MLB Cash Game Picks : 5-18-15

By: Josh Shepardson, Updated May 18, 2015

MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead, you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points, respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.

Pitcher

Matt Harvey, R, Mets
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opponent	FIP	K%	GB%	Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML
$10,600	$10,600	Cardinals	2.90	25.8	43.2	3 and -137

Corey Kluber, R, Indians
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opponent	FIP	K%	GB%	Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML
$9,800	$10,100	@ White Sox	2.57	29.2	47.4	3.5 and +107

Matt Harvey isn't saddled with facing another ace, like the other top pitching options are. That's not intended to be a slight toward John Lackey, but he's no Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. That's reflected in Harvey being the second biggest betting favorite of the night. Harvey backs his likelihood of getting a win with explosive stuff that's resulted in the 15th highest strikeout rate among qualified starters this year. His control has been strong (3.9% walk rate), too, which is always a concern with guys coming back from Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals are a very good offense ranking eighth in wRC+ (104) against righties this year, making for a tough matchup for Harvey, but the low betting total in the table above is reflective of what oddsmakers expect.

Sale is a strong play, but I'm taking the Corey Kluber side of this exciting showdown between aces. Kluber is coming off throwing eight scoreless, one hit and 18 strikeouts showing against the Cardinals last week. An ugly ERA has masked some strong underlying numbers for the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner. Kluber ranks in the top five in strikeout rate, K-BB% (24.2%) and cracks the top 10 in FIP. The White Sox present him a middle of the pack offense ranking 13th in wRC+ (97) against righties this year. Kluber is an underdog, but there's a decent chance Kluber and Sale both throw up zeros and the game is decided by the bullpens or serving up one mistake that results in a homer at homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. If the latter happens to be the case, I like Kluber's odds of avoiding a homer more than Sale due to him posting a higher groundball rate.

Catcher

Wilin Rosario, R, Rockies
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$3,500	$3,300	Cole Hamels, LHP	0.427	0.311	158	4,5,6?	4

Stephen Vogt, L, Athletics
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,900	$4,100	Lance McCullers, RHP	0.341	0.175	121	5	4

I fully expect Wilin Rosario to be in the lineup against southpaw Cole Hamels tonight. That's great news because as you can see in the table above, Rosario annihilates lefties. Not shown in the table above is his excellence against lefties at Coors Field specifically. Since reaching the majors in 2011, Rosario has 218 plate appearances at home against southpaws and has ripped 20 homers with a .383 ISO, .470 wOBA and 186 wRC+. Those numbers are almost unbelievable, but I assure you, they're real .. and they're glorious.

Stephen Vogt's since 2012 numbers are dragged down by a slow start in the bigs. His numbers are much more impressive when you look at just what he's done since breaking out as a nearly full-time player for the A's last year. As a member of the A's, Vogt has 350 plate appearances against righties and totaled a .201 ISO, .376 wOBA and 146 wRC+. He's facing a pitcher, Lance McCullers, who is making his big league debut tonight. McCullers is a high upside pitcher, but I don't expect him to make a seamless transition. McCullers has below average control that's resulted in walk rates north of 10% every year from 2012-2014. This year, he's stepped things up, but still owns a 9.5% walk rate. If his control escapes him, expect Vogt to have ducks on the pond and ample RBI opportunities.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt, R, Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$5,400	$5,300	Dan Haren, RHP	0.378	0.220	137	3	3.5

Lucas Duda, L, Mets
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,000	$3,900	John Lackey, RHP	0.364	0.220	136	3	3.5

Paul Goldschmidt is the unquestioned top play at first base tonight, but he's incredibly difficult to budget with the top pitchers. If you happen to believe in one of the cheaper arms, Goldy is the best play. He's excellent against righties and Dan Haren has a reverse platoon split since 2012. Haren has held lefties in check with a .308 wOBA allowed during that time frame, but he's been punished by righties allowing a .338 wOBA to them.

Lucas Duda is the cheap alternative to Goldy. He's actually been near his offensive equal against righties since 2012. Obviously, Duda isn't as talented a hitter and we're comparing Duda's favorable platoon split against Goldschmidt's weaker split. Having said that, he's much cheaper and gets a chance to exploit John Lackey's modest struggles with lefties. Since 2012, Lackey has allowed a .320 wOBA to lefties with a gaudy 1.30 HR/9 allowed. Duda has the type of top shelf power to pile onto that HR/9 rate.

