MLB Cash Game Picks : 7-4-15

Pitcher

It is an ugly pitching slate tonight, even with Zack Greinke and Matt Harvey on the mound. Much like we saw last night, the Dodgers have a heavy money line, but a Greinke win is not for certain. I have much more faith in the Dodgers offense getting runs off Harvey than I do the Mets off Greinke. He has been electric this season, with the best ERA in the league. He has not allowed a run in his last three starts, and has only had one real blowup, but that was in Coors. While his strikeout rate doesn't excite me for the price tag, the Mets have the eighth highest strikeout in the league against right-handed pitching. Even if a win is not a lock, Greinke remains the top option on the slate.

This spot was originally schedule for Alex Wood, but weather is looking scary down in Atlanta for tonight's game. He is the next best option on this slate, but if it is a washout, we are forced to find another SP2. Patrick Corbin is also in play due to the lack of pitching, but the first start in the majors after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery is always a risky one. Do I feel good about playing Hector Santiago? Not really, but he is a heck of a lot better than the other guys going this evening. Everything points to Santiago regressing, I am just hoping that it is not tonight. He has allowed two earned runs between two starts against Texas this season, while they rank 26th in wRC+ versus lefties. They also carry a 23.8% strikeout rate, which tacks onto the Santiago play tonight.

Catcher

I am not sure if it is because it is the 4th Of July, but this game will be a popular trend in today's picks. The red, white, and blue uniforms - being played in Great American Ballpark, it just makes sense. Oh, and also two bad right-handed pitchers are on the hill. Jonathan Lucroy has 11 hits in the last four games, and he looks dialed into his usual ways. Lucroy has a 26% line drive rate against right-handed pitching this season, and he is really starting to heat up. Josh Smith has only pitched eight innings in the majors, walking 10, and allowing five earned.

First Base

Jimmy Nelson is allowing a .391 wOBA to left-handed bats this season, and Joey Votto comes right to my mind as a top play today. He has a .388 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season with a 39% hard hit ball rate. Great American Ballpark has had a 151 park factor for lefty homers in the last three seasons, which gives Votto that friendly ballpark bump. This game has a nice 8.5 total, which is among the top three in tonight's slate.

If you have some extra cash, which you might, Anthony Rizzo also makes a fine play. He has the third lowest strikeout rate among first basemen, and the third highest OBP. He is inserting his name next to Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera in a lot of these categories. Rizzo has a .406 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year with a .284 ISO. Jarred Cosart is nothing more than your average right-handed pitcher.

Second Base

If you are paying up for second base, it will likely be in GPP situations only, while Scooter Gennett remains at a low price tag. After a horrid start, and a trip to the minors, Gennett has started to come around. He was a cash game staple for a lot of lineups last season, and he's working his way into that form again. He had a .347 wOBA in June, and has kicked off July with six hits in three games. He has been moved up and down in the lineup over the last week, which can be disappointing if he hits eighth again. That would be the only knock against him if he does.

Third Base

While Nelson mainly struggles against lefties, he still can struggle at times with right-handed bats. Todd Frazier has been very impressive this season, with 25 homers on the and hitting .281. He has a .392 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a 40.6% hard hit ball rate. He almost doubles his ISO numbers from on the road compared to at home, as expected in this bandbox. If a rainout occurs in Atlanta, your salary should be free to spend as you please.

If you are going a cheaper route, Mike Moustakas will take on Mike Pelfrey, and the Royals have a solid team total tonight. After a terrific start to the season, Pelfrey has really started to struggle, including two starts allowing eight earned in each. He is allowing a .345 wOBA to left-handed bats this season, which is on par with his career allowed. Moustakas has figured it out this season, with a .384 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season. He is part of this Royals team that hates strikeouts with just a 12.2% strikeout rate.

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki is at a really nice price for hitting against a lefty. Although he is not in Coors, Chase Field is still a solid place to hit. It will be interesting to see Corbin in his first start from Tommy John, because he is a solid pitcher. But... Tulo is one of the best lefty hitters in the game. He has a .461 wOBA off lefties this season. You should be able to squeeze Tulo in at your leisure tonight.

Outfield

Narrowing down a top priced outfielder is a little tough, while Mike Trout is sitting just above Ryan Braun tonight. With park factors and a rookie right-hander on the hill, I am leaning toward Braun who is in a zone. He is hitting .483, with five doubles and a homer in the last seven days. He has a .360 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a 39% hard hit ball rate. The Brewers offense has been a lot more lively in the last two weeks, with the big bats starting to click.

Alex Gordon will get the same solid matchup as Moustakas, with Pelfrey struggling against left-handed bats. He is at a fairly cheap price, and hits in a good spot in the order. Gordon has a 28% line drive rate off right-handed pitching this season with a .358 wOBA. With Pelfrey struggling of late, the Royals could be sneaky plays yet again. Jay Bruce and Marcel Ozuna are also honorable mentions in a similar price range.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been clicking, and Gerardo Parra has been a big part of that. He is hitting .405 in the last 10 days and in a great spot in the leadoff role. He is still at a value price despite his hot streak. Parra has a .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a 24% line drive rate. I fully expect this game to exceed the total or be near it in one of the better offensive games tonight.