MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.
Top Pitchers
Michael Pineda (R), NY Yankees | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$9,800 | $8,900 | @ Orioles | 3.02 | 24 | 41 | 3.70 | -125 |
The last time Pineda faced this Baltimore lineup, he mowed them down 16 times, and he could hit double-digits once again. The Orioles rank second in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and Pineda has bounced back nicely after a couple down performances, tallying 17 fantasy points in two straight. He could achieve that total again tonight, boasting reasonable upside for a fraction of the cost from Kershaw.
Hector Santiago (L), Angels | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$7,400 | $7,200 | Athletics | 4.37 | 21.4% | 34% | 3.50 | -125 |
Santiago is your traditional boom or bust, risk/reward, and any other superlative that describes the risky proposition at hand. He's a fly-ball pitcher (50%) that sometimes runs into trouble. However, the A's don't really have many right-handed bats to give him fits, as he breezed past Oakland to the tune of six innings, eight strikeouts and 17 FanDuel points in their first meeting.
Top Hitters
Steven Souza (R), Rays | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,300 | $4,100 | Danks - LHP | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6 | 4.27 |
With this being his rookie season, Souza doesn't have a large enough sample size to calculate viable wOBA, ISO, wRC+ split stats. However, we do know that holding the platoon advantage over southpaw John Danks is a particularly favorable situation. Danks holds an inflated .359 wOBA against righties over the past three seasons, with a 42% fly-ball rate attached to it. The park factor in Tampa isn't all that inspiring, but when Souza gets a hold of one, it'll clear the fences in any major league stadium. He has multiple home run upside in this matchup.
Prince Fielder (L), Rangers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,700 | $4,700 | Milone - LHP | .352 | .176 | 141 | 3 | 4.78 |
After enjoying an unbelievable two-week stretch last month, Fielder's salary is back within attainable means. I'm expecting him to have a very low ownership percentage with this being a lefty/lefty matchup. However, as you can see above, Fielder doesn't have too bad of stats against southpaws, and Milone is just as kind to left-handed hitters (.325 wOBA, 50% fly-ball rate) as righties. This makes Fielder a sneaky GPP commodity to keep on your tournament radar.
Yoenis Cespedes (R), Tigers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,800 | $4,200 | Salazar - RHP | .327 | .189 | 115 | 4 | 4.01 |
Danny Salazar has been cruisin' as of late. In fact, the last time he faced the Tigers, he posted a line of seven innings, 11 strikeouts, with just one earned run. While he could have another solid outing tonight, his occasional proneness to home runs (1.48 HR/9) could just as easily catch up to him. If that's the case, Cespedes, who has belted two homers in the past three games, would be the primary beneficiary.
Josh Donaldson (R), Blue Jays | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$5,000 | $5,200 | Kelly - RHP | .348 | .170 | 114 | 2 | 4.24 |
The salary range is way out of consideration if you are paying up for pitching. However, if you are taking a stab at some of the cheaper pitching options, then I highly suggests looking towards Donaldson as a GPP play. He'll have a lower-than-deserved ownership percentage tonight, considering the price point and righty/righty matchup (most people only target him against lefties). Boston pitcher Joe Kelly actually has reverse-splits, and the wind is blowing out to left-field in Fenway Park.
Nelson Cruz (R), Mariners | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,600 | $4,700 | Oberholtzer - LHP | .426 | .274 | 113 | 4 | 4.07 |
Check the lineup before making this selection, as Cruz sat out yesterday's game. I'm willing to guess that he'll be back in the lineup tonight, enjoying a great righty/lefty draw against the mediocre likes of Brett Oberholtzer. Houston provides a hitter-friendly park to accompany Cruz's power hitting as well. The salary is way too cheap on FanDuel to pass up in all formats.
Value and Platoon Plays
Robinson Chirinos (C - TEX) FD: $2,600 DK: $3,700
As I mentioned earlier, Tommy Milone is a fly-ball pitcher (45-50%) who could get into some trouble in Texas. Insert Chirinos, who hits lefties at a .372 wOBA, .223 ISO clip over the past three seasons. Even though he'll likely bat seventh, I'm considering him the best punt of the position.
Logan Forsythe (2B - TB) FD: $2,700 DK: $3,200
As I mentioned earlier in the Steven Souza write-up, targeting righties against John Danks is a fantastic tournament strategy. Evan Longoria is the preferred cash game option of the Rays righties, but a stack including Souza and Forsythe could be sneakily potent.
Mark Trumbo (OF - SEA) FD: $2,900 DK: $3,800
I'm willing to guess that most people will overlook Mark Trumbo because he has done literally nothing over the past three series. Still, this is a great time for a bounce-back, sitting on a nice righty/lefty matchup already outlined in the Nelson Cruz write-up. If you are making multiple tournament teams, getting exposure to Trumbo is a calculated risk to take.
Wilmer Flores (SS - NYM) FD: $2,500 DK: $3,500
Flores has been the default punt shortstop for quite some time now. That especially holds true in a righty/lefty matchup against the sometimes erratic pitching of Alex Wood. Flores has the upside desired for a near-minimum middle infielder, already belting nine homers on the season.
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