MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Pitcher
Felix Hernandez (R), Mariners | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$11,000 | $10,700 | @A's | 3.61 | 23% | 55.7% | 3.5 | -122 |
Felix Hernandez has not been a steady cash game play of late, and there are some concerns about his health. He is coming off an extra week of rest, and gets the A's, who he has dominated this season. Tonight does not offer a ton of safe plays, resorting to King Felix being the lone option. His recent play has dropped his price down on DrafKings, which works due to inflated hitters' salaries. I am overlooking Hernandez's recent outings, and turning to him as the top cash game option. Oakland has a 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and they rank in the bottom half in team ISO.
Gio Gonzalez (L), Nationals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$8,600 | $7,500 | Braves | 3.20 | 20.6% | 53.5% | 3 | -200 |
A lot of the possible SP2 are all in the same boat, which is they carry some risk. Gio Gonzalez has been up and down in most stats, but has a solid 3.20 FIP, and has upped his ground-ball rate. Washington are monster favorites tonight, so large you would think Max Scherzer is on the hill. The Braves are one of the worst offensive teams against southpaws (.287 wOBA, 78 wRC+, 20.6% strikeout rate). They also have a mediocre 86 wRC+ in the last two weeks. He is at a nice price tag to use as your SP2, and with the way Hernandez has been throwing, Gonzalez could be a cheaper option to stack some bats around.
Catcher
Buster Posey (R), Giants | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,300 | $5,000 | Chad Bettis - R | .360 | .153 | 136 | 4 | 5 |
There is not much behind the dish tonight, and Buster Posey remains the top option, even though him and the Giants have provided a letdown in Coors. Chad Bettis has a .373 wOBA allowed to right-handed bats and an ERA over five in Coors. Posey has a .372 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season, and actually has better numbers off righties than lefties. Posey is hitting .407 in the last 10 games, but has not hit for any power. Look for some pop tonight.
First Base
Jose Abreu (R), White Sox | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,600 | $4,700 | Danny Duffy - L | .392 | .228 | 154 | 3 | 3.5 |
I love Jose Abreu's price on FanDuel tonight, and on DraftKings it is not outrageous, either. Abreu has been lackluster against southpaws this season, but his strikeout rate and batted ball stats are on par with his 2014 numbers against lefties. Duffy has allowed a .344 wOBA to right-handed bats this season with a 5.01 FIP. Duffy has a poor swinging strike rate of just 7.2%, and he's allowed a 26% line drive rate. Outside of Brandon Belt, Abreu comes in as one of my favorite first basemen.
Second Base
Robinson Cano (L), Mariners | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,300 | $3,900 | Jesse Chavez - R | .402 | .228 | 160 | 4 | 3.5 |
Robinson Cano has not slowed down hitting the ball, he has slowed down producing RBI and runs. He is hitting .360 in the last 10 games, but it's been a hollow average. I love his price tag tonight, and he's a cheaper alternative to Jason Kipnis, who is the top option. Cano now has a respectable .346 wOBA off right-handed pitching, and a .399 wOBA in the second half. Jesse Chavez has allowed a .339 wOBA to left-handed bats this season with a 25.6% line drive rate. Chavez has had some rough starts against Seattle this year, allowing 14 earned runs in three starts.
Third Base
Lonnie Chisenhall (L), Indians | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,700 | $3,200 | Alfredo Simon - R | .330 | .172 | 110 | 6 | 4.5 |
I'm looking for some value after naming a few expensive guys, and Lonnie Chisenhall has an excellent matchup. He is a platoon guy at this point, and will be back in the lineup tonight, facing Alfredo Simon. Chisenhall is hitting .498 in the last 10 games, and Simon has allowed a .372 wOBA to left-handed bats. He also has an ERA over six in the second half, which is not unusual with Simon's second half collapses. Chisenhall is a nice salary relief play with a safe floor.
Shortstop
Alexei Ramirez (R), White Sox | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,800 | $3,200 | Danny Duffy - L | .310 | .123 | 94 | 6 | 3.5 |
Shortstop is not a position I am willing to pay up for tonight, and I am looking to get some more exposure against Duffy. I know the White Sox have been poor against southpaws, but Ramirez has some upside. Alexei Ramirez is hitting .372 in the last 10 games, and he has a 28% line drive rate against lefties. Ramirez helps provide salary relief to pay up at other positions, and he has a nice matchup.
Outfield
Carlos Gonzalez (L), Rockies | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$5,600 | $5,000 | Jake Peavy - R | .404 | .289 | 142 | 3 | 5 |
Five homers in the last three games, and I still don't mind the price. Carlos Gonzalez is still a guy to pay up for, maybe not so much on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, it is doable. Cargo has a .422 wOBA off right-handed pitching with a monstrous .349 ISO. Peavy has allowed a .320 wOBA in the last three seasons to lefties, which has been climbing each season. Four straight games with a homer is highly likely.
Matt Kemp (R), Padres | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,300 | $4,000 | Alex Wood - L | .372 | .215 | 141 | 3 | 3.5 |
This is more directed for a DraftKings play due to the pricing difference. Matt Kemp is an awesome mid-tier play facing a lefty. Alex Wood has been very mediocre this season, allowing a .346 wOBA to right-handed bats, and his swinging strike rate has dropped from his career norm. Kemp has a .328 wOBA off southpaws in 2015 with a 41% hard hit ball rate. I prefer Michael Brantley at the same price on FanDuel, or go cheaper with Angel Pagan.
Christian Yelich (L), Marlins | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,200 | $3,900 | Bartolo Colon - R | .352 | .122 | 124 | 2 | 3.5 |
It was a slow start for Christian Yelich, and he has also been on the disabled list quite a few times. Yelich has eight hits in the last three games, and he's been hitting well when healthy in the second half. He is hitting .342 with a .363 wOBA. Bartolo Colon has allowed a .330 wOBA to left-handed bats this season. Yelich will likely be overlooked tonight, and he's at a great price on both sites.
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