Chicago Cubs - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

With 97 wins last year, the Cubs had the third most wins in the majors. They finished third in the National League Central. Talk about a tough crowd. They added some pieces to the offense and the rotation this offseason, and they're poised to be one of the best teams in the bigs. A cursory glance at the lineup's numbers since 2013 against right-handed pitching is enough create tantalizing thoughts of stacking them from top to bottom -- or bottom to top if you want to be creative and wrap-around stack -- against righties. The rotation is loaded with talent and features the 2015 National League Cy Young Award winner, and all five members of the rotation have daily baseball value.

Park Factors

The park factors for Wrigley Field don't tell the whole story. They shift wildly, sometimes as frequently as game to game, due to the stadium's proximity to Lake Michigan. How the wind is blowing off of the lake can drastically impact the park factors. Vegas or offshore oddsmakers won't release over/under totals for games at Wrigley Field until the day of the game due to how important the wind is. With that in mind, the park factors listed in the table should be taken with a grain of salt. When the over/under totals for games are low due to the win blowing in, consider Wrigley Field a home-run suppressing environment. When the wind is blowing out, especially during warmer summer days/nights, consider it a homer-friendly venue that you'll want to avoid using fly-ball pitcher in but will want to load up on fly-ball hitters in.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Miguel Montero - 12/72

Kyle Schwarber - 52/72

Kyle Schwarber will likely get the bulk of his playing time in the outfield, but he'll also catch. He's a below average pitch framer, but that's not why he'll be in the lineup for the Cubbies. Miguel Montero, on the other hand, is an excellent pitch framer. Last year's no fluke, either, as he ranked seventh out of 79 catchers in per game pitch framing among catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches in 2014, according to StatCorner. He's an asset for the pitchers in the rotation to throw to.

Spring Training Storyline

Will Javier Baez play second base when Zobrist plays the outfield?

Starlin Castro was shipped off to the Yankees via trade, and that clears out one young infielder from the logjam. Javier Baez has, however, been passed at shortstop by Addison Russell, third base is manned by Kris Bryant, and second base will primarily be filled by Ben Zobrist. Zorilla is a fantastic outfielder, though, and could see playing time out there when Schwarber catches. He could also play some outfield if the Cubs simply opt to give Schwarber the occasional off day against lefties, opening the door for some playing time for the right-handed hitting Baez. Baez also received outfield playing time in winter ball, and he could see time out there as a reserve. Where he plays and what eligibility he carries will play a big role in his daily baseball value. He cut back on his strikeout rate at the Triple-A level last year (24.3%) while continuing to hit for power (13 homers and .203 ISO in 313 plate appearances). His lightning quick bat generates plus power and could make him a GPP option, especially if he remains middle infield eligible. In the outfield, he becomes much less interesting due to the depth of the position.

2016 Lineup Outlook

The Cubs added long-time Joe Maddon favorite, Ben Zobrist, via free agency. The versatile fielder projects to see the bulk of his time at second base since the outfield is already loaded, and his above average hitter/OBP skills fit perfectly atop the order. He walked in 11.6% of his plate appearances last year and his .359 OBP is only a few ticks higher than his career mark of .355. His power is merely average, and he stole a career low three bases, but getting on base at the top of what projects to be a high-octane offense will provide Zobrist a lot of run scoring upside and plenty of daily baseball value. His since 2013 numbers are close when comparing his work against lefties and righties, but his numbers against lefties are dragged down by a dreadful 2013 in which he managed just a 79 wRC+. He's surpassed a 150 wRC+ against southpaws each of the last two years. He's a good option against righties (and he'll be part of many Cubs stacks this year since they collectively murder righties), but he's a force against lefties.

The Cubs made a big splash by signing Jason Heyward. J-Hey spent the 2015 season on the division rival and National League Central winning St. Louis Cardinals. His addition helps the Cubs and his subtraction from the Cardinals is an added bonus. A lot of his value is derived from his glove, but he's also firmly established himself as a well above average hitter against righties. His power hasn't materialized the way many envisioned save for a .263 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 2012, but he hits with average power and gets on base at a very high clip (.369 OBP versus righties since 2013). He's a strong base stealer with 43 in 50 attempts the last two years, and manager Joe Maddon is notorious for sending his runners (especially the efficient ones) often. Heyward could best the career-high 23 bases he stole last year in his first with the Cubs, and like Zobrist, he'll have big run scoring upside hitting in front of the heart of the order. For a non-slugger and a guy who's not a burner, he has quite a bit of upside.

