Kansas City Royals - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

Only one team in the majors won more games in the regular season than the 95 won by the Royals, but no team was happier with the way the season ended than the 2015 World Series Champion Royals. Eight of nine starters from the 2015 lineup that ranked tied for ninth in wRC+ (99) and posted the lowest strikeout rate (15.9%) return this year. They dealt for Johnny Cueto to headline the rotation in the second half, but they didn't re-sign him. Their rotation has big question marks, but the pitching staff will be helped greatly by a team defense that's earned the highest defense grade on FanGraphs each of the last three years. The sum of the team is greater than its parts, but there are some solid daily baseball options on the roster.

Park Factors

Kauffman Stadium is a difficult park to hit the ball out of. Compared to a neutral park, lefties his 16% fewer homers there and righties hit homers 24% less frequently. Kauffman Stadium isn't a pitcher's park, though. It bumps run scoring for lefties by 4% and righties by 5%. It's also a great ballpark for hitters who pepper the gaps since lefties receive a 24% boost to doubles/triples and righties get a 10% bump. The Royals' offense is built perfectly for their park.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Salvador Perez - 49/72

Drew Butera - 56/72

Salvador Perez is one of the better catchers in the game, but not due to his below average pitch framing. His rank in 2015 was right in line with his ranks in 2013 and 2014, so there's little reason to expect him to do any better than this in 2016. Drew Butera, on the other hand, ranked 26th out of 79 catchers in pitch framing in 2014. He might frame a bit better this year, but he ranks somewhere between slightly above average and a little below average. The best news for the pitchers is that they're backed by an elite defense, because the catcher aren't going to them any favors.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will be the fourth and fifth starters?

The first three rotation spots are locked up, but three pitchers, Chris Young, Kris Medlen and Danny Duffy should be locked in stiff competition for the last two spots in the rotation. Young is a strange pitcher, and his ERA estimators are a poor way to peg his future performance. With a career LOB% of 75.6%, and a mark north of 80% each of the last two years, regressing his strand rate to the league norm is going to inflate his ERA estimators, and his track record suggests he shouldn't be regressed to the league average. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher (just a 26.4% ground-ball rate in his career), but his HR/FB rate is solid (7.7% last year and 8.1% for his career). Speaking of fly balls, Young's able to best his ERA estimators annually by a wide margin thanks in large part to an uncanny ability for coaxing pop outs. Last year, he totaled a 14.8% infield fly-ball rate, and his career mark is 15.2%. Young tallied a 3.18 ERA in 18 starts last year, and he should be good for a mid-to-high threes ERA this season. His low strikeout rate caps his ceiling, but he can get away with pitching to contact thanks to his unique batted ball profile and awesome defense behind him. I think Young is close to a lock to make the rotation.

The fifth starter spot is more of a coin toss. Both Duffy and Medlen have undergone Tommy John surgery (Medlen has twice), and each has worked as a starter and as a reliever as recently as last season. Duffy has a few things working in his favor. He's younger, has more electric stuff and is left-handed. The southpaw's control isn't as good and even with a higher-octane arsenal, he's not a big strikeout pitcher. He also has a sizable platoon split. Duffy has allowed a .337 wOBA to righties in his career and allowed a .343 wOBA to right-handed batters last year. He's death on lefties, and using him in the bullpen would allow the Royals to have more control over managing which right-handed batters he faces. If Duffy starts, he'll have value against lefty-laden lineups, but there will also be value in using right-handed batters against him.

As a starter last year, Medlen walked just 6.9% of the batters he faced while coaxing ground balls at a 51.0% rate. His 8.8% swinging strike rate fell short of the league average of 9.9% last year, according to FanGraphs, and the result was an unexciting strikeout rate of 13.8% in eight starts. Medlen missed the entire 2014 season recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, and staying healthy for for 88.2 innings was an accomplishment in itself. His velocity was at pre-surgery levels, though, it's not like he was a flame thrower at any point in his career. Medlen's changeup was the pitch that buttered his bread during his best years, and in 2013, it netted a 30.00% whiff rate, according to Brooks Baseball. Last year, however, it had just a 15.90% whiff rate. The changeup is the key to his success. He threw it a few ticks harder than before he underwent his second Tommy John procedure, but if he can find his feel for it this year, Medlen would make for an intriguing daily baseball option. Give him a few starts to see what the PITCHf/x data says about his changeup, and grade him from there.

