MLB Stacking To Win It: 6-12-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Since surrendering five earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Red Sox back on May 20th, David Hess has been much better of late. He has allowed just two earned run in his last 18.2 innings pitched, with matchups against the Rays, Nationals, and Blue Jays. While he has been better, it is important to look at why he has shown signs of improvement and see if he has actually changed, or if he has been getting lucky. Looking at his pitch mix, he has changed a few things. Specifically, Hess has been throwing his fasbtall about eight percent less and he has increased the usage of his changeup by about 10%. His slider usage has also gone down a bit but not enough to really count on it for the long term. Additionally, his left-on-base percentage has been 100% over those three games, while his SIERA has been above 4.79 in each start and his xFIP has been over 4.66 in each of those starts. Considering his ERA in each of those starts never exceeded 1.5, I think it is safe to say that he outpitched his peripherals by a bit. I'm not one that harps on that too much, as some pitchers can just do that, but he is a significantly worse pitcher than he has shown and we can definitely attack him here. We can start with Andrew Benintendi (.200 ISO, .358 wOBA) who has been on a heater so far this month. Since June 1st, he owns a .421 wOBA, .421 ISO, and 168 wRC+. He owns a .228 ISO and .393 wOBA against Hess' four-seam fastball. J.D. Martinez (.354 ISO, .406 wOBA) absolutely rakes against changeups, with a .293 ISO and .359 wOBA, but also crushes fastballs with a .233 ISO and .361 wOBA. Xander Bogaerts (.165 ISO, .322 wOBA) owns a .215 ISO against Hess' four-seam fastball, while Mitch Moreland (.232 ISO, .345 wOBA) owns a .284 ISO against the pitch. Brock Holt (.088 ISO, .277 wOBA) doesn't have eye-popping numbers dating back to last season but has been much improved in 2018 with a .146 ISO and .339 wOBA. He owns a .300 ISO and .444 wOBA against Hess' four-seam fastball. We can certainly target Eduardo Nunez and Jackie Bradley here, as well, but don't overlook Rafael Devers who owns a .361 ISO and .392 wOBA against Hess' four-seam fastball. With Mookie Betts (.224 ISO, .357 wOBA) back from his injury, he is in consideration too. He owns a massive .310 ISO and .422 wOBA against Hess' four-seam fastball.

Colon has had his moments this season where he has pitched admirably, like against the Athletics last time out, but he has also had some blowup moments at times, much like the two of his last four games that he has allowed six earned runs. Tonight he faces another team that has had some struggles at times this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers. This stack isn't for the faint of heart, as L.A. has been disappointing a lot, but they have been hot of late so hopefully they don't kill us tonight. Colon has been plagued by flyballs dating back to last season, allowing a 36.1% FB rate overall, and he has allowed a ton of power to both sides of the plate. His sinker is getting blasted, as he is allowing a .231 ISO and 40.30% hard contact rating on the pitch but he is also giving up a .385 ISO and .411 wOBA on his changeup. Matt Kemp (.205 ISO, .345 wOBA) is a good place to start. He has been on a heater over the past two weeks, posting a .438 wOBA and .333 ISO over that span, and he owns a .250 ISO against sinkers. Cody Bellinger (.287 ISO, .359 wOBA) owns a .248 ISO and .363 wOBA against sinkers. Yasmani Grandal (.236 ISO, .335 wOBA) is a great option behind the dish that owns a .377 ISO and .440 wOBA against sinkers, while Max Muncy (.327 ISO, .400 wOBA) continues to be a beast that homers against practically every right-handed pitcher he faces and owns a .338 wOBA against sinkers. Joc Pederson (.245 ISO, .355 wOBA) owns a .256 ISO and .408 wOBA against sinkers, as well. Chris Taylor (.212 ISO, .351 wOBA) owns a .376 wOBA and .196 ISO against sinkers and is projected to bat leadoff tonight.

Ah, James Shields day is here! Shields has been blasted in two June starts, posting a 6.92 ERA, and has allowed three homers in each of those starts. It is a stark contrast from his stellar May, where he posted a 3.38 ERA, and I expect that the trend of terrible starts will continue tonight against the Indians. Shields has been terrible against left-handed hitters, allowing a .224 ISO, .345 wOBA, 41.3% FB rate, and 31.4% HCR to them dating back to last season, so those will be the bats to target from Cleveland tonight. We will want to target those that hit 89-90 MPH four-seam fastballs, along with cutters, changeups, and knuckle-cruves well, as those are the pitches he throws most frequently. He is allowing a .250 ISO on his four-seam fastball, a .222 ISO on his knuckle-curve, and a .316 ISO on his cutter. Francisco Lindor (.243 ISO, .340 wOBA) is a pretty good place to start as he owns a .250 ISO and .375 wOBA against 89 MPH four-seam fastballs and a .336 wOBA against cutters. Jose Ramirez (.285 ISO, .396 wOBA) owns a .359 ISO against the four-seam fastball and a .222 ISO against cutters, while Michael Brantley (.192 ISO, .368 wOBA) owns an 88% contact rate against Shields' four-seam fastball, a .449 wOBA against cutters, and a .333 xwOBA against knuckle-curves. Melky Cabrera (.102 ISO, .306 wOBA) owns a pretty solid 40% HCR and 91% contact rating against Shields' four-seam fastball, a .301 ISO against knuckle-curves, and a .353 wOBA against cutters. Yonder Alonso (.219 ISO, .362 wOBA) has feasted on Shields' four-seam fastball, posting a .483 ISO against it, and has also posted a .359 wOBA and .197 ISO against cutters. Lonnie Chisenhall (.216 ISO, .344 wOBA) owns a .222 ISO and .479 wOBA against Shields' four-seam fastball, a .247 ISO and .316 wOBA against knuckle-curves, along with a .222 ISO and .485 wOBA against cutters. Chisenhall is one of my favorite value bats on the entire slate. Even though I prefer the left-handed hitters here, Yan Gomes and Edwin Encarnacion are option here, as well.