MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.
Top Pitcher
Jose Fernandez (R), Marlins | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$9900 | $9800 | vs Reds | 2.62 | 28.9% | 46% | 3 | -140 |
Fernandez started slow in his first appearance of the season last week, giving up two earned runs in the first inning. Then, he settled into a nice groove, finishing with a quality line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K's against the Giants. It's also comforting that he was allowed 89 pitches in his debut, a number that should only increase as long as he keeps feeling good. We all know he has strikeout upside, and the Reds overall profile as an average offense. Marlins Park should help keep him out of trouble, and he checks in as a reasonable -140 favorite. Fernandez is the next best thing if you can't quite reach up for Felix, Price, or Greinke; holding a reasonable chance at replicating their totals.
Top Hitters
Kelly Johnson (L), Braves | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3500 | $3600 | Kendrick - R | .309 | .175 | 113 | 4 | 5 |
Johnson is dirt-cheap on DraftKings, where he can be considered a great pick in all formats (also 3B eligible). He's still a good pick on FanDuel at an inflated $3500, but the increased price point needs to be weighed with the other available players. Still, Johnson has been flexing some homerun upside, belting two homers in the past three games. He's getting it going at the right time, now enjoying an extreme park shift to Coors Field against the generous splits of Kyle Kendrick (.345 wOBA vs LHB).
Justin Bour (L), Marlins | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2800 | $3000 | Lorenzen - R | n/a | .n/a | n/a | 4 | 3.5 |
Bour was disappointing last night despite a great matchup/park factor. He'll see a significant park shift (for the worse) in Miami; however, he has proven himself as enough of a power hitter to launch one despite the dimensions. Michael Lorenzen has been extremely generous to left-handed bats this season, allowing a .417 wOBA mark. That could be enough to unleash Bour's upside once again.
Joc Pederson (L), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3300 | $3900 | Gonzalez - R | .382 | .267 | 146 | 1 | 4.5 |
Even though there's a Coors Field game tonight, let's not forget about the Dodger hitters. Actually, LAD checks in as the second highest scoring team of the day (behind Atlanta, tied with the Rockies). That means you'll want plenty of exposure, especially of the left-handed variety against Gonzalez of Philadelphia. Pederson has an agreeable price point on both sites, holding "boom or bust" power to inspire a high fantasy total.
Wilin Rosario (R), Rockies | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3300 | $3400 | Wood - L | .391 | .245 | 152 | 6? | 4.5 |
Rosario has been disappointing in his past few matchups against a left-handed pitcher. However, that doesn't mean we should dismiss him altogether. Don't forget this guy crushes southpaws to the tune of .391 wOBA, .245 ISO over the past three season, and the park boost in Colorado is second to none.
Value and Platoon Plays
Derek Dietrich (3B - MIA) FD: $2200 DK: $3200
Dietrich is actually second base eligible on DraftKings, providing some salary cap relief at an otherwise mediocre position. Meanwhile, on FanDuel, he's sitting at the bare minimum as a third baseman. If you aren't willing to spend on Arenado or Uribe tonight, punting the position is probably the best route. Deitrich has a fine matchup vs Michael Lorenzen as well, owning a .417 wOBA mark vs lefties this season.
Yan Gomes (C - CLE) FD: $2300 DK: $3300
Gomes is dirt-cheap and stepping in against a mediocre left-handed pitcher tonight (Brett Oberholtzer). Yan owns a reasonable .363 wOBA vs left-handed tossers, and he has a track record of power upside in the appropriate situations. Tonight certainly qualifies as such, and he's a great way to shed some cap space to reach up for pitching and/or top-dollar hitters.
Andre Ethier (OF - LAD) FD: $2400 DK: $3500
Ethier falls in line with the same rationale used in Joc Pederson's write up. A lot of people get discouraged by his spot in the order (usually 7th), but I'm expecting the Dodgers to fly up and down the order several times tonight, making that less of an issue. Ethier has some homerun upside for this near-minimum price point.
Drew Stubbs (OF - COL) FD: $3200 DK: $2900
Stubbs is a dirt-cheap filler on DraftKings, and more of a mid-range "contrarian" move on FanDuel. He profiles similarly to Ethier in a sense that he hits down in the order, yet holds power upside with the platoon advantage in favorable hitting circumstances (vs lefty in Coors Field).
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