Cleveland Indians - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Indians were a semi-trendy World Series pick but fell short of that lofty expectation finishing third in the American League Central with 81 wins. The offense sputtered, reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber got off to a slow start (4.24 ERA in April) and it was all too much to overcome and reach the playoffs. The rotation ended up pitching extremely well and the offense had a few solid contributors. Big things are once again expected from the rotation and the offense has a few daily baseball relevant pieces.

Park Factors

When gamers think of the best offensive ballparks in the game, they probably don't immediately think of Progressive Field. It is just that, though, boosting all hit types and run scoring to both lefties and righties. The park boosts run scoring by 10%, kicks doubles/triples up 15% and 17% to lefties and righties, respectively and even provides a tiny uptick in homers. The elite members of the Indians' rotation can navigate their tricky home park, but don't even think about using a mediocre or worse starter in Cleveland.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Yan Gomes - 46/72

Roberto Perez - 25/72

Roberto Perez's pitch framing rank in 2015 was almost identical to his rank in 2014 (27th out of 79), but Yan Gomes dropped from 24th out of 79 to 46th out of 72. Gomes ranked 10th out of 78 in 2013, so he's trending in the wrong direction with his framing, but last year probably is closer to the floor than what should be expected from him this year. Neither Gomes are Perez are butchers behind the plate, but neither are deceptive wizards who will be getting all of the close calls. Most members of the rotation don't need much assistance in tormenting opposing hitters, but Trevor Bauer stands out as the pitcher who'd benefit the most from Gomes reverting back to his 2010 form or being caught by Perez if he's the superior pitch framer again this year.

Spring Training Storyline

Will Rajai Davis be used as more than a platoon outfielder?

Rajai Davis shouldn't be pressed into an everyday role, but the potential is there with converted third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall in right field and the inexperienced Abraham Almonte patrolling center field. Davis should be used exclusively against lefties on the light side of a platoon with either Chisenhall or Almonte. Since 2013, Davis has recorded a .193 ISO, .369 wOBA and 136 wRC+ against southpaws. He's also one a burner on the bases and stole 18 bases last year and 36 in 2014. He received the bulk of his plate appearances from the leadoff spot for the Tigers last season, and it would make a lot of sense for the Indians to use him as their leadoff hitter against southpaws this year, too. In that scenario, Davis would once again have daily baseball value. If he hits down order, then his value would be diminished greatly.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Francisco Lindor was one of the highest ranked prospects in the game entering last season, but the vast majority of that was tied to his wizardry in the field. Sure, he could hit, but he could hit for a shortstop. He blew by expectations hitting 12 homers with 12 stolen bases, a .169 ISO, .358 wOBA and 128 wRC+ in 438 plate appearances. The switch-hitter was superb against lefties and righties (better against lefties, as the table illustrates). In the minors, he was slightly better against lefties than righties, too, but he was good against both. A carbon copy of last year's work is a projection that's too rich for my blood, but he should be an above average offensive option at the position who hits in a favorable lineup spot. That's a nifty combo for daily baseball purposes.

Jason Kipnis washed away the stink of his 2014 season. His 12 steals were a new low for him in a full season, but he hit for a bit of power (.149 ISO and nine homers). The lefty second baseman has been in the majors for a little over four years and established he's not worth using against lefties, but he's awesome against righties. He set new highs in 2015 against right-handed pitching with a .389 wOBA and 150 wRC+. He's one of the best options at the keystone when facing a righty.

Michael Brantley didn't duplicate his near-MVP caliber 2014 season last year, but he did mostly validate the power bump and continued to display a great approach. In fact, his approach was arguably better since he walked in a career high 10.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 8.6% of his plate appearances. His .170 ISO was just a smidge lower than his .178 ISO in 2014, and he continued to be a solid if not spectacular source of stolen bases with 15 in 16 attempts (the efficiency is perfect for FanDuel). The well-rounded offense of Brantley is perfect for cash games and GPPs alike. Since his breakout in 2014, he has a .143 ISO, .352 wOBA and 126 wRC+ against southpaws and a .193 ISO, .395 wOBA and 156 wRC+ against righties. As the numbers suggest, Brantley's better used against righties, but he's no longer out of play against lefties like he was earlier in his career.

It was a sad day in daily baseball when Carlos Santana moved out from behind the dish and lost catcher eligibility. It gets worse, now that he's a full-time first baseman/designated hitter, he doesn't carry third base eligibility either. The switch-hitter is an above average offensive player against lefties and righties, but he doesn't have the type of power gamers are usually looking for at first base. He helps offset his mediocre but not top-shelf power by hitting cleanup and racking up runs and RBIs, but his avenue to fantasy scoring puts pressure on his teammates to deliver and necessitates reserving Santana for usage when the Indians have a big over/under total.

