MLB Cash Game Picks : 6-29-15

Pitcher

Lance McCullers is the most talented pitcher on the bump tonight. He leads the way in strikeout rate among starters getting the ball and he sports the best FIP while also tallying a strong 3.35 xFIP. He's not without warts today, though, facing the least strikeout prone offense against righties in the Royals. They also happen to be a top-10 offense in wRC+ (104). He's also stuck pitching in his hitter-friendly home ballpark. Thankfully, McCullers does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, which will help in avoiding the homer inflating nature of Minute Maid Park. Furthermore, Lorenzo Cain is less than 100% and is listed as day to day. If he's out, that's one talented hitter removed from the heart of the order, and if he's in the lineup, he's probably playing at less than full strength. McCullers is a betting favorite tonight and his ability to miss bats helps elevate his floor, even against an offense that puts the ball in play frequently. McCullers' warts are much easier to overlook than those of the other probable starters, and that makes him the top cash games pick at pitcher.

Jimmy Nelson is one of the bigger betting favorites tonight and he has the softest matchup. The Phillies rank last in wOBA (.279) and wRC+ (74) against right-handed pitchers, but they don't strike out much (18.9%). Nelson is exploitable by left-handed batters (.360 wOBA allowed to them in his career), but the left-handed batters in the Phillies are mostly non-imposing, save for Ryan Howard. Nelson spun an eight inning gem in his last start against another soft NL East lineup. He has a few meltdowns on his resume this year, making him a bit risky, but with him serving as one of the bigger betting favorites and oddsmakers tossing a low team over/under total on the Phillies, the odds of him adding another tonight seem slim.

Catcher

The Dodgers are one of four teams leading the way in over/under total at 4.5 runs, and that elevates the floor of all hitters on the Dodgers including Yasmani Grandal. The switch-hitting catcher is having a full-blown breakout in year one with the Dodgers, and he's much better against righties than lefties. The right-handed pitcher he's facing, Allen Webster, has struggled in a big way with left-handed batters in his time in the majors. Webster has allowed a staggering .375 wOBA to lefties in his time in the majors. Hitter-friendly Chase Field makes for a great place for offense, further bolstering the case for using Grandal at catcher.

First Base

Adrian Gonzalez narrowly edges out hitters such as Prince Fielder, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols for the top honors at first base in cash games. He's an easy choice at first base on FanDuel, where his price is laughably low. On DraftKings, things are tighter with the aforementioned alternatives, and Pujols is a cheaper alternative if you can't quite pony up for Gonzalez. The Dodgers' first baseman is a well above average hitter against righties who, like Grandal, will benefit greatly from Webster's struggles with lefties. Revisiting the hitter-friendly nature of Chase Field, left-handed batters are treated to park factors of 116 for doubles/triples and homers and 117 for runs scored.

Second Base

Like Gonzalez, Ben Zobrist is a stronger play at FanDuel thanks to a better price there, but he's my favorite option at the keystone position on either site. Gamers looking for a cheaper alternative can turn to Rougned Odor, but with pitching as cheap as it is tonight, budgeting for Zobrist should take very little effort. The former Ray hits in a great lineup spot for an A's team that makes life difficult on right-handed pitchers (106 wRC+ which ranks sixth). The righty he's facing, David Hale, has a sizable platoon split and has coughed up a .352 wOBA to lefties in his career and an even uglier .398 wOBA to them this year. Zobrist's ability to switch-hit adds to his value as well since he'll be fine facing a left-handed reliever should the Rockies turn to one later in the game.

Third Base

Todd Frazier is one of the worthwhile big ticket items to splurge. Since 2012, Mike Pelfrey has exhibited a reverse platoon split allowing a .326 wOBA to lefties and a .357 wOBA to righties. Pelfrey's 3.06 ERA stands in stark contrast to his 4.06 FIP and 4.41 xFIP and he's riding a low hard hit ball percentage to success while rarely avoiding bats (11.5%). That's a dicey recipe for success. Frazier does an excellent job of making loud contact, and in 810 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers at Great American Ballpark, he has a .252 ISO, .377 wOBA and 139 wRC+. His value is further bolstered by a right-handed batter park factor of 122 for homers.

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Correa are fine alternatives to Jose Reyes, but the switch-hitting former Met and Marlin is cheaper than both and leads off for an explosive Blue Jays' offense that ranks fourth in wRC+ (108) against righties. Clay Buchholz has pitched better of late, but he does have some messy turns to his credit this year, and the Blue Jays are capable of putting runs up in a hurry. Reyes hits righties better than lefties, and while his numbers in the month of June are underwhelming, they are largely BABIP (.267) driven and not reflective of a bigger problem. In fact, his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down this month from his work in April and May. In addition to being an above average hitter against righties, Reyes is a very good base stealer and has 10 in 11 chances this year. That could come into play with Blake Swihart struggling a bit to control the running game (23 stolen bases allowed in 39 games, 36 starts).

Outfield

Mike Trout is a stud, and while I could leave his analysis at just that, I won't. Tonight is a night where gamers will have extra money to spend thanks to cheap pitching options, and Trout is easily one of the best investments. Trout does damage against pitchers of either handedness, and lefty CC Sabathia has been lost against righties over the last couple of years. Since 2013, Sabathia has faced 1,171 right-handed batters and they've totaled an eye-popping .371 wOBA against him. Picking on Sabathia with one of the best right-handed batters in the game is a no-brainer.

Shin-Soo Choo's season totals are ugly, but they are also greatly hampered by his struggles with left-handed pitchers. This year, he has totaled a .194 ISO, .360 wOBA and 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Those are all strong marks. As a left-handed batter, he'll hit with park factors of 127 for homers and 120 for runs at Camden Yards. He'll also enjoy hitting left-handed against Bud Norris since Norris has ceded a .362 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012.

Michael Brantley isn't playing at as high of a level this year as he did last, but he's still been very good (.138 ISO, .343 wOBA and 123 wRC+ against righties). He's nestled into a nice lineup spot, and he has one of the highest floors among hitters thanks to his uncanny ability to put the ball in play. Brantley owns the third lowest strikeout rate (7.7%) among qualified hitters, per FanGraphs. While his power is down a bit, Brantley remains an incredibly efficient base stealer with eight in nine chances. Opposing pitcher Nate Karns has been fine this year, but he's also given up a .322 wOBA to left-handed batters in his career, making Brantley a nice play at his price on both DraftKings and FanDuel.