Kris Bryant was everything he was advertised to be. The hyped rookie ripped 26 homers with a .213 ISO and tons of plate discipline (11.8% walk rate). He did also come with the high-strikeout tendencies advertised fanning in 30.6% of his plate appearances. As an added bonus, he swiped 13 bases in 17 stolen base attempts. Bryant was superb against lefties and righties tallying an ISO north of .200 against each. He wasn't hitting cheap homers and ranked 45th in average home run and fly ball distance, per Baseball Heat Maps. He didn't hit lasers like some of the other premier power hitters, but his average fly ball and line drive exit velocity checked in above average. Bryant's just scratching the surface and is a burgeoning superstar who is a strong play in all game types against either handedness of pitcher.

Anthony Rizzo blossomed into a legitimate superstar in 2014 and validated his breakout with a tantalizing encore. As a cherry on top, his 17 stolen bases last year were one more than he totaled in over 400 games played in the majors since 2011. He bested 30 homers for the second season in a row, and his ISO exceeded .230 for the second year, too. He's walked in more than 11% over his plate appearances over the last three years and his OBP is above .385 the last two years. He does it all. The sweet-swinging lefty hits for power, average and works walks, and he should once again hit double-digit steals since he was fairly effective in snagging his 17 steals last year (73.9% success rate). After struggling with lefties initially in the majors, last year he posted an identical 145 wRC+ against righties and lefties. He's still a better play against righties than lefties thanks to featuring more power against right-handed pitchers, but he's turned into a matchup proof stud over the last two years.

Once a heart-of-the-order hitter for the Diamondbacks, Miguel Montero now finds himself hitting lower in a loaded lineup for the Cubs. After back-to-back poor seasons by his standards in the desert, Montero rebounded and rattled off a 107 wRC+ with a juicy 12.2% walk rate and .345 OBP. His 15 homers were his highest total since 2012, and last year was his best offensive season since that year. After being the free bingo square in the lineup for left-handed pitchers over the last two year (and much of his career), Montero was excellent against them last season netting a 10.7% walk rate, .213 ISO, .342 wOBA and 117 wRC+. He was surprisingly actually better against lefties than righties in 2015. His track record makes him a safer play against right-handed pitchers, but the numbers under the hood suggest last year's success against lefties was no fluke.

Addison Russell played his first full season in the majors at the ripe old age of 21 years old. Just keeping his head above water was an accomplishment for a player who was age appropriate for spending a season at the Double-A level. He hit 13 homers with a 90 wRC+ and walked in a slightly better than league average 8.0% of his plate appearances (league average was 7.7% last year, per FanGraphs). The most promising part of Russell's rookie season is that he adjusted to the majors and was much better in the second half than the first half (31.1% strikeout rate, .128 ISO, .288 wOBA and 79 wRC+ in the first half compared to a 25.8% strikeout rate, .168 ISO, .320 wOBA and 101 wRC+ in the second half). Russell oozes upside and has legitimate breakout upside as a gifted youngster, and the only knock on him is that the Cubs' lineup is so deep at talented that it will be difficult or next to impossible for him to claim a premium lineup spot. If you're looking for a silver lining, if Maddon continues to hit the pitcher eighth, Russell sits in a great spot in the nine-hole for wrap-around stacks.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Jake Arrieta's 2015 season, namely his second half, was legendary. He allowed just nine earned runs in 107.1 innings in the second half. To say he can't keep up that pace is the "no kidding" statement of the century. The former Oriole has dominated for two years with the Cubs, and he does everything you look for an elite hurler to do. His strikeout rate is big, his walk rate (5.5%) is small and he's difficult to hit the ball in the air against (56.2% ground-ball rate). Arrieta is going nowhere, and he's a top-five pitcher in the majors.

Jon Lester was better than your run-of-the-mill number-two starter in his first season with the Lovable (No Longer) Losers. He bested 200 innings pitched for the fourth straight year retained the exquisite control he showcased in 2014 that had never been seen before in his career. His 48.9% ground-ball rate was his highest mark since 2012, and the only blemish in Lester's statistical profile is his much publicized inability to control the running game (44 stolen bases allowed in 32 games). He's a strong daily game option in all game types, but daily gamers should also take note when speedster face him as they'll have big stolen-base upside.