Mike Napoli used to have some modest, GPP power-play upside against righties, but his erosion of skills against same-handed pitching counterparts resulted in him bottoming out with a .129 ISO, .271 wOBA and 63 wRC+ against them last year. He's now a player who should be viewed as an option only against lefties. His skills have remained intact against southpaws and his three-year numbers in the table are a fair representation of Napoli's skills against lefties. Even though first base is deep, Napoli should still get run against lefties in daily baseball lineups, but he'll likely continue to do so at a low-ish ownership rate.

Lonnie Chisenhall's days as a third baseman are gone, and losing the eligibility isn't a positive for daily baseball. That said, the move to the outfield might have been just what he needed to get it going with his bat. As an outfielder, he totaled 158 plate appearances and posted strong numbers including a 9.5% walk rate, .120 ISO, .342 wOBA and 118 wRC+. He wouldn't be the first highly touted prospect who settled in at the big league level after making the move from third base to the outfield *cough, Alex Gordon. Chisenhall's career platoon split, including his time in the minors, clearly favors the lefty facing right-handed pitchers. Don't use him against lefties, but losing third base eligibility won't necessarily knock him out of daily baseball usage consideration.

The eight and nine hitters for the Indians, Abraham Almonte and Giovanny Urshela are on the field for the defense, primarily. Almonte hasn't completely embarrassed himself with the stick against righties and could be considered as part of stacks, but there's not much to like about him as a stand-alone option. Urshela was awful offensively in the majors, and his minor league offensive numbers are yawn inducing. He's a hard pass in daily games.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Corey Kluber's win-loss record last year was nearly inverted from his Cy Young Award winning year in 2014, but we're in a day and age where fans, most of the media and daily gamers are smart enough to know win-loss record is bunk. Among qualified starters last year, Kluber ranked within the top 10 in strikeout rate, WHIP (1.05), xFIP (3.05), SIERA (2.98) and swinging strike rate (12.9%). The Klubot malfunctioned in a few starts, but by and large he was an ace. This late-bloomer should continue to pitch at an ace level this year.

Speaking of pitching at an ace level, Carlos Carrasco did so in 2015 and had even more impressive underlying stats and ERA estimators than Kluber. Carrasco ranked fourth in strikeout rate, 11th in WHIP (1.07), ninth in FIP, fourth in xFIP (2.66), fourth in SIERA (2.74) and fifth in swinging strike rate (14.3%). The second half of 2014 is when Carrasco broke out, and his encore was applaud worthy, but there might be even more upside lurking within Carrasco.

Trevor Bauer is a mixed bag and epitomizes what a GPP pitcher looks like. The volatile is great with the UCLA product. His control comes and goes and he walked 10.6% of the batters he faced. When he's pitching well, his strikeout rate allows him to work out of trouble and navigate around his free passes. When he's not, the walks result in short, ugly starts. Bauer just turned 25-years old and a meticulous worker, so it's possible his control will eventually improve, but make him prove it before bumping him up from GPP-only status to cash games consideration.

Raise your hand if you expected Josh Tomlin to twirl a 3.02 ERA in 10 stats last year. Now put your hand down, liars. The 31-year-old starter isn't a low-threes ERA pitcher, but it is worth re-evaluating what we thought we knew about the veteran pitcher. He posted a dental floss thin 3.2% walk rate with an above average strikeout rate of 22.7%. His ERA estimators were all over the map. Tomlin had a 4.43 FIP, 3.77 xFIP and 3.46 SIERA. Tomlin's .199 BABIP and 90.2% LOB% stand out as the flukiest/luckiest of his stats last year. He has a career .276 BABIP allowed and 67.7% LOB%. His BABIP should regress much closer to his career mark, but his LOB% isn't a lock to regress to under 70%. His strand rates have bounced all over the place, and it's possible he's improved as a pitcher with a baserunner or baserunners on. Avoid Tomlin early in the year if his salary is inflated to match his 2015 production, and wait until it depresses to a point it matches his true talent level.

Stock Watch

Up - Danny Salazar

Danny Salazar's ERA estimators in 2015 are right in line with his 2014 marks, but his ERA lined up with them last year. He was popular last year thanks to his strong underlying stats, but his stock is up even higher this year thanks to finally staying healthy enough to pile up innings (191 after including his six in one Triple-A start) and bumping his ground-ball rate up from 34.4% prior to 2015 to 43.9% last season. Among qualified starters in 2015, the righty ranked tied for 11th in strikeout rate. The punch outs give him a sky-high ceiling, and his ERA estimators all point toward a mid-threes ERA that makes him much more than a volatile GPP dart throw.

Down - Yan Gomes

The sliding pitch framing numbers highlighted above for Gomes shouldn't concern gamers, but his slipping walk rate and growing strikeout rate torpedoed his offensive output. Gomes slugged 21 homers and made his aggressive approach work in 2014, but he chased and swung more frequently in general in 2015. He's probably not as bad as he was last year, but a repeat of his 2014 offensive contributions feels far more unlikely than a repeat of last year's.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.