Minnesota Twins - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Twins surprised in year one under manager Paul Molitor, and they finished above .500 with 83 wins. They have a mostly young roster. The offense has some talent and upside, but not many "sure things." The rotation isn't exciting at first glance, but a pair of hurlers look pretty good after digging under the hood.

Park Factors

Do you like white bread? Are plain potato chips your thing? Are you the person who loves the old fashion donuts in the mixed packs? You get the point. Target Field is the ballpark for you. It is basically a neutral ballpark in every park factor. The most "extreme" park factor is a 12% boost to infield fly balls for righties. Beyond that, the park features a 6% bump to outfield hits and fly balls for righties. Again, nothing exciting.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Kurt Suzuki - 37/72

JR Murphy - 36/72

Last year's pitch framing rank for Kurt Suzuki marked a sizable upgrade from each of the last two years. He's clearly a below average pitch framer. In 2014, JR Murphy ranked 29th out of 79 catchers in per game pitch framing value, so his rank last year looks legitimate. That would make him average-ish. Murphy is the preferred catcher you'll want to see penciled into the lineup card if you're considering using a Twins pitcher, but he's not an elite framer.

Spring Training Storylines

How will Byung Ho Park handle the transition to MLB?

Last season, rookie Jung Ho Kang hit 15 homers with a .173 ISO, .356 wOBA and 130 wRC+ in 467 plate appearances for the Pirates. He didn't light the world on fire as a reserve whose playing time was infrequent early in the year and posted an 82 wRC+ in April. His production surged in May, plummeted in June, and then he took off in a full-time role after the All-Star break. Kang creamed 40 homers with 68 walks, 106 strikeouts and a .356/.459/.739 triple-slash line in 501 plate appearances in his final season in the KBO. This is a very long-winded way of saying Kang terrorized pitchers in the KBO and made a successful transition to MLB, albeit not without some hiccups early on.

Every player transitions to new leagues and new countries differently, but Kang's transition provides hope Byung Ho Park can carry his offensive excellence over fromt he KBO. He might serve as the designated hitter for the Twins, but his position in the field is first base. He's been arguably as dominant a hitter as Kang was before leaving the KBO and has done so for a longer period of time. Park's belted 105 homers over the last two years combined (52 in 2013 and 53 in 2014). The offensive environment in the KBO is extremely hitter friendly, ala the Pacific Coast League at the Triple-A level here. It's hard not to be impressed by his .343/.436/.714 triple-slash line last year. His 78 walks in 622 plate appearances is a strong total, but his 161 strikeouts do provide some reason for pause.

Park's power is very real. The swing and miss in his game will probably take a bite out of his batting average, but if his plate discipline translates, his walks will prevent him from being an OBP black hole. Out of the gate, he's a GPP play based on his home-run thump. He could quickly become more than that. One more thing to file away in the memory bank, Kang struggled in Spring Training last year, so don't immediately dismiss Park if he has a sluggish spring. Finally, if you like bat flips, check this out. Park's bat-flip game is on point.

Who will win the fifth starter job?

Ricky Nolasco's fat contract with the Twins hasn't proven to be a good investment for the club, and there's no guarantee he'll even win a spot in the rotation. He'll have to beat out Tommy Milone, and perhaps a non-roster invite or two for a gig. Milone was the better pitcher of the two last, but his 4.30 FIP, 4.22 xFIP and 4.39 SIERA are nothing special. The lefty doesn't strike many batters out, and he allowed a .331 wOBA to the 411 right-handed batters he faced. For his career, he's allowed a .323 wOBA to righties. His best contribution to daily baseball if serving as a pitcher who gamers can run some right-handed bats out against.

Nolasco, on the other hand, pitched well enough to be a viable daily baseball starting pitcher option as recently as 2013. That year, he recorded a 3.70 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 19.8% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate. Nolasco has long been the poster child for not producing an ERA in line with better looking ERA estimators. Last year was a textbook example of the Nolasco Experience. In nine appearances (eight starts) he managed an enticing 3.51 FIP and palatable 4.01 xFIP, but his ERA was an unsightly 6.75. His velo last year compared favorably with his good 2013 season, and his 9.3% swinging strike rate wasn't that far off from the league average of 9.9%, per FanGraphs. There's hope he could get back to his level of pitching from that year, but if he begins the year in the rotation for the Twins, I'll be filling my daily lineups with hitters from his opposition. Nolasco's allowed a .341 wOBA to lefties in his career (.318 last year) and .314 wOBA to righties in his career (.407 last year).

