Chicago White Sox - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The White Sox were active in the free-agent market last year, but their splashes resulted in only a fourth place finish in the American League Central with 76 wins. This offseason hasn't been as splashy, but there are a number of fresh faces. The offense features some punch, but the lineup doesn't feature much length unless a few players either bounce back or play at a level not previously seen. The rotation is top heavy and anchored by one of the top pitchers in the majors. There are some strong daily baseball options, but there are also serious question marks all over the roster. The stackability of the roster isn't great, but there is some mini-stack or hooking potential.

Park Factors

U.S. Cellular Field is a bandbox. The obvious park factor that results from its dimensions is a bump to homers. The boost is 12% for both lefties and righties. The less obvious park factor is a reduction in doubles/triples. Without spacious gaps, lefties are knocked 7% for doubles/triples and righties see them reduced by 10%. Using fly-ball pitchers is ill-advised, but fire up the fly-ball hitters. Even with a uptick in homers, the park actually plays slightly pitcher friendly reducing run scoring 7% to lefties and 2% to righties. As long as a pitcher doesn't have an extreme fly-ball rate, they should actually benefit from pitching in this bandbox.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Dioner Navarro - 55/72

Alex Avila - 59/72

This duo isn't as bad as that featured by the Tigers, but former Tiger Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro aren't good pitch framers. The 2014 pitch framing ranks for Avila (48 out of 79) and Navarro (65 out of 79) don't provide any reason for optimism for improved numbers this season. The downgrade from last year's pair of backstops, Tyler Flowers and Geovany Soto, is big. Flowers was tied for first in per game pitch framing and Soto ranked 22nd. Chris Sale's stock remains unchanged by his new battery mates, but everyone else in the rotation should be dinged a bit for who they'll be throwing to.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will start at catcher?

Both Avila and Navarro were signed to one-year deals this offseason. As their framing numbers suggest, they're evenly matched in that aspect of catching. Neither catcher does a great job of controlling the running game, either. If both are viewed as equals -- or close to equals -- defensively, then a platoon would make a ton of sense. Navarro has spanked left-handed pitching the last three years and Avila's been an above average offensive player against righties for his career. Avila is coming off posting just a 94 wRC+ against righties, though. Sifting through the splits, Navarro against a lefty is the most daily baseball useful matchup.

Who will start at shortstop?

Alexei Ramirez is no longer a member of the White Sox, and the door is open for a youngster to grab the shortstop job, but which one? Tyler Saladino is listed atop the depth chart at MLB.com with Leury Garcia behind him. Carlos Sanchez played one game at shortstop in 2014 for the White Sox, so he could be in the mix, too. None are terribly exciting, but the one who's played the worst of the trio in the bigs is the most intriguing from a daily baseball perspective. Garcia owns a 14 wRC+ in 281 plate appearances in the majors. Last year, he totaled just 15 plate appearances for the White Sox, but he rattled off a 113 wRC+ with 30 stolen bases in 385 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He's stolen 19 bases in the majors, and speed is his calling card. If he starts and hits even a little bit, his speed could make him a GPP salary relief dice roll.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Adam Eaton is a better real-life player than daily baseball option. That's not to say he's a non-option, as basically any leadoff hitter has some value under the right circumstances, but he's only a decent -- and inefficient -- base stealer with 33 in 50 attempts the last two years combined. He hit 14 homers last year but only four in hit first season and a half in the majors. Forget about using him against lefties, and only use him when the White Sox have a big over/under total against an average or worse righty.

Jose Abreu doesn't come to mind when you think of prototypical number-two hitter, and if you weren't paying attention last year, you might have missed that he tallied 148 plate appearances from the two-hole. He recorded more plate appearances hitting third, but he hit second the last 10 games of the season. Ideally he slots third since he'll have more RBI chances hitting there, but second isn't a terrible spot in the lineup for a player who can bat himself around. Abreu is a top option at first base against lefties and righties, despite what a cursory glance at his numbers against left-handed pitchers last year might suggest. His .120 ISO, .288 wOBA and 78 wRC+ against lefties in 2015 might seem like cause for concern, but he walked more and struck out less against lefties than righties, and his batted ball data is very similar between each handedness of pitcher. If gamers are snoozing, he could be a low-owned, high-upside GPP play against southpaws early on.

Melky Cabrera has alternated good and bad offensive seasons the last four years, and since he's coming off of a bad year, he'll obviously have a good one. Seriously, though, the Melkman's a maddening player to attempt to figure out. His batted ball data is very similar between his good and bad years, and nothing stands out as an explanation for why he completely lacks consistency. Cabrera's had a few strong offensive seasons against lefties (2011, 2012 and 2014), but he's better against righties and more consistent against them. Even in a down season in 2015, he recorded a .131 ISO, .323 wOBA and 102 wRC+. He's an unexciting option against righties, but if the matchup is right, he's in play as a glue guy who won't cost an arm and a leg.

Todd Frazier rode a big first half with the Reds to the All-Star game in Cincinnati as a member of the Reds, and he won the Home Run Derby. His offense crumbled in the second half. Obviously his second half collapse was a Home Run Derby hangover (this sentence was written in sarcasm font). Don't overvalue Frazier's second half, but don't look at his first half as a true representation of his talent level, either. The New Jersey product set a career high with 35 homers, but he's not some lumbering brute and stole 13 bases too after stealing 20 the season before. Frazier's demonstrated above average power against righties, and that puts him in play to chase a homer against a righty, but his floor isn't high. He's considerably better against lefties, and he punished them last year raking to the tune of a .346 ISO, .377 wOBA and 138 wRC+.