Who will start in right field?

Right field was a black hole for the Royals last year. The team banked on a bounce-back season from Alex Rios and he "rewarded" them with a 72 wRC+. Whoops, that didn't work out. They opted not to pick up his option and that leaves right field up for grabs. Career minor leaguer Paulo Orlando played in 86 games and recorded 251 plate appearances for the Royals. He hacked, and hacked and hacked some more with just a 2.0% walk rate, but his .195 ISO was decent and his 89 wRC+ wasn't abysmal for a player who netted a positive defensive grade. As a 30-year old with mostly boring stats in his minor league career, he's not worth using on daily baseball rosters as a down-order hitter if he wins a starting job.

Jarrod Dyson, like Orlando, derived his value from his glove. The speedster has a track record of strong defensive grades. As a hitter, he posted a 88 wRC+, just one point below Orlando's mark. Unlike Orlando, Dyson has an intriguing tool on offense. He's an elite base stealer. Dyson stole 26 bases last year and he's stolen 25 or more bases in each of the last four years despite playing in no more than 120 games. The rest of his offensive profile is ugly, but his excellence as a base stealer (and at an efficient rate to boot) makes him semi-interesting as a punt.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Ned Yost and the Royals won a World Series last year, but that doesn't preclude him from constructing non-optimal batting orders. Alcides Escobar totaled 596 plate appearances hitting leadoff with a .296 OBP and 68 wRC+ hitting atop the order. He's more like a number-nine hitter than a lead-off hitter, but Yost doesn't seem to care. As long as Escobar hits first for the Royals, he'll have some daily baseball value thanks to his runs upside and ability to steal bases (17 stolen bases in 22 attempts last year, and 31 in 37 attempts in 2014). If Escobar rightfully is dropped near the bottom of the order, he'll have little to no daily baseball value.

Alex Gordon somewhat surprisingly re-signed with the Royals. He's coming off of his lowest home run output (13) since 2010, and his two stolen bases were a career low. You're probably thinking the following analysis is going to say to stay away, but he wasn't bad. For the third straight year, he was better against lefties than righties. Don't dismiss using him against righties, however, his ugly 2013 (.132 ISO, .297 wOBA and 84 wRC+) drag his since 2013 stats against right-handed pitchers down. Since the start of 2014, Gordon owns a .157 ISO, .346 wOBA and 120 wRC+. As long as Gordon is a run producing spot in the order (anywhere in the top-five lineup spots), he'll make for a solid option in daily games. If he's buried in the order -- as Yost has occasionally inexplicably done -- his lack of speed and modest power will make him a tough sell to roster.

Eric Hosmer isn't a traditional slugger at first base, but he's coming off of his best offensive season. The 26-year-old first baseman thrived against right-handed pitchers in 2015 with a .192 ISO, .378 wOBA and 141 wRC+. He has never hit 20 or more homers in a season, but he helps offset his lack of over-the-fence power by stealing bases more than the typical first baseman (seven last year). Finally, even though he's not a huge power threat, he has his fair share of run and RBI upside hitting in the heart of the order. Hosmer's a usable option at first base in all game types.

Mike Moustakas enjoyed a breakout season last year. He set career highs in homers (22), runs (73), RBI (82), ISO (.186), wOBA (.353) and wRC+ (124). Moose broke out thanks to changing his approach at the plate. He'd been pull-happy hitter in previous years owning a 46.3% pull rate prior to last year. Last season, he cut his pull rate down to 39.2% and went to the opposite field a career-high 27.4% of the time. His decision to use the whole field helped him immensely. Lefties used to tie him up, but last season, he hit 10 homers with a .204 ISO, .354 wOBA and 124 wRC+ in 231 plate appearances against them. Moose didn't have much luck against righties prior to last year either, but his new approach resulted in a dozen homers, .175 ISO, .353 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in 383 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. He's not a star, but he was an above average hitter and there were measurable and identifiable changes that explained his advancements as a hitter last season.

Salvador Perez's offense has improved against right-handed pitchers literally every year he's been in the majors. That resulted in him peaking at a .187 ISO, .328 wOBA and 106 wRC+ against them last year. That's the good news. The bad news is that his offensive production against southpaws has fallen apart completely. Perez failed to walk even one time in 175 plate appearances against lefties, and he bottomed out with a .241 wOBA and 46 wRC+. Forget about using Perez against lefties, but consider him against mediocre to bad righties.

