwood DK Salary $8,100 - 11th last week and three top 10's here - 25th in DD

Charl Schwartzel DK Salary $8,100 - good current form, two top 10's here - 24th in DD

Scott Piercy DK Salary $8,100 - great form, two top-7 finishes in last five starts - top 41 in all three key stats

Thorbjorn Olesen DK Salary $7,100 - 6th last year , good current form with win last month

Robert Streb DK Salary $7,100 - way under priced - 2nd in P3S

Matt Jones DK Salary $6,900 - top 53 in Eagle average, DD & P5S