Second Base

Jose Altuve, R, Astros
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$4,600	$4,800	Drew Pomeranz, LHP	0.387	0.139	149	1	4

Dee Gordon, L, Marlins
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,900	$4,900	Rubby De La Rossa, RHP	0.315	0.088	101	1	4

Jose Altuve is the top cash games pick at second base but a far better play on DraftKings than on FanDuel when factoring in prices. The Astros leadof hitter is facing a southpaw, and we know Altuve tears lefties up. He also tears up the bases having stolen 13 bases in 17 chances this year and 56 last year in 65 chances. Lefty Drew Pomeranz adds to the appeal of using Altuve. Pomeranz has allowed a .346 wOBA to right-handed batters since 2012.

Dee Gordon should be the go-to option at the hot corner for cash gamers on FanDuel. He offers a steep discount from Altuve, and he's a nice arbitrage minus some pop. Gordon has stepped up his contact game this year and that coupled with a high BABIP has resulted in a .420 average. His BABIP will regress from its unsustainable .467 mark, but he owns a career .343 BABIP so don't expect him to crash to league average. I love Rubby De La Rosa in GPPs tonight and think he has the goods to make strides against lefties, but until he does, De La Rosa's .374 wOBA allowed to lefties since 2012 is eye caching for those looking to use Gordon.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado, R, Rockies
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$4,000	$4,200	Cole Hamels, LHP	0.382	0.224	128	3,4?	4

Nolan Arenado joins Rosario as a great right-handed bat who hammers lefties getting the tout for cash games tonight. Also like Rosario, Arenado has been at his best when facing a southpaw at Coors Field. Arenado reached the majors in 2013 and has totaled 161 plate appearances against southpaws at Coors Field since then. In those plate appearances he ripped the cover off the ball totaling a .357 ISO, .463 wOBA and 183 wRC+. Add in right-handed batter park factors at Coors Field of 113 for singles, 115 for doubles/triples, 121 for homers and 133 for runs, according to StatCorner, and you've got an elite option.

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki, R, Rockies
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$4,500	$4,100	Cole Hamels, LHP	0.421	0.256	154	2,3?	4

It seems fitting that Troy Tulowitzki gets the tout after I gushed about the right-handed park factors at Coors Field. He'll enjoy those, too. Make it three Rockies hitters who terrorize lefties at home, and he's been doing it for much longer than Rosario and Arenado. Tulo has nearly a decade of excellence against lefties at Coors Field. Since breaking in during the 2006 season, Tulowitzki has 609 plate appearances at Coors Field against lefties with a .250 ISO, .443 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Throw out his injury shortened 2012, and Tulo has a wRC+ north of 140 in every season from 2007 through this year.

Outfield

Ryan Braun, R, Brewers
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$4,000	$4,900	Kyle Lobstein, LHP	0.421	0.294	167	3	3.5

Carlos Gomez, R, Brewers
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$4,000	$5,000	Kyle Lobstein, LHP	0.361	0.236	127	1	3.5

Ryan Braun isn't vintage Braun these days, but the "Hebrew Hammer" has lived up to his nickname when facing lefties. Throw out Devon Travis' 32 qualified plate appearances against lefties this year. After doing that, he ranks second among all qualified hitters in ISO, fifth in wOBA and eighth in wRC+ against lefties since 2012. Kyle Lobstein has a below average fastball that sits int he mid- to upper-80s and gets by in the majors by mixing in secondary pitches and keeping hitters off balance. That's a tight rope to walk against a hitter like Braun.

Carlos Gomez was hit by a 97 mph in the head yesterday, but he didn't suffer a concussion and could be in the lineup tonight. If he is, he's a strong cash games play. His stats table above tells part of the story illustrating that he's an above average hitter who packs punch. He also has blazing speed. Gomez has stolen 114 bases since 2012 and has a minimum of 34 stolen bases each year from 2012-2014. Spinning back to Lobstein -- who I already pointed out has fringy stuff -- he isn't very good against righties. Since reaching the majors last year, Lobstein has allowed a .331 wOBA to right-handed batters.

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