Omar Infante hasn't posted a wRC+ above 100 since 2009. He's a down-order hitter who hasn't reached double-digit steals since 102, and he's hit eight homers in the last two years combined. Nothing to see here, move along to someone else at the keystone position.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Edinson Volquez re-invented himself under the tutelage of Pirates' pitching coach Ray Searage in 2014, and many chastised the Royals for signing him. The expectation was that Volquez would revert back to the wild pre-2014 version of himself, but he actually improved his control and tallied a career-best 8.5% walk rate. That mark was worse than league average but acceptable. Volquez isn't the big strikeout pitcher he was during his days with the Reds, but he struck out batters at a non-terrible rate. All in all he was a slightly better than average pitcher, and pitching backed by the best defense in baseball likely helps explain why his 3.55 ERA was better than his ERA estimators. Another mid-to-high threes ERA is well within reach of Volquez.

Yordano Ventura's ERA went the wrong way in his sophomore season, but his ERA estimators all improved. What gives? A .307 BABIP did him no favors. The diminutive righty kicked his ground-ball rate up to a brilliant 52.2%. Pair that with his above average strikeout rate, and sprinkle in his only slightly worse than average walk rate and the seeds are there for him to pitch to his ERA estimators (3.60 xFIP and 3.69 SIERA last year). The righty is one of the hardest throwers in the game and ranked fourth in average fourseam fastball velocity and second in average sinker velocity last year among starters who threw a minimum of 200 of each pitch, according to Baseball Prospectus. He's the highest ceiling pitcher in Kansas City's rotation.

Ian Kennedy isn't consistent year to year. Last season, homers were a huge problem for the righty. He allowed 1.66 HR/9 with a 17.2% HR/FB rate ... pitching his home games at homer-suppressing Petco Park. Because FIP doesn't normalize his home-run rate, it paints the least favorable picture of his work in 2015. His 3.70 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA are a better representation of Kennedy's work last year if he hadn't struggled with the long ball. Kennedy owns a 1.12 HR/9 and 10.7% HR/FB rate for his career, and that makes his homer struggles last year look like an outlier. He's struck out over 24% of batters he's faced the last two years and moves from a team that ranked next to last in defense to the top team defense, per FanGraphs. Even if his strikeout rate dips a bit moving from the National League to the American League, Kennedy will receive a huge pick-me-up from his new defense. I expect Kennedy to post better numbers this year than last, and that makes him a great candidate for usage early in the season since his salary will be reflective of last year's less impressive work.

Stock Watch

Up - Lorenzo Cain

Lorenzo Cain is a toolsy late bloomer. He matched his career high in stolen bases with 28 last year, but it was his power outburst that was shocking. In over 1,200 plate appearances with the Royals from 2011 through 2014, Cain hit just 16 homers. He matched that total in 604 plate appearances last year. The outfielder used the middle of the field a bit more and pulled a few more balls, but more importantly, his hard hit ball rate surged from 25.6% in his career prior to last year to 31.9% in 2015. It remains to be seen if he'll be able to retain all of his hard hit ball gains. The right-handed hitting outfielder good against righties last year and death on lefties. In 202 plate appearances against southpaws, he managed 28 extra base hits (seven homers), a .232 ISO, .405 wOBA and 159 wRC+. Fire him up against lefties with regularity and don't be shy about occasionally using him against righties, too.

Up - Kendrys Morales

The 2014 season was a lost one for Kendrys Morales. He signed late as teams didn't wish to forfeit a draft pick for the right to sign him as a player who rejected a qualifying offer. The switch-hitter was unable to get into the swing of things. Last year, though, he rewarded the Royals' faith in him. He ripped off his highest ISO since 2010 and best wOBA and wRC+ since 2009. Morales was decent against lefties last year (.113 ISO, .333 wOBA and 110 wRC+) and awesome against righties (.254 ISO, .385 wOBA and 146 wRC+). The gap is more extreme than his career marks, but Morales is much better against righties than lefties and hits for considerably more power right-handed pitchers in his career. Unless you're using him as a contrarian pick against a lefty, Morales is best utilized against righties and is in play in all game types.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.