Cincinnati Reds - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Reds finished last in the National League Central in 2015 and their 64 wins were the second fewest in the majors. They're in a full-blown rebuild now. They'll be battling to stay out of the National League Central basement, but they're not devoid of talent. They have one legitimate superstar and a few more useful pieces. There's some upside on this roster, but it comes with plenty of questions.

Park Factors

Great American Ball Park is one of the better ballparks for power in the league. Lefties receive a huge lift of 29% for taters and righties get a 13% lift. Run scoring doesn't get much of a bump, though. Batted ball type goes a long way in determining value of players playing in Cincinnati. Fly-ball hitters get a bump and fly-ball pitchers are toxic.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Devin Mesoraco - Not Ranked

Tucker Barnhart - 34/72

Devin Mesoraco's hip shortened his season and kept him from catching, but in 2014, he ranked 53 out of 79 catchers in pitch framing per game. With that in mind, he's a below average framer and a year of rust is unlikely to help that. Tucker Barnhart doesn't really move the needle either direction sitting in the the middle of the pack.

Spring Training Storylines

Will Jose Peraza win a starting job?

The Reds agreed with the Nationals on a deal shipping them Brandon Phillips, but he utilized his 10/5 rights to block the trade. With Phillips back at second base, there isn't an obvious open for Jose Peraza. The crown jewel of the Todd Frazier deal does have shortstop experience, and general manager Dick Williams also notes that Peraza "has played center field." A utility role could await Peraza, but the returning Zack Cozart should probably be looking over his shoulder.

Cozart's defense grades out well at FanGraphs, and that will help earn him some leash at the position. He's a non-option in daily baseball against righties. He was hammering lefties before his injury last year (.239 ISO, .384 wOBA and 143 wRC+) and coming off a career year offensively against them in 2014 (.121 ISO, .307 wOBA and 91 wRC+). If his gains from last year career over -- even not entirely -- to this year, he'll be in play against lefties.

Peraza's daily baseball value will be largely determined by what position or positions he's eligible at. He doesn't do enough to carry value if the bulk of his playing time comes in the outfield. If he carries shortstop or second base eligibility, he'll have fringe value thanks to his ability to hit for average and steal bases. He stole 33 bases in 118 games played at the Triple-A level and stole three more in seven games in the majors. He makes a lot of contact, but doesn't pack any punch (sub .100 ISO in the upper minors). He's not a prospect to get excited about, but there isn't a lot to get excited about at the shortstop position in general and Peraza does have wheels.

Who will start in left field?

The battle for left field should primarily be between Scott Schebler and Adam Duvall. Schebler was one of the pieces acquired in the Frazier deal, and his Triple-A numbers suggest he could use more seasoning. In 485 plate appearances he hit 13 homers with 15 stolen bases, .322 wOBA and 91 wRC+. He hit three homers with a pair of stolen bases in a 40 plate appearance cup of coffee with the Dodgers last year, but with the Reds in a rebuild, they have no incentive to rush Schebler if they deem him in need of more minor league work.

Duvall is a first baseman who's been moved to the corner outfield. He might be a Quad-A player, but 149 plate appearances in the majors isn't enough to write him off yet. Power is his calling card and he hit five homers with a .266 ISO in 72 plate appearances with the Reds last year. He also swatted 30 homers in 541 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, but struggled in the International League with the Reds organization after taking advantage of the hitter-friendly environment in the Pacific Coast League with the Giant organization. Duvall has a reverse platoon split in his small big league sample size, but it doesn't line up with his minor league production. Since 2011, he has a .231 ISO and .834 OPS against righties and a .280 ISO and .926 OPS, per Minor League Central. He's a classic slugger without much patience, and his power and power-friendly park put him in GPP consideration.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Brandon Phillips' offensive trajectory entering last year was downward, but he bounced back, albeit not to his peak level. His .315 wOBA and 96 wRC+ were his best marks since 2012, but the most interesting number in his statistical profile was his 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts. He had stolen just seven bases in 13 attempts in the previous two years combined. Bryan Price's willingness to send baserunners helps Phillips' value a ton. He doesn't have a big platoon split, and he's a mediocre option against average or worse pitchers. If the starting pitcher and catcher battery he's facing does a poor job of controlling the running game, give Phillips a bump in value.

