MLB GPP Tournament Picks: 7-8-15

The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.

Top Pitcher

This pick gives me a knot in my stomach, but for a boom-or-bust pitcher, Trevor Bauer is it. He has the fifth highest strikeout rate among starters in the night slate, and we have seen him dial them up this season. Date back to earlier in the season, he struck out 11 Astros over six scoreless innings. The Astros have a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and we have seen them throw up some big lines to opposing pitchers. We have also seen them make Cy Young pitchers look like meat, ahem Felix Hernandez. This is a risky play, but if you are looking for Kershaw like strikeouts, Bauer has the potential to give them to you.

Top Hitters

Prince Fielder is my favorite play today, he has a .435 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season, and is playing at home. He has an 8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which you don't see a lot of strikeout rates that low from first basemen. Jeremy Hellickson has allowed a .371 wOBA to lefties, and only has a 40% ground-ball rate. Like stated in our stacks article, the Rangers could be a sneaky one tonight.

Dee Gordon's speed gives him all the upside in the world, and playing in Fenway should increase his chances for extra base hits. Over the last three seasons, Fenway Park has had a 143 park factor for doubles and triples to left-handed bats. Rick Porcello has been very generous this season, allowing a .349 wOBA to lefties, and has a horrific 6.08 ERA. Gordon is going to be relied on to create offense with his legs now that the lineup behind him is weaker.

The world will be on Josh Donaldson tonight, and respectfully should, but Todd Frazier is going to be a low owned player at the hot corner. He has stellar numbers against lefties and is having a tremendous season. Gio Gonzalez has allowed a .339 wOBA to right-handed bats this year, and he's been quite average if you ask me. Frazier can hit for power, and every now and then reward you with a stolen base. He has a ton of upside, and his ownership will be in the single digits.

Michael Brantley showed some power with a homer last night, and that is something he hasn't done a lot of this season. Whether he has issues with the back, or he is just simply struggling for power, we don't expect 40-plus homers, but we expect more than five. I am taking him to hit the seats two nights in a row and expect him to go deep against Dan Straily, who has allowed a career .338 wOBA to left-handed bats. Brantley has a crazy high ceiling, while his floor has shifted downwards this season. He is a cheap price on FanDuel tonight.

Value and Platoon Plays

Scott Van Slyke (OF - LAD) FD: $2,900 DK: $3,700

The usual Scott Van Slyke against a lefty play, but it is gaining more and more steam as a GPP play as the season goes on. These platoon guys we expect to hit lefties every night when they are inserted into the lineup, but remember baseball is pretty hard. Van Slyke can be the ultimate boom-or-bust play at times, but with a .391 wOBA off lefties, we expect him to boom more times than bust.

Welington Castillo (C - ARI) FD: $2,900 DK: $3,300

The reliable platoon catcher, which always seems to matchup when a top arm is pitching. Welington Castillo has a .368 wOBA against lefties in his career, and he will face Matt Harrison, who is making his first start off the DL. Harrison has allowed a .340 wOBA against right-handed bats in his career with a 4.54 FIP. Castillo is what you need in those Kershaw lineups tonight.

Johnny Giavotella (2B - LAA) FD: $2,900 DK: $3,400

If you are looking to get some Coors exposure for cheap, take the Angels leadoff man. In a game with an over of 10.5, and a team total of 5.5 for the Angels, a cheap leadoff man is an excellent play at a weaker position. He will have the lefty matchup, and Chris Rusin has allowed a career .371 wOBA to right-handed bats. Giavotella had a monster series in Texas and will look to continue here in Denver. With everyone clicking behind him, he should score plenty of runs.

David Ortiz (1B - BOS) FD: $3,200 DK: $4,400

The Red Sox have a team total of five tonight, which has been rare for them to hit in the past, but the Sox offense has looked good lately. They have won seven of their last 10 games, and they're certainly not winning games with pitching. They will face righty Tom Koehler tonight, who is nothing more than an average right-handed pitcher. He possesses a small swinging strike rate, and he has a 5.58 FIP against left-handed bats in 2015. While Ortiz is not performing to his standards of the past, he can still knock around a bad righty.