Beginner's Journey into MLB DFS- Week 5

By: Travis Mangone, Updated May 12, 2015

MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit

Beginner's Journey into MLB DFS Week 5

Oh what a week it was here in my fifth DFS week of the MLB season. I have been going through my week long journey with you all to try and share some of my advice that I am learning to hopefully help you out in your daily research. I can't wait to discuss my lineup of the week with you all because at one point I was winning $3,000 and in second place in the Squeeze on FanDuel. I actually stayed up there for an hour and it was a fun sweat, but I will get to that later on in my article. As I mentioned last week, I switched over from DraftKings to FanDuel because it is just easier for me to work a 9:00-5:00 and only pick one pitcher. Picking one pitcher alone is stressful enough, but to add a second one in the mix is more than I want to handle. My overall evaluation on the transition to FanDuel was a good one, and I will discuss more below.

Bankroll Approach

Last week, I decided to dump my bankroll from DraftKings over to FanDuel, and thankfully it was an easy transition. I still played on Draftkings last week, but at the end of the week I ended up profiting about $50. Honestly, not half bad with the transition over, but there is certainly room for improvement. It was a tough week because I call this week every year the week of Mom. Yes, it was Mother's Day, but it's also my mom's birthday during that week. So on Thursday -- when I usually finalize lineups -- I was buying gifts, and then Sunday, we had Mother's Day brunch at 12:30 EST. Of course I had to be leaving for brunch at noon and getting ready at about 11:40, so I had to end my research at 11:30. I probably should have just waited to play the late slate only, but I played the all-day slate and basically lost every match. Luckily, I killed it on the late slate and was able to break even for the day. Thankfully, this week I have no distractions at all and I believe I am going to have a successful week. My new research approach has been very helpful; I have decided to digest less information from other people and hone in more on my own information. Sometimes we take in so much information and then it clouds our judgement. Taking this approach has made me think clearer and, yes, at times I have noticed I am on the right guys and other times I may miss out on a nice play, but I am going to try and find a way to make sure I do not miss out on a great obvious play anymore.

Cash Game Strategy

The big debate I have heard about baseball all season long is the debate of BvP. Is it real or is it a myth? I have actually come to the conclusion I value it in my research. I looked into BvP a lot this week and decided if you have a great BvP I am going to target you and try and get you in my lineup. Doing so was successful last week. For instance, last night I decided to take a bunch of players that had great BvPs and throw them in my lineup. They were Dustin Pedroia (4.75), Billy Butler (5.5), Ryan Braun (2.5), Evan Longoria (-1) and Ubaldo Jimenez (18). The number in parenthesis next to the player's name is what they scored on FanDuel. I have decided every day I am going to find four batters and one pitcher who have a great history of BvP, gather the data together and see if my thought on BvP is supported by data. I have heard many people say they have looked at all the data, but I honestly think it is very true and I will be implementing those BvP plays in my cash games. Most likely not my pitchers because if you played Ubaldo in a cash game last night let's say you would have been crazy. I did throw him in a tournament, though, but sadly didn't cash.

Tournament Strategy

Now that I am finally in my groove and have figured out how much to play each night in MLB and what game types to play, I have decided each slate to treat myself to one tournament. It kind of gives me a way to be a little looser with that team and does not make me cram a million different stacks. I pick my spots and roll with them. I believe doing that does not make me try to get too much exposure where I overreach for players. Hopefully when I do play more teams in the future this practice will help me be more successful as well. I firmly believe if you want to be successful in life you need some incentive and, yes, money is incentive, but sometimes it doesn't feel real when it is in your bankroll. An incentive I have made for myself is that if I have a positive week by more than $50, I will treat myself to a $25 qualifier or a tournament. I love playing the tournaments for bigger money, but it can certainly eat your bankroll. I love it so much I figured why not just make an incentive out of it? Hopefully next week when I am talking some tournament strategy and my lineup of the week I will be discussing a qualifier winner or a big top finish in another tournament!

Lineup of the week

My lineup of the week is posted below. I was pretty pleased with the team I put together until I realized I had Salvador Perez in my lineup and he was not even playing! I don't know how it slipped past me. It just seemed that he fit so well in my lineups, and I play him frequently. This lineup also was in the top 10 for about an hour, so overall it was a fun Saturday early sweat!

Looking back at my team, I knew it was going to be a winner when I entered it. You know that feeling when you make a team and you are pretty pleased with it? That is exactly what I felt when I made this team. I knew Drew Hutchison was in a great spot. Boston's offense was looking horrid which led me to the decision to pencil him in my tournament. Hutchison is a tournament type of pitcher who has tremendous strikeout upside but is volatile. I love targeting pitchers who are like Hutchison, which is why I targeted Ubaldo Jimenez last night. They offer high strikeout upside in a great matchup but are volatile. The idea that a pitcher can just implode makes DFSers cringe and drives their ownership down, which I love! I will continue to target those types of pitchers in my tournaments.

As you can tell looking at my teams, I had a set of two stacks, one with Baltimore and Kansas City. My thought process on these two teams was that the wind was blowing out in both stadiums. I had one obvious stack along with a contrarian one and most of my players that fit in with the stack had home run upside. One of the keys in making a tournament team that can win big is making sure you have bats around the stacks that have big hitters built in. Guys like Jose Bautista and Yoenis Cespedes did not manage to go yard but did manage to put together some decent numbers on the day.

The hour long sweat was actually real and it doesn't seem like it because I ended in 956^th, but when you are high on the leaderboards and your winnings say $3000, you start daydreaming. Not only was it real because of the place I was in, but there were only two games that were starting at 4:00 left on the slate, and although I had no exposure to it, the Indians game was looking at possible rain and thunderstorms throughout the day! Then I was thinking that if the Nationals' game has a low total on the day, Hutchison can go the distance, and I get a pinch-hit homer from Perez, I am set! Then when Bautista had a man on base, I was thinking that a home run puts me in first place! Bautista got walked and Edwin Encarnacion hit a three-run homer and the rest is history. I was in 30^th place now and just hoping to have a nice finish, but overall it was fun because at that point all my cash games were going to finish in the money and I had a late night slate to start grinding at.

Things to Improve on

Always improving and perfecting your craft is a key component to fantasy. This week is going to be pretty simple, and I am planning on just perfecting what I did last week so I can be even more profitable this week.