MLB Cash Game Picks : 7-31-15

Pitcher

Yes, Clayton Kershaw is the top option this evening, but he also has a price tag in the stratosphere. There are several other aces on the mound tonight, and one is Madison Bumgarner. He has an excellent matchup tonight. The Rangers struggle tremendously against left-handed pitching (.299 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 23% strikeout rate). The strikeout rate is one I really enjoy when putting MadBum in my lineups. I don't worry too much about a low ground-ball rate from Bumgarner, he still possesses a league average fly-ball rate, and a nice strikeout rate with a high infield fly rate. The Giants are a nice favorite tonight, and Bumgarner carries a lot of upside, as well as a safe floor.

The Brewers are cleaning house. Carlos Gomez dealt yesterday, and Gerardo Parra today. I liked this matchup for Jason Hammel even with those guys in the lineup, but now I like him even more. Hammel has the seventh best swinging strike rate among tonight's probable starters (10.1%), and he is ahead of some bigger names in that department, like Johnny Cueto, Michael Wacha and Gio Gonzalez. After cruising through the season, Hammel has hit a rough patch in July, but no reason to keep him on your "never again" list that he may have landed on last start against the Phillies. He is a nice cheap option for an SP2, and a small favorite.

Catcher

Buck Farmer... Where do I even begin with how bad he is. He has allowed four homers, 22 hits, and 14 runs in 13.1 innings pitched this season. He has an ERA over four down in the minors this season, and the Tigers are just rotating crap pitchers with him and Shane Greene. Matt Wieters is the first of my Orioles' trio. He had the day off yesterday, so no worries about him being out of the lineup. Wieters has a .324 wOBA against right-handed pitching since coming off the DL, with a .172 ISO. A 25% line drive rate and a 35% hard hit ball rate are signs of hitting the ball well too. Camden Yards is one of the top places to hit in the game, and I love this Baltimore offense tonight.

First Base

With all the aces on the hill tonight, I will stay in a remotely cheap price range. Brandon Belt has the matchup and a price tag to fit in with all the top tier arms. Nick Martinez has allowed a career .331 wOBA to left-handed bats, with a ground-ball rate in the 30's. Per StatCorner, Rangers Ballpark has held a 108 park factor for left-handed runs in the last three seasons. Belt has a .375 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and his ISO jumps from .145 at home to .237 on the road.

Second Base

Kyle Kendrick is not just bad in Coors, he is bad everywhere. He struggles greatly with lefties, allowing a .418 wOBA this year. Fire up Kolten Wong and company. Wong has a .358 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season, with a 26% line drive rate. Kendrick has the third lowest swinging strike rate among starters tonight, and everything is hit hard off this guy. Jason Heyward, Jhonny Peralta, and Matt Carpenter are also in play tonight.

Third Base

Manny Machado is a guy to pay up for tonight. He has a .380 wOBA off right-handed pitching, with a .228 ISO. Machado has always hit right-handed pitching well, and even better than lefties. Baltimore has a giant run total tonight, and the top of the order should easily get in on the action. If you are looking to go just a little bit cheaper at the hot corner, Matt Duffy and Carpenter are other honorable mentions.

Shortstop

Shortstop options are fairly limited at the top of the list, so this will not be a position I pay for today. J.J. Hardy is in a really nice spot. He's been hitting the ball well of late, hitting .298 since the break with a couple of homers, Hardy brings some solid upside for a cheap price. Of course the matchup helps too. If you have some extra cash at your disposal, Peralta and Jung-Ho Kang are fine options.

Outfield

It is really hard to pass up on Nelson Cruz when he is facing a lefty. Unfortunately he is not at the value price he was just a week or two ago, but hitting .305 with five homers since the break will do that. He has a .478 wOBA off lefties, with a massive .318 ISO. His 42% hard hit ball rate is up near the top of list among lefty mashers, and Milone is not a tough guy to face. He is allowing a .368 wOBA to right-handed bats, with a 1.93 HR/9.

Preston Tucker packs a ton of upside at a very reasonable price tag. Rubby De La Rosa is abysmal against left-handed bats, allowing a .399 wOBA this season, with a 2.53 HR/9. Yikes! This screams long ball in Houston this evening, and Minute Maid Park has had a held a 129 park factor for left-handed homers in the last three seasons. Tucker has thrived against right-handed pitching in 2015, showing massive power. He should display some more tonight.

The Pirates had a let down last night, but no reason to shy away again. They have a run total of five, so give me the leadoff man, Gregory Polanco. He has a .349 wOBA since the break, and he's done a pretty decent job of getting on base in that span too. Michael Lorenzen has been torched by lefties, allowing a .454 wOBA, and a 32.3% line drive rate. Polanco should easily jump right on this matchup.