Colorado Rockies - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Rockies won just 68 games last year, and no matter who is on the roster, the story remains the same. The offense gets a lift from the home venue (more on that to come) and the pitchers get knocked around. They've finished under .500 in five straight years, but given the unique nature of the home park in Colorado, they'll always have daily baseball value. The hitters mostly make for poor selections on the road, but they're fantastic plays at home. Throughout this team preview, the home splits will frequently be referenced for hitters.

Park Factors

There isn't a better offensive venue in the majors than Coors Field in Colorado. The thin air in Colorado -- even after utilizing the humidor -- wreaks havoc on secondary pitches. Bookmark this Baseball Prospectus piece by Dan Rozenson, as it illustrates which pitches work best and worst at Coors Field. The impact Coors Field has on offense is best illustrated by the price bump daily baseball sites give to hitters when there is a game/series in Colorado. Stacking at Coors Field is always a popular strategy, and using pitchers there is rarely a wise move.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

* 2014 pitching statistics used.

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Nick Hundley - 60/72

Dustin Garneau - 72/72

As if pitchers on the Rockies don't have it bad enough throwing in Colorado, the backstop duo of Nick Hundley and Dustin Garneau won't make life any easier with their horrific pitch framing "skills." The struggles behind the dish of both Hundley and Garneau hurts the value of the pitchers on the staff who might merit consideration on the road. Rockies' hurlers are a tough sell as daily baseball options in any park, and the catchers don't help their cause for usage.

Spring Training Storyline

Who will start at first base?

Justin Morneau is out of town, and that leaves the competition for first base open for Ben Paulsen and Mark Reynolds. With Paulsen batting left-handed and Reynolds batting right-handed, a platoon is possible. Paulsen's stats in the projected lineup table don't tell the whole story. The gap between his work against lefties and righties is much larger in the minors. According to Minor League Central, he has just a .130 ISO and .626 OPS in 602 plate appearances against lefties in the minors since 2011 and a .218 ISO and .859 OPS in 1,608 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. Even if he plays against lefties, he's a poor choice for daily baseball rosters outside of stacks. Like many hitters, Paulsen is much better at Coors Field than on the road. Because wRC+ accounts for park factors, his 103 wRC+ at home and 100 wRC+ on the road in his career make his gap in production seem less stark than his gap in wOBA (.318 on the road and .371 at home). His plate discipline numbers are also vastly different away from Coors Field as he has a career 7.7% walk rate and 21.3% strikeout rate at home and a 3.8% walk rate and 33.0% strikeout rate on the road. Paulsen's essentially only usable in daily games at Coors Field against right-handed pitchers. He's a pretty damn good selection under those conditions, though, with a .207 ISO and .373 wOBA in 217 plate appearances against righties in Colorado.

Reynolds might feel like he's died and gone to heaven this season. The hulking power hitter has an ugly 31.6% strikeout rate in his career and struggles with breaking balls. His power has been lackluster the last three years with an ISO south of .200 in each of those campaigns, but he did hit 20+ homers in 2013 and 2014. Reynolds is also an extremely patient hitter with a 10.2% walk rate with the Cardinals last year and a 11.4% walk rate in his career. Since 2013, Reynolds has been a below average hitter against lefties (91 wRC+) and righties (93 wRC+). Reynolds is a non-option on the road this year, but throw his career numbers out the window when he plays in Colorado. We've seen big strikeout hitters greatly benefit from playing for the Rockies before. A perfect, recent example is Drew Stubbs' 2014 season. Stubbs owns a 30.3% strikeout rate for his career, but his strikeout rate was just 25.8% in 225 plate appearances at Coors Field in 2014. If Reynolds makes more contact, that will increase his chances of tapping into his massive power. File his name away as a potential GPP game-changer, even at the deep position of first base.

2016 Lineup Outlook

As promised above, home splits will be referenced in this section, and it starts with Charlie Blackmon. In 933 plate appearances at home in his career, he owns a 12.4% strikeout rate, .386 OBP, .167 ISO and .385 wOBA. The center fielder is an elite base stealer who ranked third in the majors in 2015 with 43 stolen bases. Blackmon's a beast against right-handed pitchers at home in his career (677 plate appearances, .394 OBP, .172 ISO and .392 wOBA). He's not a stud against lefties at home, but he's very much in play under those conditions with a .362 OBP, .155 ISO and .367 wOBA in 256 plate appearances against lefties in Colorado. Forget about using Blackmon on the road, though, even against right-handed pitchers.

Carlos Gonzalez got off to a slow start in the first half with a .194 ISO, .328 wOBA and 90 wRC+, and he exploded in the second half with a .354 ISO, .404 wOBA and 142 wRC+. He's terrible against lefties, but unlike most of his teammates, he's viable on the road. Last season, he tallied a .246 ISO, .348 wOBA and 103 wRC+ in 219 plate appearances against righties away from Colorado. He was awful against righties on the road in 2014 (39 wRC+), but he was awesome in 2013 (.262 ISO, .421 wOBA and 155 wRC+). He's downright terrifyingly good against righties at Coors Field with a .300 ISO or higher in five of seven seasons with the Rockies and no lower than a .416 wOBA against righties at home in a season with the Rockies organization.

Gerardo Parra enjoyed a career year split between the Brewers and Orioles. He set new highs in homers (14), ISO (.161), and wRC+ (108). Parra also stole 14 bases. Parra's awful against lefties, as the table indicates, but he's pretty darn good against righties. In 472 plate appearances againt right-handed pitchers last year, he hit 11 homers with a .170 ISO, .345 wOBA and 115 wRC+. If Parra thought he liked hitting at Miller Park and Orioles Park at Camden Yards, he'll love hitting at Coors Field.