2016 Lineup Outlook

Molitor has already indicated Byron Buxton could receive further seasoning at the Triple-A level to begin the year. Of Buxton's 138 plate appearances in the majors last year, 81 came batting ninth, so even if he breaks camp with the team, he could start the year hitting ninth. Buxton's one of the best prospects, if not the best prospect, in the game, and Molitor was willing to challenge him last year hitting him leadoff for 54 plate appearances. Players don't come much toolsier than Buxton, and he's tailor made to leadoff when he proves ready to handle big league pitching. I'd hazard a guess he'll win the starting center field job and start the year in the majors, but even if he doesn't, we'll see him this year in the majors again. His upside is through the roof even if his big league numbers don't provide much reason for optimism. Buxton stole 20 bases and banged out six homers in 268 plate appearances at the Double-A level last year. His speed is the most translatable skill for now, and the volatility he'll present as a young player makes him a GPP for now, but the talent is great enough that he could turn into a reliable cash game play this season.

The power continues to grow for Brian Dozier as he set a new career high in homers (28) and ISO (.209) last season. His fly-ball rate has gone up every year in the majors, and hit its high mark of 44.1% last season. For his career, as the table shows, Dozier's been appreciably better against lefties than righties, but that wasn't the case last year. Dozier's ISO was nearly against lefties and righties and there was just a four point gap in wRC+ (106 wRC+ versus lefties and 102 wRC+ against righties). He remains a better play against lefties than righties, and his track record makes him one of the best options at the keystone position when facing one. That said, his fly-ball heavy approach that allows him to tap into his pop and his improvement against righties puts him in play against right-handed pitchers as well. As a bonus, Dozier is a capable base stealer and swiped 12 bags in 16 chances last year after nabbing 21 in 28 attempts in 2014.

I'll keep the analysis short and ... well, not sweet with Joe Mauer. He has great plate discipline, but his power is putrid (.115 ISO and 10 homers last year) for a first baseman or designated hitter and he hasn't hit over .300 since 2013, so the multi-hit games are fewer and farther between than throughout the bulk of his career. Even with a cushy lineup spot, Mauer's done a poor job of tallying run and RBI numbers. There won't be many times this year that Mauer stands out as even a palatable option at first base.

Former first-round pick Trevor Plouffe didn't develop into a superstar or anything, but it probably be inaccurate to call him a bust since he's carved out a nifty niche role at the hot corner for the Twins. He's been an above average offensive player in three of the last four years and hit more than 20 homers in two of those seasons. His walk rate is basically league average and his batting average has hovered around the league average give or take five to 10 points. He's essentially a league average offensive player overall, but his platoon split greatly favors using him against left-handed pitching. Plouffe isn't the type of player gamers fall all over themselves to roster, even against a lefty, but he's a fairly productive player who isn't exceptionally costly and can provide a positive value at his salary regularly.

Eddie Rosario is a free swinger. He walked in a miniscule 3.2% of his plate appearances in his rookie year. He doesn't offset it with lots of contact, either, as he struck out in 24.9% of his plate appearances. That's not the profile of a player who belongs on cash game rosters, but his .192 ISO and 11 steals provide some GPP appeal. He showcased a reverse platoon split last year, but digging into the numbers a bit, I don't believe that will continue to be the case moving forward. His minor league track record (.155 ISO and .758 OPS versus lefties and .210 ISO and .852 OPS against righties in the minors since 2011, per Minor League Central) also suggests he'll trend toward a traditional platoon split with more plate appearances in the majors. The reverse platoon split could create some low ownership opportunities when he faces righties early in the year.

