MLB Cash Game Picks : 6-21-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher

The Phillies just aren't very good this season. Sorry Philadelphia fans, but I don't think I'm saying anything you don't already know. They rank dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.272), which gives Wacha an added layer of security. You would expect decent run support against a spot-starter pitcher as well, hence the monstrous -225 moneyline (despite being on the road). Needless to say, Wacha is an extremely safe play that shouldn't let you down. That especially holds true on FanDuel, where the win is weighed heavily.

Jake Arrieta enters a little more risk into the equation, but his upside is very present in a matchup like this. The Twins rank 24th in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.295), but they are a streaky offense fully capable of inflicting damage at any given time. Granted, Arrieta is a solid pitcher that should keep them under wraps, but just beware of Minnesota's offensive capabilities, especially at home. However, the Twins rank 9th in strikeout rate (20.5%) and they have come back down to Earth following a fantastic run through the month of May.

Catcher

Lucroy, against a lefty in Coors Field is an absolute no-brainer. That especially holds true on FanDuel, where his price point isn't prohibitive at all. Lucroy hasn't really done much in the first two games of this series, but that doesn't mean he's "fade material" in such a salivating matchup like this one. Chris Rusin owns a .365 wOBA against right-handed hitters, the highest split of any pitcher in action today.

First Base

This pick mostly pertains to FanDuel, where Ortiz's price point is still much cheaper than deserved. His production has seemingly normalized, and the matchup against a fly-ball pitcher like Chris Young is definitely one to target. Young allows a .337 wOBA with a 56% fly-ball rate for Ortiz to easily exploit. The only drawback comes from a downgrade in park factor at Kansas City. Still, expect Ortiz to jump on a few pitches up in the zone, going for extra-base hits if not a round-tripper.

Second Base

Cincinnati pitcher Michael Lorenzen doesn't have a strong enough sample size to derive any meaningful splits. However, we can say that he has somewhat of a susceptibility against left-handed hitters, which falls into conventional wisdom. Gordon has an extremely favorable price on FanDuel, which is where the "cash game lock" narrative resonates the most. You may want to weigh your options on DraftKings, as DJ LeMahieu seems like a steady pick for $3700.

Third Base

Aramis received the day off yesterday (rest/maintenance), so I'm expecting him to be ready to roll this afternoon. He has a terrific righty-lefty matchup against Chris Rusin (and his aformentioned generous splits). As you can see in the chart above, A-Ram's numbers against southpaws are fantastic, even though he is struggling overall this season, noticeably on the decline of his career. He may not play like it today, as this is an excellent spot for Aramis to pay dividends.

Shortstop

When comparing Escobar's splits vs handedness, we see a moderate rise (.290 wOBA vs .279) against left-handed pitching. If we combine that with his mini hotstreak plus very plausible multi-hit and stolen base probability, the makings of a fine value play emerge. As usual, the opportunity cost at shortstop is extremely low, so anytime you can snag a cheapie with meaningful upside, you need to at least consider it. Boston pitcher Wade Miley has been struggling as of late (14 earned runs over past four starts), and the Kansas City offense is potent enough to help Alcides cash in once he reaches base.

Outfield

I'm not really sure how much analysis is needed in this pick. Braun is expensive, there's no denying that. However, this is exactly the matchup you want to target him. It really doesn't get any better than this. He's a known lefty masher, as you can see in the .372 wOBA .225 ISO splits above. Cross-referencing that against Rusin's worst-of-the-day .365 wOBA split against righties, and Braun emerges as the top overall hitter (not factoring price).

It's usually tough to choose between Blackmon and teammate Carlos Gonzalez for a similar price point. For cash games, it's Blackmon, as he has a higher floor with less dependency on the deep ball. He still has homerun potential, combined with multiple hit and stolen base ability to bolster that aforementioned fantasy floor. Opposing pitcher Matt Garza has calmed down after a horrific start to the season, but he's still prone to a blowup outing, displaying in his last start: 6 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR vs Kansas City. Coors Field won't help his aspirations of a bounce-back effort.

I absolutely love Colabello's salary on DraftKings. He's still in play on FanDuel, but weigh your options accordingly. Colabello has been remarkably consistent this season, holding significant RBI potential every day while batting 5th (or 6th) for one of the better offenses in baseball. That especially holds true today, taking on Chris Tillman in Toronto's hitter friendly atmosphere. Tillman is a reverse-splits hurler, more generous (with a 1.33 HR/9) to right-handed sluggers.