The Big Dinger: 4-19-16

This year we bring you Big Dinger, as we step up to the plate and call our shots. Below are five players in a range of prices that have the top chances of going yard. We take a matchup, advanced stats, Vegas, park factors, and weather into consideration as we narrow down our top long ball targets. Step into the box with us, point your bat out to center, and launch one into the cheap seats.

Note: The Big Diner will be broken down with one play in each tier from both DraftKings and FanDuel

Top-Priced Dingers

GPP Ownership Estimate: 15%

Yes, I'm going back down this road with a Rockies' bat. Yesterday I had Gonzo and Ben Paulsen in this write up, and Paulsen did go yard. So here's hoping to another fun night in Great American Ball Park. Robert Stephenson is now the starter penciled in, after Alfredo Simon was scratched. Cargo is still a strong play against Stephenson, who has been home run prone at times in the majors. He also allowed two lefty homers in his first start this season.

GPP Ownership Estimate: 25%

Donaldson hasn't hit a homerun since last Thursday, which means he's due. He already has five home runs on this short season and gets to hit at a really good hitters' park tonight at Camden Yards. He has a .283 ISO this season against righties. There's a bunch of lefties in the O's pen, and Donaldson is crushing them to a tune of .889 ISO in nine at-bats.

Mid-Priced Dingers

GPP Ownership Estimate:10%

There's been a lot of older players having immense struggles this year, and Alex Rodriguez is one of them. He showed some life on Sunday as he hit his second long ball of the season. He's had zero hits in six at-bats against lefties this year, but he has a .388 career wOBA and .248 ISo against lefties for his career. I know we will never see the old (juiced up) Alex Rodriguez again, but there's still some power in that bat, and when you mix it with Yankee Stadium, good things can happen.

GPP Ownership Estimate: 15%

You don't necessarily think power hitter when you think about George Springer. You think more about his speed, but he has cracked three home runs on the season, and has a pretty good .212 ISO. For his career, Derek Holland has a 1.19 HR/9 but has done a decent job in limiting the long balls with only a .77 HR/9 in two starts. Things might begin to change, as this game is in the hitter friendly confines of Globe Life. Both of Holland's first two starts were on the road, so it will be interesting to see how he attacks these Astro hitters.

The Long Shot Dingers

GPP Ownership Estimate: under 5%

Guyer has a career 15 home runs, including eight last season. So why have I included him here? It's mainly that Joe Kelly has issues with keeping the ball inside the park. He's also had issues with his command as he's allowed eight walks in two starts. Fenway Park is very friendly to righty pull hitters, with the Green Monster just 310 ft away. Guyer has at times been an extreme pull hitter and is averaging 45% for his career.

GPP Ownership Estimate: under 5%

Here's another guy who doesn't have that many career home runs that you'd like when you're predicting to hit a shot. However, Coghlan will benefit from the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. A matchup against Michael Pineda isn't idea, but he's looked pretty mediocre over his first two starts, allowing three home runs and a 6.55 ERA. Coghlan has a career .158 ISO and .340 wOBA against righties. He hit 16 home runs for the Cubs last season, so there is some power in that bat.