MLB Cash Game Picks : 5-19-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher

James Shields' FIP is misleading as homers have killed him. After normalizing his homer rate, his xFIP (3.00) ranks tied with Matt Harvey for the 12th best in the league. He ranks third in strikeout rate, sixth in K-BB% (23.7%) and he ranks tied for third in swinging strike rate (13.8%), according to FanGraphs. The Cubs are tied with a few others for the lowest betting total of the night, but few teams offers more strikeout upside to the opposing pitcher than they do. The Cubs rank tied for 18th in wRC+ (91) and have the second highest strikeout rate (25.4%) against right-handed pitchers this year. Shields has a very high floor and ceiling and makes for a perfect cash games target.

Anibal Sanchez is another pitcher whose ERA is misleading. His 4.76 ERA is more than a run higher than his FIP and nearly a full run higher than his 3.83 xFIP. His left-on-base percentage is really killing him, but it's almost 10% lower than his career rate. He'll straighten it out. The righty has kicked up his strikeout rate nearly two percent from last year and it has coincided with a jump from a 9.3% swinging strike rate last year to 9.9% this year. He's pounding the strike zone and will be a handful for a bad Brewers offense. The Brewers rank tied for 26th in wRC+ (79) and have the fifth highest strikeout rate (22.2%) against righties this season. Sanchez checks in as the biggest betting favorite by a wide margin tonight. That certainly helps his cause for being a cash game pick since the "W" is oh so important.

Catcher

Russell Martin has been a well above average hitter against lefties since 2012, as his numbers indicate, and two of those years were spent playing home games in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. He's going nuts this year playing for the Blue Jays. He's already ripped seven homers while stealing two bases. His thump and offense will get a boost playing at home tonight. The Rogers Centre has right-handed batter park factors of 119 for doubles/triples, 118 for homers and 102 for runs. Martin makes for the best play at catcher tonight and is the most expensive option on DraftKings but just the third most expensive catcher on FanDuel.

Stephen Vogt is a nice alternative if for whatever reason Martin gets the night off, you're looking to diversify lineups, or you just don't have the extra $500 to afford Martin on DraftKings. Vogt's numbers above are dragged down by his 2012 numbers with the Rays. Since joining the A's in 2013, is ISO jumps to .183, his wOBA rises to .354 and his wRC+ checks in at a hearty 130. Since the start of last year, those numbers soar to a lofty .199 ISO, .373 wOBA and 144 wRC+. The late-blooming catcher is thriving since getting regular playing time with the A's last year and has a soft matchup with Roberto Hernandez. Hernandez has allowed a .357 wOBA to lefties since 2012.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion makes it a pair of Blue Jays getting the tout as cash game picks -- so far. He's easier to budget for on FanDuel than DraftKings. The cleanup hitter has been one of the premier power hitters against lefties. Since 2012 (and after eliminating Devon Travis' qualified 32 plate appearances this year, something I'll do going forward), he ranks seventh in ISO against lefties among qualified hitters. As I noted in Martin's write-up, the ballpark factors are very favorable for hitters at the Rogers Centre. He's had a down year, but his plate discipline is fine and his strikeout rate isn't alarming by any means. I fully expect his bat to come around.

David Ortiz is under priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He's been excellent against righties, even at his advanced age in baseball years. The Red Sox are tied for the highest team betting total, which elevates Ortiz's floor, and the game is at Fenway Park where he'll hit with a park factor of 153 for doubles/triples. A matchup with Yovani Gallardo isn't too shabby, either. Gallardo has allowed a .318 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012.

Second Base

Pitching is relatively cheap today, but Neil Walker still represents a bargain and salary relief without sacrificing talent. The switch-hitter ranks second among qualified second basemen (eliminating Matt Carpenter since he's no longer second base eligible) in wRC+ and ISO against righties since 2012. The number-two hitter for the Pirates has a cake matchup with Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has allowed a .349 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson checks in as the third Blue Jay who is a great cash games play. He is a beast against lefties ranking first in ISO, tied for sixth in wOBA and fourth in wRC+ among qualified hitters against them since 2012. It should come as little shock that multiple players from the Blue Jays get the nod in today's cash games piece. They rank as the best offense in baseball against lefties with a staggering 145 wRC+ and .385 wOBA. Finally, all right-handed Blue Jays hitters will get a lift from facing Hector Santiago and his .328 wOBA allowed to righties since 2012.

Shortstop

I wouldn't fault gamers for using either Troy Tulowitzki at Coors Field against righty Aaron Harang or Marcus Semien against righty Roberto Hernandez at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, but I think both are slightly over priced given the variables in play. My preference is to pay down for Jhonny Peralta against southpaw Jon Niese. As Peralta's numbers in the table above indicate, he's a well above average hitter against southpaws with thump, and he has a great lineup spot hitting cleanup. Niese isn't dreadful against righties, but he's allowed a .318 wOBA to right-handed batters since 2012. This is a case where none of the numbers jump off the page, but collectively, they are all worth more than Peralta is priced for at both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Outfield

I don't want to hear any whining. Yes, Bryce Harper is very expensive. I've provided plenty of bargain picks to allow for Harper's sizable price tag. That's not to say Harper should be on all cash game rosters, but he's without question the top outfield play. Harper has already hit more homers, 14, this year than last, 13. One monstrous improvement to his offensive game that feels as if it's being overlooked is his huge jump in walk rate. He entered this year with a career walk rate of 10.4%, and this year, he has a 21.2% walk rate. That kind of patience has helped fuel a .476 OBP, which obviously gives him a very high floor. His 180 wRC+ against lefties is also noteworthy since it means a lefty reliever facing Harper shouldn't alarm his daily game owners. Now, let's get to the real juicy stuff. Harper has 125 plate appearances against righties this year and ripped four doubles, one triple and 13 homers. He's totaled an absurd .450 ISO and 230 wRC+ against righties this year. The righty he's facing, Nathan Eovaldi, has no answer for left-handed batters. Eovaldi has allowed a .343 wOBA to lefties since 2012.

A game at Coors Field and no touts in the cash games article? Not so fast. Rockies leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon is a great target. He's fairly affordable, for starters. As a left-handed batter he'll enjoy park factors of 107 for singles, 116 for doubles/triples, 118 for homers and 130 runs. Also, as a left-handed batter, he'll get the platoon advantage against Harang. Harang has allowed a .329 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012. Get some shares of Blackmon on your cash games rosters.