MLB GPP Tournament Picks: 7-30-15

The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.

Top Pitcher

Arrieta has been flat-out rolling as of late, posting 18+ FanDuel point in three of the last five games. He holds career high marks with a 26.9% strikeout rate and a 51.5% groundball percentage to boot. Long story short, it's safe to say we're getting him at his best today. The Milwaukee offense, on the other hand, is reeling. They rank 20th in wOBA vs right-handed pitching (.304) and 10th in strikeout rate (20.4%). There are other quality pitchers within the same price range (Carlos Martinez may be better equipped for cash games), but Arrieta will assuredly have a lower ownership percentage with similar upside for tournaments.

Top Hitters

Martinez hasn't really done much in the power department after the All-Star break, maybe everyone forgot about his homerun upside? While that's probably not entirely true, J.D. will likely have lower ownership percentages due to the middling game log (over past 10 contests). He'll face one of the more generous homer-prone pitchers in a hitter-friendly park. That is none other than Miguel Gonzalez and his 1.66 HR/9 mark against right-handed bats over the past three seasons, which is one of the worst among qualified pitchers. This obviously puts Yoenis Cespedes in tournament consideration as well.

Davis could realistically make this column just about every day, considering his massive upside but inherent risk. Today's matchup against the persistent struggles of Alfredo Simon set up better than most. Simon has always held a susceptibility to left-handed hitters, and that has held true (and then some) this season while getting blasted for a .388 wOBA mark against lefties. Camden Yards is a ballpark that mildly accentuates left-handed power, putting Davis and the other Baltimore left-handed bats in a nice position.

Grichuk has been fantastic this season, improving upon the splits (against left-handed pitchers) shown above; now holding a .373 wOBA .250 ISO mark against southpaws on the season. He'll likely hit cleanup (or 3rd) against a left-handed tosser, and Colorado's Chris Rusin has one of the highest splits of the day in a .364 wOBA mark against right-handed hitters. Most people will be afraid to pay this price point for a less heralded/recognized player like Grichuk, but he stacks up just as well as the big names of this salary range.

There's a fair amount of risk/reward in this pick. Sure, Melky has been red-hot over the past several weeks, notching seven straight multi-hit performances, collecting at least one RBI in nine straight. He's talking on knuckleballer Steven Wright tonight, and you're never really sure how these matchups will work out. However, Wright can be categorized as a bad, generally ineffective knuckleballer, who is a fringe starter at best.

Value and Platoon Plays

Miguel Sano (3B - MIN) FD: $2700 DK: $4200

Josh Donaldson is the preffered option at third base, but he's pretty damn expensive, especially on FanDuel. That leaves him difficult to blend within a viable lineup, especially while paying up at starting pitcher. That leaves Sano as a healthy value selection on FanDuel, as I'll likely pass on the bloated DraftKings salary. Sano has bounced-back well following an ankle injury, holding a five game hitting streak. He'll have plenty of upside to complement that reasonable floor in a righty/lefty matchup against J.A. Happ.

Jhonny Peralta (SS - STL) FD: $2700 DK: $3800

Mr. Peralta is in play for the exact same reasons outlined earlier with teammate Randal Grichuk. In case you skimmed over that portion, or have a spotty short-term memory: Colorado left-hander Chris Rusin has one of the worst splits among pitchers in action tonight, holding a .364 wOBA mark against right-handed hitters. That cross-references extremely well with Peralta's .383 wOBA, .233 ISO splits. Even though Jhonny is in a bit of a slump, now is the time to bet on a bounce-back performance, considering the lower-than-usual price point as a bonus.

Torii Hunter (OF - MIN) FD: $3100 DK: $3800

Hunter got the day off yesterday, but he was beginning to heat up before that. He has been an extremely streaky hitter all season long, and it appears he could be in the midst of another power-surge. Hunter smaked two homers last series vs the Yankees, then he went 2-4 in his last contest vs Pittsburgh. He'll have an excellent righty/lefty matchup against J.A. Happ to inflict some damage with his confident bat.

Jung-ho Kang (3B/SS - PIT) FD: $3100 DK: $3700

This is more of a DraftKings recommendation, where Kang is cheap and eligible at 3B and SS. On FanDuel, he is only shortstop eligible, and it's very difficult to pass up on Troy Tulowitzki for a mere $3500. However, Kang has a relatively inexpensive salary on DraftKings, and he's set up in a fine situation against left-hander David Holmberg. I'm expecting Pittsburgh to be an extremely popular stack (McCutchen, Marte, Kang) against a bad pitcher in a hitter-friendly park.