Devin Mesoraco totaled just 51 plate appearances, and because he was playing hurt, it's probably best to dismiss the year. His 2014 season was a breakout campaign in which he belted 25 homers in just 440 plate appearances, and his .260 ISO would have played at a corner infield position. As the table above indicates, Mesoraco hammers left-handed pitching and he should be used frequently against them, especially when he's at home since GABP plays to his strength which literally is his strength. The 27-year-old catcher struggled against righties initially, but I'll be using him against righties, too, due to his breakout production against them in 2014 (.272 ISO, .384 wOBA and 144 wRC+). His raw power is tantalizing, and that's best illustrated by him ranking 24th in average fly ball and home run distance in 2014, according to Baseball Heat Maps. Coming off of a year lost to injury, his ownership rate might be a bit lower than it should be out of the chute since he's not fresh in the mind of gamers.

Jay Bruce hit 30 or more homers in three straight years from 2011 through 2013, but he's struggled the last two years. At just 28-years old, those should have been peak seasons, and it's baffling to see him struggle. Making matters worse for him is that he's on the trade block. A move from playing home games at GABP could be crippling to his value that's nearly entirely tied to hitting dingers. Not all is terrible for Bruce, he did total a .209 ISO last year and he is an occasional base stealer with nine last year and 21 over the last two years combined. The lefty's never shown much of an aptitude for hitting his same-handed pitching counterparts, and his ISO against lefties has been south of .200 each of the last three years, making him a wasted roster spot against lefties in all game types. Since reaching the majors in 2008, Bruce has an ISO above .200 in all but two years (2010 and 2014) against righties including a .232 ISO last year. His flaws take him out of consideration in cash games for me, but in GPPs, he's a worthy investment thanks to his ability to provide a lucky fan in the outfield seats a souvenir.

Eugenio Suarez came out of nowhere to fill in more than admirably at shortstop for Cozart. He's slated to slide over to the hot corner to replace Frazier this season. In 2014, he hit 12 homers across three stops (Double-A, Triple-A and the majors), but he bested that total with 13 at the major league level and added another eight at the Triple-A level for good measure. He walked in only 4.3% of his plate appearances for the Reds, but he's shown much more patience hovering around a 10% walk rate in multiple minor league stops including a 10.9% walk rate for Triple-A Louisville last year. Suarez has been better against lefties than righties in the majors, and his minor league work supports that split (.187 ISO and .796 OPS against righties and .219 ISO and .901 OPS against lefties since 2011, per Minor League Central). He should enter the year with shortstop eligibility in daily games, but even when he sheds that for third base eligibility, he'll still be a strong play against southpaws.

Billy Hamilton might be the fastest player in the majors, but as the old saying goes, you can't steal first base. Through two seasons, Hamilton owns an ugly .287 OBP and 69 wRC+. His struggles resulted in him dropping from the leadoff spot to the ninth spot (behind the pitcher). Even though he struggles mightily to get on base, when he does, he's off to the races. Last year, he stole 57 bases and in 2014 he stole 56. His speed gives him a ceiling rarely attached to such a poor hitter. If he's able to make any advancements as a hitter, he could move to the top of the order where his speed would be a welcome addition on base. That's a big if, though, but as it stands he's a GPP viable play against pitcher/catcher batteries that struggle to control baserunners.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Anthony DeSclafani dealt with poor luck in his big league debut with the Marlins in 2014, but he was a serviceable starter for the Reds and a hell of a return for Mat Latos. His 45.1% ground-ball rate is fringe palatable for his homer-friendly home digs, and his walk and strikeout rates hover around league average. If the young righty wants his ERA to drop below four where his ERA estimators reside, he'll need to do a better job of neutralizing left-handed batters. Last year, lefties whacked him around to the tune of a .338 wOBA. He throws a changeup and held lefties to just a .200 batting average with it, per Brooks Baseball, so the potential for him improving is certainly there. He'll need to trust that pitch more, though, as he threw it only 12.14% of the time against left-handed batters. For now, reserve DeSclafani for usage against righty-laden lineups and queue up some left-handed batters against him.