Brett Lawrie is on the move again. Last offseason, the Blue Jays dealt him to the Athletics in a multi-player swap involving Josh Donaldson. Whoops. This year, Lawrie will once again hit in a homer-friendly home park after a year in the spacious O. Co. Coliseum. Lawrie's never come close to matching the production he teased in his 171 plate appearance debut back in 2011, but he did hit a career-high 16 homers for the A's last year. He could set a new career high this season with the homer-amplifying nature of U.S. Cellular Field. His floor's low, but he can occasionally put the ball in the seats and won't carry a big salary.

A strong case could be made for Avisail Garcia earning the dubious down arrow in the Stock Watch section. He's the type of player who looks the part of a do-it-all type when he steps off the bus, but his physical tools haven't translated to loud game skills. Even his numbers against lefties -- the handedness pitcher he does his best work against -- aren't exciting.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Hot damn, Chris Sale. Among qualified pitchers in 2015, the tall drink of water ranked second in strikeout rate, tied for eighth in walk rate (4.9%), tied for 14th in WHIP (1.09), fifth in FIP, second in xFIP (2.60), second in SIERA (2.52) and third in swinging strike rate (14.6%). There's not much analysis necessary with Sale. He's a stud and arguably a top-five pitcher in the majors.

What if I told you Sale wasn't the lefty with the lowest ERA in the rotation for the White Sox last year? You'd think I'm crazy and making things up, right? Well, that honor actually belonged to Jose Quintana (3.36 ERA for him compared to 3.41 for Sale). Perhaps my perception is off, but it feels like Quintana doesn't get the love in the national baseball media he deserves. Among qualified pitchers last year, he cracked the top 20 in FIP, top 25 in xFIP (3.51) and top 30 in SIERA (3.62). Like the sun rising in the east and setting in the west, Quintana is predictable. In four seasons with the White Sox, his highest ERA was 3.76 in 2012 and his lowest was 3.32 in 2014. His ERA fell between those two marks in his other two seasons in the majors with the White Sox. Quintana's strikeout rate has been above 20% each of the last two years, his ground-ball rate ballooned to 47.1% after checking in below 45% in 2013 and 2014, and his walk rate dropped to a career low 5.1%. The lefty doesn't even have a platoon split to sweat as he's allowed a .302 wOBA to lefties and a .310 wOBA to righties in his career. There are no special instructions for using Quintana that are necessary.

John Danks has been a punching bag with an ERA north of 4.70 each of the last four years. There's never a good reason to use Danks on your daily baseball rosters. There is, however, plenty of incentive to load up right-handed batters against him. Among qualified starters since 2013, Danks' .351 wOBA allowed to 1,654 right-handed batters is the fourth highest. Stack. Righties. Against. Danks.

Oh what a difference a year makes for Erik Johnson. In 2014, he was beaten like a drum with a 6.73 ERA in 20 Triple-A starts and a 6.46 ERA in five major league starts. Last season, he dominated at the Triple-A level in 22 starts recording a 2.57 FIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He made a half-dozen starts for the parent club and turned in a lucky 3.34 ERA. The righty allowed an eye-popping 52.5% fly-ball rate that will likely be disastrous if he repeats it in his home park this season. His strikeout rate was below average and his 11.3% walk rate was ugly. There's no reason to use him on your daily baseball rosters, but he could be a great pitcher to chase a homer (or homers) against.

Stock Watch

Up - Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon was selected with the third pick in the 2014 MLB Amateur Draft and pitched fewer than 40 inning in the minors before reaching the majors. Last year was a trial by fire, and even though his 11.7% walk rate is poor, his other numbers are quite good for a player with his extremely limited professional experience. The southpaw's second half walk rate of 9.7% is palatable since it was accompanied by a 22.8% strikeout rate. In the second half, he also earned a 3.96 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 4.00 SIERA with a 10.0% whiff rate. Rodon throws hard for a lefty with an average fourseam fastball velocity of 94.14 mph and sinker velo of 93.66 mph. His secondary pitches include a slider and changeup. His slider netted a 19.67% whiff rate and the change was good for a 15.49% whiff rate. Making advancements with his control would help Rodon take a step forward, but he also needs to improve against righties (.350 wOBA allowed). With a changeup that can miss bats in his arsenal, the potential is there for him to make the necessary improvements against righties. Rodon's upside is immense.

Down - Adam LaRoche

When the Pale Hose inked Adam LaRoche to a two-year contract for $25 million last offseason, they didn't expect him to play like brother Andy LaRoche. His 12 homers and .133 ISO would have been underwhelming from a light-hitting middle infielder, and they were completely unacceptable from a first baseman/designated hitter. His 27.5% strikeout rate was his highest since striking out in 28.0% of his plate appearances in 2010, and there aren't many positives to glean from his underlying stats. The most positive thing that can be said about LaRoche is that he's only a year removed from a .221 ISO, .384 wOBA and 146 wRC+ against righties in his last year with the Nationals. At 36-years old, though, LaRoche is in the twilight of his career, and last year could represent a cliff season from which he can't bounce back.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.