Heyward wasn't the only member of the 2015 National League Central winner the Cubs signed away in the offseason as they added John Lackey to bolster their rotation, too. Lackey pitched to a sub-three ERA, but his ERA estimators aren't much different than the previous two years in which he pitched to a mid-to-high threes ERA, and that's a more realistic expectation for this season. His strikeout rate has hovered within a point of 20% each of the last three years, and he's kept his walk rate south of 6% in each of those seasons, too. He's not a stud, but he's a very reliable starter who will rack up quality starts with regularity while striking out batters at around a league average clip.

Kyle Hendricks finished last year with an ERA just under four (3.95), but his ERA estimators liked his work even more. A sub-70% LOB% hurt him, but, for the most part, he hasn't really had problems with stranding runners in the past. Over the last two years, he's made 45 starts for the Cubs and recorded a 3.49 ERA that's supported by his 3.34 FIP, 3.46 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA. His 8.1% swinging strike rate doesn't support his surge in strikeout rate, but his 25.99% whiff rate on his changeup, per Brooks Baseball, indicates he does have a strong put-away pitch that could help him post a strikeout rate better than his swinging strike rate suggests he should. For 2016 projection purposes, I'd hazard a guess his strikeout rate this year is closer to his 20.2% rate in the majors for his career than his 22.6% mark last season. Lefties ripped him for a .343 wOBA last year, but with a changeup serving as his best secondary, it's unlikely they continue to hammer him, and after adding in his 2014 work, that number drops to a .317 wOBA. Hendricks falls into the Lackey group of quality pitcher who can be used in all game types but doesn't have a sky-high ceiling.

Jason Hammel's full-season totals last year were strong, but he crumbled down the stretch posting a 3.12 FIP in the first half and a 4.54 FIP in the second half. He struggled with long balls in the second half (1.61 HR/9) and suffered through a bloated .335 BABIP allowed. There isn't a sizable velocity drop to point to as the smoking gun, and the whiff rates on all of his pitches varied greatly from month to month, so there's nothing to pinpoint there, either. As it stands, evaluating his whole body of work last year seems to be the prudent move since there's no reason to think his second half is a true representation of a long-term concern. The righty recorded a career-high 24.2% strikeout rate with the second lowest walk rate (5.6%) of his career. His 10.9% swinging strike rate supports his juicy strikeout rate and was a career high. Hammel has a pinch more upside than both Hendricks and Lackey since his strikeout upside is greater and his ERA should join theirs in the mid-to-high threes.

Stock Watch

Up - Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber was selected in the first round of the 2014 MLB Amateur Draft and quickly dispatched of minor league pitching before crushing 16 homers with a .241 ISO in 273 plate appearances for his parent club. He has patience (13.2% walk rate) that belies his youth. That said, let's get back to the pop, which is very much for real. Schwarber ranked fifth in average home run and fly ball distance (308.20 feet), according to Baseball Heat Maps. He was hitting lasers, too, ranking 10th among batters with at least 100 at-bats in average fly ball and line drive exit velocity, according to Baseball Savant. The slugging catcher/outfielder wasn't hitting cheapies. He was dreadful against lefties and shouldn't be used against them, but he annihilated the offerings of right-handed pitching and is a strong play in the outfield and an elite one at catcher in daily games when facing a righty.

Down - Jorge Soler

Jorge Soler remains an exciting young player with a loud bat, but he's going to have a hard time cracking the top five in the lineup with Schwarber bypassing him in the lineup pecking order and with the addition of both Zobrist and Heyward. Hitting down order, even in a loaded lineup, is reason enough to net him the down arrow. With Heyward miscast as a center fielder, Soler is also a prime candidate to be lifted for a defensive replacement late in games so that Heyward can be moved to his natural position in right field (in fairness, Schwarber is a lesser defender and a strong candidate, too). Don't put too much stock in Soler's reverse platoon split in his brief big league career, his minor league track record doesn't support it. In 168 minor league plate appearances against lefties, he owns a .331 ISO and 1.100 OPS, according to Minor League Central. He's been excellent against righties, too, with a .212 ISO and .873 OPS in 453 minor league plate appearances against them. Soler's a high-upside, young outfielder, and the down stock arrow is far from sounding the death knell for his daily baseball value.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.