MLB Cash Game Picks: 7-3-15

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw is the top pitching option of the night, and he gets a juicy matchup against the Mets. New York has a 23.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, and have a league average wRC+. He is a monster favorite as usual, and the Mets' 2.5 run total is the lowest of any team tonight. He has the second highest strikeout rate in the league, just behind Chris Sale of course. Scrolling through his game logs, the win has been crucial to him coming close to his price tag worth on FanDuel. He is winless in his last four starts, which has led to some average scores, compared to Kershaw standards. I am not worried about it tonight, and I expect a monster outing from the reigning Cy Young winner.

Kershaw is going to be my one and only cash game pitcher on FanDuel, the search for an SP2 on DraftKings has led me to Jesse Chavez. He is a slight favorite and gets the bump pitching at home, where he has a 2.16 ERA. He has a 3.02 FIP as a starter this season, with a decent strikeout rate for a guy this cheap. His last five starts have not been up to cash game standards, but I chalk that up to him facing tough offenses. He also had a monster outing against San Diego and a quality start against the Angels. Seattle actually ranks below San Diego in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and they have a 22.6% strikeout rate. His price tag, matchup, and Vegas odds are all above average for a safe cash game play.

Catcher

This is the first of my trio of Royals, as their price tags come in fairly low for a quality matchup. The Royals are a low strikeout team, and these guys rarely have nights leading to negative scoring. Salvador Perez has had decent success against lefties since 2012, and will get a nice matchup against Tommy Milone. He has allowed a .350 wOBA to right-handed bats this season, and has allowed seven runs in two starts against Kansas City this year. Perez is at a punt play's price on FanDuel, while you may want to aim cheaper on DraftKings. Josh Phegley has the lefty matchup, and he only costs $3,100.

First Base

This game has one of the biggest totals on the night, and I am looking for the Sox to carry their explosion over from last night. David Ortiz has three homers in the last five games, and he's turned it around in June with a .349 wOBA. He has a 40% hard hit ball rate off right-handed pitching to go with a .387 wOBA. While Fenway takes the sting out of his home run swing, his price tag and matchup fits well with a Kershaw lineup. He has just a 12.7% strikeout rate against righties, and Dan Straily has allowed a career .337 wOBA to left-handed bats.

Adam Lind may be the most stable bat for this Milwaukee team. He has really heated up, hitting almost .400 in the last 10 games, which has unfortunately sent his price tag up. He gets a great matchup in one of the best hitting parks in baseball. Over the last three seasons, Great American Ballpark has had a 151 park factor for left-handed home runs. Lind is crushing right-handed pitching with a .390 wOBA, and a 42% hard hit ball rate. Michael Lorenzen has been roughed up by lefties so far in the majors, allowing a .410 wOBA, and a 31% line drive rate. There is some weather concern in this game, but it looks to be just a delay at the most.

Second Base

This will be a repeat pick from last night, as Kolten Wong has an average price tag for a safe floor and high ceiling. I was counting on a stolen base last night, which he came through with off Tyson Ross. Wong has a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching, with a .201 ISO, which is one of the best among second basemen. Andrew Cashner has been awful against lefties, allowing a .391 wOBA this season with a 37.2% hard hit ball rate. He could run into some trouble with this Cardinals lineup.

Third Base

One of the safer expensive picks on the night belongs to Manny Machado. John Danks is allowing a .398 wOBA to right-handed bats with a 36% ground-ball rate. He has a 1.78 HR/9 against right-handed bats and can serve up the long ball multiple times a game. Machado has never been a notable lefty splits guy, but in 2015 he has a .385 wOBA. Over the last three seasons, U.S. Cellular has had a 114 park factor for right-handed homers, which is a slight boost from Camden Yards.

Creating a balanced cash game lineup tonight will require a guy like Pablo Sandoval. He has been crushing right-handed pitching this season, with a .373 wOBA. Having a horrible season from the right side of the plate has dropped his average. He is a low strikeout threat, with just a 10% rate against righties, while he has severe home/away splits. He has a .383 wOBA at home and a .273 wOBA on the road. He will get a solid matchup against Straily and is at a value price.

Shortstop

Alcides Escobar provides the perfect cheap shortstop option on FanDuel tonight, while he is priced higher due to the matchup on DraftKings. Royals have a high run total, and Escobar provides a ton of worth in the leadoff spot. Escobar is yet another low strikeout threat who has a 28% line drive rate off left-handed pitching this season. Xander Bogaerts is another honorable mention.

Outfield

This maybe my favorite play of the night, just due to Lorenzo Cain's high ceiling. He has 14 stolen bases on the season, and is always a threat for a monster game. He has a .405 wOBA off lefties this season, with a 28% line drive rate. Kaufmann Stadium can take away from the home run game, but it creates extra base hits and runs from the right side. Hitting third is an enticing spot for Cain while he continues his all-star season.

BvP people may want to look away for this one. Adam Jones is 1-for-30 against Danks in his career. He will have more than one hit against him in his career come the end of the night. Jones crushes left-handed pitching, and he gets a big boost with Danks on the hill. Jones has everything in his favor, and I expect him to be in the middle of hitting the over on the team run total. He has a .429 wOBA against lefties this season with a 27% line drive rate.

Bats against Kyle Kendrick, as Bart Simpson writes on the blackboard over and over. Kendrick is one of the worst pitchers in the game, but we love him for still having a job. While many of the Arizona bats are priced high, or are suited for GPP's, David Peralta is my cash game play in the desert. Kendrick has allowed a .392 wOBA to left-handed bats, and Peralta is the best lefty Arizona has to offer. He has a .355 wOBA against right-handed pitching, with a .202 ISO.