Not everyone who evaluates prospects was sold Raisel Iglesias had the chops to start, but I'd say he probably changed the opinions of his detractors. His numbers in the table above include two relief appearances. In 16 starts, Iglesias coaxed grounders at a 47.0% clip with a 27.0% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 1.09 WHIP, 3.58 FIP, 3.21 xFIP, 3.21 SIERA and 11.8% swinging strike rate. His stats are drool inducing, but there is a fly in the ointment. Iglesias ceded a .332 wOBA to lefties. He struck out only 16.8% of the lefties he faced, but a .328 BABIP really killed him. Iglesias' batted ball data is damning, and even if he doesn't make any actual improvements, his BABIP should regress closer to league average. If, however, he does make improvements, look out, he could be something special since he's already death on righties (.271 wOBA allowed with a 34.8% strikeout rate). The hype machine hasn't fully cranked up for Iglesias just yet, and he's one of my favorite young pitchers. Iglesias is ready to be used in all daily baseball game types.

John Lamb was a highly-touted prospect but went under the knife for Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2011 season. He was eased back into action in 2012 and bombed in 2013. He kept his head above water at the Triple-A level in 2014, but it clicked for him in 2015. In 20 Triple-A starts split between the Royals' affiliate and the Reds' affiliate, he earned a 2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.9% walk rate and 25.8% strikeout rate. The southpaw was acquired as part of the Johnny Cueto haul and made 10 starts for the Reds. He kept missing bats and his walk rate was in line with what he posted in Triple-A that year, but the BABIP gods weren't kind (.376), he struggled to strand baserunners (69.3% LOB%) and he didn't induce many ground balls (37.7% ground-ball rate). Lamb's previously struggled with standing runners, but he posted an LOB% north of 72% since 2014, so he should improve there. His batted ball data doesn't support the bloated BABIP, either. Lamb's a candidate for substantial improvement from his 5.80 ERA, and his 10.6% swinging strike rate supports his above average strikeout contributions. He's still young and will probably have plenty of ups and downs, but he's a GPP pick with upside who will be under priced out of the gate due to his ugly ERA.

Brandon Finnegan was another piece of the Cueto deal. The lefty who grabbed headlines by reaching the majors and pitching out of the bullpen for the Royals during their 2014 World Series run after pitching in the college World Series in the same year, split time between the bullpen and the rotation. The bulk of his innings in the majors last year were tallied in relief. As a stater, Finnegan pitched 21 innings in four starts with a 46.7% ground-ball rate, 22.5% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 5.32 FIP, 3.85 xFIP and 3.84 SIERA. As you've probably guessed by the FIP, homers hurt him (five allowed in four starts, three in one of those games). Interestingly, his control was better as a starter for the Reds than it was starting in the minor or relieving in the majors. He's an unfinished product, but his 54.9% ground-ball rate in the majors bodes well for him navigating the pitfalls of pitching in a bandbox. He's a bit behind Lamb in terms of development, but he, too, has some GPP appeal. I'm not confident in Finnegan being polished to the point of trusting him right away, though.

Stock Watch

Up - Joey Votto

The only thing that seems to be able to slow Joey Votto down is himself, namely his body failing him. He played in just 62 games in 2014, but played in 158 last year and raked. Among qualified hitters, he ranked first in walk rate (20.6%), 20th in ISO (.228), second in OBP (.459), second in wOBA (.427) and tied for second in wRC+ (172). He's an elite hitter who has arguably the highest floor in the business thanks to his unmatched command of the strike zone and uncanny ability to barrel balls up (25.0% line drive rate and just a 1.5% infield fly-ball rate in 2015). Votto is awesome against lefties and righties and is in play against all pitchers in all parks on any given night of the year.

Down - Homer Bailey

Homer Bailey's elbow was barking, and ultimately he needed to undergo Tommy John surgery after just two starts in the second year of a $100+ million contract. His 2014 season was already a buzz kill since his strikeout rate dropped from 23.4% in 2013 to 20.5% that year, but last year was obviously a more damaging blow. Oddly, his strikeout rate drop coincided with a surge in swinging strike rate to a career-high 11.1% in 2014, per FanGraphs. Bailey expects to be ready by mid-May, per C. Trent Rosecrans. Unless Bailey shoves it against minor league competition during his rehab starts, gamers will want to watch his first few big league turns before trusting him on their daily teams. Perhaps he'll return to the 2013 form that helped net him a monster contract, but his stock is unquestionably down at the moment.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.