MLB Cash Game Picks: 7-11-15

Pitcher

Unfortunately, the night slate does not have the luxury of including Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel, or Matt Harvey. We are dealing with a few tier two pitchers, and my favorite is A.J. Burnett. Pitching in Pittsburgh has done wonders for him in the back end of his career. To this point, he owns a 1.99 ERA and has only allowed more than two runs three times in 17 starts. The Cardinals offense has been slumping with just a 70 wRC+ in the last two weeks, and their strikeout rate is 22.9% in that span as well. He is a slight favorite and gets one of the best pitcher's parks to back him up.

Choosing an SP2 is going to be hit and miss tonight. While Ryan Vogelsong and even Eduardo Rodriguez make appealing cases, they are still a little risky. There is even some risk with Jordan Zimmermann, but he has a track record better than the other two. After a rough April, Zimmermann has a 2.39 ERA with a 2.97 FIP. He is not a strikeout pitcher, but has dialed up six-plus in three of the last four starts, and Baltimore strikes out quite a bit against right-handed pitching. They own a 22.7% strikeout rate and are an offense that falls stagnant quite a bit for being in the top half of the league in offense. Even though he is a underdog, I believe he has a better chance of landing a win than most of these pitchers.

Catcher

I really hope the Giants saved some offense for tonight. They had 15 runs on 22 hits, and chased Cole Hamels very early. The Phillies are trucking out David Buchanan, who is what we like to call a gas can. Buchanan has allowed a .370 wOBA to right-handed bats over 347 total batters faced. There is not much between Buster Posey and the punt catchers, other than Jonathan Lucroy. Posey owns a .386 wOBA off right-handed pitching this year, and he has the best matchup of anyone behind the plate.

First Base

Hisashi Iwakuma is a good pitcher, but he's yet to gather himself this season. Allowing nine home runs in four starts is a tough thing to do, especially when three of those starts came in Safeco. Right-handed bats have a 43% hard hit ball rate off him this season and five homers. Albert Pujols has looked like "The Machine" again, with a .397 wOBA off right-handed pitching and a .303 ISO. This offense is clicking, and these top of the order guys are all in play.

I am a big fan of Yonder Alonso tonight, and not only because of his matchup, I will get to the reason later in the article. Colby Lewis has allowed a .335 wOBA to lefties this season, and a .358 wOBA in his career. Alonso does not have a high ceiling, but has a low strikeout rate, and a good OBP against right-handed pitching. The matchup with Lewis in Texas does give him more upside than usual, though. For almost a bare minimum play on FanDuel, you have yourself a lefty facing Lewis in the top of the order. Not bad.

Second Base

Neil Walker has figured things out of late, hitting .405 with three homers this month. He has a .347 wOBA off right-handed pitching with a 37.1% hard hit ball rate. John Lackey has a 4.72 FIP against left-handed bats this year, and lefties have just an 11.3% strikeout rate off him. I love the power out of the second base spot here, especially on FanDuel where he is only $3,200.

More of a DraftKings value play here, as Joe Panik finds himself with a solid matchup. Panik has a .368 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season and has yet to slow down. He has a 24% line drive rate off righties, and is really a crucial part of this all-around Giants offense. Buchanan owns a 4.27 FIP against lefties, despite holding them to a .289 wOBA in his short career. Not an overpowering matchup, and Vegas expects more runs from the Giants, and so do I.

Third Base

I am not in love with the top options at third base tonight, and would rather go value at the hot corner. Ivan Nova has allowed a .326 wOBA to lefties in his career, and you can call him an average right-hander. In a small sample size of 2015, he has a 2.65 ERA, but a 4.78 FIP in those three starts. I expect things to even out as he hasn't been pitching efficiently since coming back. Pablo Sandoval has a .356 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season, and he's enjoyed Fenway with a .353 wOBA. This compares to his .273 wOBA on the road.

Shortstop

No Carlos Correa or Troy Tulowitzki tonight, so as you might imagine shortstop is a little weak. Xander Bogaerts is looking like one of the better options though, hitting over .400 this month. His only downside is the lack of power, but I will look at other positions for power. Bogaerts hit .230 off right-handed pitching and is hitting 65 points higher this season. He had a 26% strikeout rate off righties in 2014 and brought that down to 16% in 2015. He has made big strides, which has led to him hitting third in this lineup, which is unreal given the names around him. Nova has allowed a career .343 wOBA to right-handed bats.

Outfield

Another double-dong game for Mike Trout last night, and his price sits under $5,000 on DraftKings tonight. Trout is en fuego, and maybe just getting some warmups for the home run derby. With Iwakuma struggling and giving up the long ball like Santa gives gifts on Christmas, Trout is most certainly in play again. He has a .414 wOBA against right-handed pitching and a 44.3% hard hit ball rate. He is on another planet in terms of skill.

Nelson Cruz is starting to pick back up again, as he cooled off for some time. We all know his lefty-mashing qualities, but I will tell you anyway. Cruz owns a .531 wOBA off lefties this season with a .435 ISO. Wilson has kept righties at bay this year, but they do have a 23% line drive rate with a 35% hard hit ball rate. His ground-ball rate is down from his career norm, and he can be home run prone at times. Although anyone can be home run prone against Cruz. He has a stellar price tag on FanDuel for all to take advantage of.

I am rounding out my outfield with Andrew McCutchen, and he will be the offense tonight to get Burnett that win we need. Cutch has been his MVP like self, and he looks completely healthy after early struggles in the season. He has a .388 wOBA off right-handed pitching with a 40% hard hit ball rate. He is always a threat to steal and has a safe floor and high ceiling that we like paying for.

So where is the value outfielder? Kole Calhoun for $3,900 on DraftKings is solid value, while Hunter Pence is $3,000 on FanDuel. The reason I like Alonso so much is that his salary allows an outfield of studs, especially pairing him with Sandoval. If you go the cheaper route on pitching tonight, which is definitely an option, these guys all become easier to fit into lineups.