MLB Cash Game Picks : 9-1-15

Pitcher

There are plenty of aces on the hill tonight, and two squaring off against each other, in Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke. Both have been lights out, but I am looking towards Gerrit Cole, who is really a value play compared to the other aces. He has gotten back on track over the last two starts, after being fairly average over the last few weeks. Cole has been one of the elite cash game plays this season, however, ranking seventh in ERA and 18th in strikeout rate. He is a solid favorite tonight, while the other's wins are in doubt. He also allows you to spend more on bats, unlike the others. Milwaukee has been very mediocre against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 18th in the league in offense, with a 20.7% strikeout rate. Cole has dominated them once already this season, and I would be surprised if he didn't do it again.

Yovani Gallardo makes an excellent salary relief play on DraftKings for an SP2. He faces the Padres in Petco, which is always nice for any pitcher, given Petco Park's ability to limit runs and homers. Gallardo has actually performed well in Texas, despite a dropping strikeout rate. San Diego ranks in the bottom five in offense against right-handed pitching and have the sixth highest strikeout rate. (21.6%) He is a small favorite, mainly due to Andrew Cashner facing the Texas offense that struggles a bit away from home. Gallardo is coming off of a stellar August, with a 1.98 ERA. The strikeouts will probably not be there, but a quality start and salary relief will.

Catcher

The slump is over, the slump is over! Stephen Vogt had hit a massive slump, if you can even call it that. A few homers and hitting over .300 in the last 10 games has restored my faith in Vogt. He has a nice matchup against a fly-ball pitcher, Matt Shoemaker, who has allowed a .315 wOBA to left-handed bats. Shoemaker has been destroyed by the A's this season, allowing 17 runs in four starts, and not making in past the fifth in each. Vogt was off to such a hot start, his slump only brought him down to a .365 wOBA off right-handed pitching. His price is still cheap, which he might be in the process of raising now that he is hitting better.

First Base

It is really hard to get away from Joey Votto in cash games. He has a .577 OBP in the second half, which is just ridiculous. He has a .431 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season, and a .531 wOBA in the second half. The matchup is prime for the price, with Dan Haren allowing a .365 wOBA to left-handed bats in 2015. He is also allowing a ton of dingers, with a 2.37 HR/9 to lefties. He is easily my top option on the day.

Second Base

Jose Altuve showed why he's the top option against lefties last night, and really over the last week and a half he's been on a tear. He is hitting .433 in the last 10 games, with two homers and three stolen bases. He is facing another lefty tonight, and Roenis Elias has allowed a career .322 wOBA to right-handed bats. Altuve has a .404 wOBA off southpaws this season, and I know second base is not usually a position we pay up for, but Altuve is an exception. Being in Minute Maid Park also enhances the chance of an Altuve homer, with Minute Maid Park having a 122 park factor in the last three seasons.

Third Base

Last night was an unlucky one for Manny Machado, given his home run being taken away from Kevin Kiermaier on his first at-bat. He still finished with two hits, and this season he is on par with his usual numbers against southpaws. Machado has a .343 wOBA in the second half, and he's enjoying the lead-off role. Drew Smyly has been on the DL most of the year but has allowed a career .329 wOBA to right-handed bats. He has not looked sharp when on the hill, allowing seven homers to right-handed bats in six starts this season. Machado sits at a nice mid-range price on both sites.

Shortstop

With the change of pitchers for St. Louis, Nationals' bats are now super cheap against a young lefty. This puts a lot of them in play, including Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth. Ian Desmond has really heated up in the second half, with a .383 wOBA. He has monster upside in tonight's matchup, with a .340 wOBA, and .210 ISO against left-handed pitching. Marco Gonzales has an ERA over five down in the minors this season, with a 5.09 FIP. The Nationals should feast on the inexperienced southpaw this evening.

Outfield

There are plenty of options in the middle tiers for outfield tonight, starting with Gregory Polanco. After a .286 wOBA in the first half, Polanco has bounced back with a .367 wOBA in the second. Jimmy Nelson has a notable struggle against left-handed bats, allowing a .375 wOBA. Lefties are also hitting the ball hard, with a 23.6% line drive rate and a 34.6% hard hit ball rate. Park factors are also in Polanco's favor tonight, with Miller Park having a 130 park factor for lefty homers in the last three seasons. This adds to the floor and ceiling he has tonight.

Adam Jones is too cheap for facing a left-hander tonight, and he is the proven lefty-masher on the Baltimore Orioles. He has a .371 wOBA this season off southpaws, with a .241 ISO. I believe Smyly is still trying to get back on track this season and recuperate from his injury, and tonight will not be the start he does. Camden Yards has had a 107 park factor for right-handed homers in the last three seasons. Grab yourself some Jones!

With the Blue Jays shifting around their lineup, Ben Revere finally has value again leading off. Revere has a .329 wOBA off right-handed pitching, and does his damage on the base paths, and scoring runs. Scoring runs is pretty easy with the bats he has behind him. Revere has impressive batted ball stats, starting with a 25% line drive rate off right-handed pitching. The Jays offense comes in always as the top option, but prices are a bit unrealistic for cash games. Cody Anderson has allowed a .327 wOBA to lefties this season, with a 5.24 FIP.