DJ LeMahieu brings little power to the table, and even in a career year last season, his .327 wOBA isn't a head turner. Any member of the offense for the Rockies will have value at various times throughout the season, and that includes an unexciting hitter like LeMahieu. He did steal 23 bases in 26 attempts last season, so he's not completely devoid of upside.

Nick Hundley might be the poster child for what Coors Field can do for a hitter. Prior to playing for the Rockies last season, Hundley owned a .148 ISO, .297 wOBA, 88 wRC+ and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1,986 plate appearances. Last year, Hundley turned in a .167 ISO, .348 wOBA, 103 wRC+ and 19.5% strikeout rate in 389 plate appearances for Colorado. Hundley's season ended prematurely with a neck injury. The injury didn't require surgery and he'll once again be the starting catcher for the Rockies. I'm sure I sound like a broken record, but when at home, Hundley is a viable daily baseball option.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Jorge De La Rosa is a weird bird. He's historically pitched better at home than on the road. Last year was sort of an exception with him sporting a 4.59 FIP and 3.95 xFIP at home and a 3.89 FIP and 3.76 xFIP on the road. From 2013 through 2015, De La Rosa tallied a 9.6% walk rate, 17.5% strikeout rate, 4.34 FIP and 4.12 xFIP on the road and a 8.7% walk rate, 19.0% strikeout rate, 3.84 FIP and 3.78 xFIP. Backed by a strong offense when at Coors Field, De La Rosa is a usable GPP option when at home and facing a lineup that struggles with lefties.

Chad Bettis pitched well last year in his first full season as a starter in the majors. He was rocked at home (4.99 ERA, 3.90 FIP and 3.57 xFIP) and considerably better on the road (3.35 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 4.25 xFIP), but his walk and strikeout rates were both better at home than on the road (20.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in Colorado and 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate on the road). Bettis did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 49.3% ground-ball rate. He has a chance to be a cheap GPP contrarian pick, but he's not worth using out of the chute since there's a big disconnect between his peripheral numbers and his actual ERA at home and on the road.

Jordan Lyles isn't usable on daily baseball teams when he pitches in Colorado or away from the thin Rocky Mountain air. He is a player whose name you need to file away for future reference this year, though. He's a punching bag for left-handed batters. Last year, he allowed a .353 wOBA to the 114 lefties he faced. Since 2013, Lyles has served up a .351 wOBA to the 746 left-handed batters he's faced.

Tyler Chatwood didn't pitch in a single game for the Rockies last year as he recovered from Tommy John surgery he underwent in July 2014. He did make a pair of appearances in High-A ball, though. His strong ground-ball rate (52.4% for his career) plays well in his home park, and his 58.5% ground-ball rate in 20 starts for the Rockies in 2013 helped him tally a respectable 3.66 FIP and 4.00 xFIP that season. His lack of punch outs and poor control undermines his worm-burning ways. It's more likely he'll provide gamers a profit by using hitters against him (.353 wOBA allowed to lefties and .336 wOBA allowed to righties in his career) than by rostering him.

Jonathan Gray was popped with the third pick in the 2013 MLB Amateur Draft. The righty has an electric arm that fired 94.62 mph average fourseam fastballs last year, per Brooks Baseball. He backs the heat with a 85.33 mph changeup and 87.10 slider. His slider was a bat misser with a 23.62% whiff rate. Changeups don't play well at Coors Field, but sliders are a much better breaking ball than curveballs to throw in Colorado. That's not to say using a 24-year-old pitcher in his second season in the majors when pitching in Colorado is a wise move (it isn't, at least not initially). His 10.1% swinging strike rate was better than league average, and he's a high-upside young pitcher who'd be easy to get excited about if he pitched for any other team. Gray might have value on the road this year thanks to his high-octane arsenal, but as poorly as the bats of the Rockies travel, wins could be tough to come by.

Stock Watch

Up - Nolan Arenado

Welcome to the world of being an elite hitter, Nolan Arenado. The third baseman has 70 homers in his career and 42 were smacked last year. Arenado's .287 ISO ranked fourth among qualified hitters and his .371 wOBA was tied for the 17th highest. Oddly, Arenado's production against lefties took a nosedive (150 wRC+ in 2014 and 79 wRC+ in 2015). A low BABIP (.274) was damaging, and he should get back to crushing lefties. Obviously if he had a career year while seeing his production plummet against lefties, that means he annihilated right-handed pitching at a previously unseen degree. In 509 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Arenado hit 34 doubles, four triples, 37 homers with a .318 ISO, .388 wOBA and 131 wRC+. The young third baseman wasn't just a product of Coors Field, either. In 331 plate appearances on the road he hit 22 homers with a .281 ISO, .346 wOBA and 119 wRC+. Arenado is awesome and an elite play at home against either handedness of pitcher and a strong play against either handedness of pitcher on the road.

Down - Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes was arrested for domestic violence in the offseason and likely faces a suspension. Ken Rosenthal reported the decision on a suspension is likely to occur no later than March 1. The suspension alone would net Reyes the stock down arrow, but he's also coming off his worst offensive season in a decade as measured by his 80 wRC+. His seven homers were his lowest total since 2011, and his 24 stolen bases were good but fewer than he stole in 2014 (30). As has been the case for essentially every hitter who's ever played for the Rockies, he'll have some daily baseball value during games in Colorado, but Reyes' is on the back stretch of his career and playing a position that received a serious influx of young talent last year.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.