Kurt Suzuki is penciled into the projected lineup as the starting catcher, but he'll likely split time behind the dish with JR Murphy. Neither hitter does much damage with the lumber. Outside of oddball wrap around stacks, gamers shouldn't be turning to Suzuki or Murphy as their catcher for their daily baseball teams.

Eduardo Nunez isn't good with the glove and shouldn't be an everyday shortstop, but he's a decent-ish hitter relative to his peers at the position. Last year marked a career year offensively for the former Yankee. He set a new best with a .149 ISO, .328 wOBA and 107 wRC+. He's a bit more enticing option than the catching duo alternating starts in front of him, but not a lot more.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Ervin Santana was suspended for the first 50 games of last year due to a failed drug test for PEDs. When he was active, he was unable to match his production from the previous two seasons. His 21.9% strikeout rate in 2014 looks like an outlier as his 17.9% strikeout rate last year is within one percentage point of his strikeout of every season from 2009 through 2013. The rest of his numbers look eerily similar to the league average, and it's probably fair to peg Santana as just a league average pitcher. In the right ballparks, with the right moneyline and facing the right lineup, league average is usable. Santana uses a changeup (13.64% of the time last year, per Brooks Baseball), but he remains primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, and that leaves him susceptible to being punished by lefties. For his career, he's allowed a .337 wOBA to lefties, and last year, he served up a .346 wOBA to them.

Kyle Gibson didn't a much better job stranding baserunners than he had in his first season and a half in the majors, and his strikeout rate improved for the second year in a row. He continued to induce ground balls at one of the league's highest rates (53.4%) for a starter and walked batters at basically the league average rate. Tie it all together and he was a pinch above average in 2015. There might be a bit more upside for him to tap into. According to Brooks Baseball, his cahngeup had a whiff rate of 18.51% and his slider's whiff rate was 20.86%. The changeup also featured a 62.93% ground-ball rate on balls in play. He has the goods to get lefties and righties out, and with his strikeouts creeping in the right direction, there may be more punchouts and accompanying success to come. At the worst, Gibson is a playable starter when the Twins face a league average or worse offense.

Tyler Duffey reached the majors without much fanfare last year, but he proved he more than belongs. In addition to his strong FIP and strikeout rate in the table above, he also brought a 49.7% ground-ball rate and only slightly worse than league average 8.3% walk rate to the table. His 9.8% swinging strike rate was nearly identical to the league average (9.9%, per FanGraphs), but with a 21.74% whiff rate on his changeup and 18.06% whiff rate on his curve, he has a pair of put-away offerings that should allow him to continue to beat the league average in strikeout rate even if his swinging strike rate doesn't. Duffey opens the year as the best pitcher in the Twins' rotation, and he might even be slightly undervalued within the daily baseball community.

Stock Watch

Up - Miguel Sano

Even after only 335 plate appearances in the majors, it's not too soon to say it might only takes one hand to count the number of hitters on the planet with the type of power Miguel Sano has. He ranked 21st in average home run and fly ball distance, according to Baseball Heat Maps. Among hitters with at least 100 at-bats last year, he ranked second in average fly ball and line drive exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. Sano is the strong man at a freak show and can tear the cover off of the ball. He smacked 18 homers with a .262 ISO in 335 plate appearances last year, and even with a ton of swing and miss in his game (35.5% strikeout rate), he's more than a one-trick pony. Sano also demonstrated plate discipline that belies his youth (15.8% walk rate). Sano started nine games at third base and should open up with eligibility there in daily games, but the expectation is that he'll play the outfield this season. Sano's a budding superstar and having third base eligibility early in the year is just a bonus.

Down - Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes flourished in his first year with the Twins in 2014 (3.52 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 3.18 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA), but he struggled last year. His swinging strike rate took a freefall from 8.9% in 2014 to 5.5% last season, and probably not coincidentally his velocity was way down (almost two mph on his fourseam fastball and sinker) last year. If Hughes pitched enough innings to be a qualified pitcher last year, he would have led the league in walk rate for the second year in a row. Unfortunately, throwing strikes doesn't mean as much when his stuff is diminished and hitters can knock it around. Hughes is unusable unless he can recapture the ticks missing off the radar gun.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.