New York Mets - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Mets were supposed to be in the middle of a rebuild last year, and they exceeded all but the most optimistic of expectations by winning the National League East with 90 wins and reaching the World Series. Their young pitching was dominant and should continue to mow down hitters this year, and the offense ranked tied for ninth in wRC+ but will look different this year. The rotation is littered with studs. The lineup lacks star power, but it features length. Therefore there are plenty of hitting options for daily gamers to pick from even if they aren't of the elite hitter variety.

Park Factors

Citi Field opened in 2009 and was a pitcher-friendly park that was extremely difficult to hit homers in. The dimensions were updated before the 2012 season, and it plays more fairly for power hitters now. In fact, lefties get a 11% boost hitting taters. Righties are still docked 2% for home-run hitting, but that's not too bad. It is still a pitcher-friendly park, though, with a 4% suppression of runs to lefties and a 16% knock against run scoring for righties. Lefty-power hitters stand out as strong plays at Citi Field, and pitchers with all batted ball profiles can be started there.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

* Zack Wheeler's statistics were from 2014

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Travis d'Arnaud - 6/72

Kevin Plawecki - 9/72

There might not be a better pitch-framing catcher duo than Travis d'Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. The Mets are the only team with two catchers who cracked the top-10 in per game pitch framing value among catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches in 2015, per StatCorner. Using the same threshold for ranking, d'Arnaud ranked 20th out of 79 catchers in 2014. Even if he overachieved last year, it likely wasn't by a lot. Plawecki was a rookie last year, and thus, that's his only body of work to judge. Both catchers should aid an already uber-talented staff in getting close calls.

Spring Training Storyline

Unlike most teams, the Mets enter the spring with next to no lineup or rotation questions. With that in mind, there's only one Spring Training storyline worth following for them as of now as opposed to the pair of questions included in each of the other team previews published to date.

How far along in the rehab process will Zack Wheeler be by Spring Training's end?

Zack Wheeler underwent Tommy John surgery in March last year. The normal recovery period is roughly a year, but Wheeler has stated that he hopes to return in early June. There's no reason to rush him back since four rotation spots were already full before the club re-signed Bartolo Colon, and the hefty veteran will fill the fifth spot in Wheeler's stead. If he returns to pre-injury form, the Mets and daily gamers will be in luck. Wheeler struck out an impressive 23.6% of the batters he faced in 2014 with a 3.55 FIP, 3.49 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA. His swinging strike rate that year was 10.0%, per FanGraphs, and the league average that year was 9.5%. The young righty's slider and curveball both had whiff percentages north of 14% in 2014, according to Brooks Baseball, and even his fourseam fastball best a 10% whiff rate sitting at 10.3%. Wheeler's biggest issue prior to his injury was control. He walked 10.0% of the batters he faced in 2014, but that was an improvement over his 10.7% walk rate in 2013. Regaining control is often cited as the last hurdle for pitchers to clear after returning from Tommy John surgery, ergo even if Wheeler returns in early June, it's not a lock he'll be daily baseball relevant immediately after his activation from the disabled list. His rehab starts should shed some light on his control and how his stuff looks -- even if there isn't PITCHf/x data to analyze from his minor league rehab starts.

2016 Lineup Outlook

After back-to-back down years, Curtis Granderson bounced back to post his best offensive season as measured by wRC+ since 2011. He hit 26 homers, the most since 2012, and reached double-digit steals with 11. His 13.3% walk rate fit perfectly atop the lineup and helped elevate his floor. His platoon split last year was much greater than his since 2013 in the tables illustrates, and he was a stud against right-handed pitching. Last season, he posted a 14.1% walk rate, 19.1% strikeout rate, 24 homers, a .225 ISO, .384 wOBA and 151 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Even if you're skeptical of him matching his production against righties from last year, his since 2013 numbers against righties makes him a solid outfield option, and hitting leadoff will net him the maximum number of plate appearances in a game.

Lucas Duda is quite streaky, but at the end of the day, his 2015 numbers were remarkably similar to his 2014 numbers. Interestingly, he had a reverse platoon split last year sporting a .260 ISO, .375 wOBA and 144 wRC+ against lefties compared to a .236 ISO, .354 wOBA and 130 wRC+ against righites. Don't count on him repeating that, though, since he had just a 5.3% walk rate and 31.8% strikeout rate against southpaws. His lack of plate discipline and high strikeout rate will make it next to impossible to repeat his success, but his power showing against lefties makes him a sneaky contrarian play in certain lefty-lefty matchups. Against righties, he's a solid play in cash games and GPPs thanks to his high ceiling from big power and elevated floor from elite plate discipline (14.0% walk rate).

Travis d'Arnaud remains snake bitten as he tallied only 268 plate appearances last year, but it was a breakout offensive campaign for him. He reached the seats a dozen times with a .218 ISO, .355 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He was good against righties with a .186 ISO, .329 wOBA and 113 wRC+, but he was dominant against lefties. In 52 plate appearances against southpaws in 2015, d'Arnaud smacked four homers with a 13.5% walk rate, 11.5% strikeout rate, .356 ISO, .467 wOBA and 207 wRC+. He's establishing himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the game. The biggest knock on d'Arnaud could be his lineup spot since he was bounced all over the place last year, but if he can net a top-five lineup spot like I've projected, that would be huge for his value.

The Mets dealt from a position of strength moving Jon Niese in exchange for Neil Walker. The former Pirate is a switch-hitter, but he might as well only carry the lumber to the dish with him when he faces a righty. His numbers dipped even lower against lefties and he's a total non-option against southpaws. In fact, if the Mets are wise, they should platoon Walker with Wilmer Flores (.290 ISO, .401 wOBA and 162 wRC+ versus lefties in 2015) at the keystone position. Walker's .180 ISO, .340 wOBA and 119 wRC+ against righties last year were his lowest marks since 2011, but they were strong. He'll get a slight bump in value swapping PNC Park for Citi Field as his home digs. If he hits higher in the lineup than I'm projecting, his value will also get a bump, but even hitting sixth should award him plenty of RBI opportunities thanks to the length of the lineup.

Switch-hitting Asdrubal Cabrera made the most of his only year in Tampa Bay. After back-to-back years of falling short of a 100 wRC+, he kicked it back up above average with a 104 wRC+. His power output was right in line with his work in the three previous years both in terms of homers and ISO. For his career, Cabrera has a nearly non-existent platoon split (105 wRC+ against lefties and 103 wRC+ against righties). He's been better against righties than lefties since 2013, as the table above shows, and that was the case last year, too. With a 10 point gap in wRC+ that favored facing righties last year (97 wRC+ versus lefties and 107 wRC+ versus righties), it's best to use Cabrera against righties as opposed to lefties to start the year. If he gets off to a good start against lefties, his track record of success will make it easy to buy into it being sustainable. The bad news is that if Cabrera hits down order his run and RBI upside are limited.

Juan Lagares' glove is his calling card, and that doesn't help him from a daily baseball perspective. His lineup spot hitting directly in front of the pitcher doesn't either. That said, he's been an above average offensive player against southpaws and could have punt value against them.

2016 Pitching Outlook

He didn't come with the fanfare and gaudy prospect rankings his rotation peers did, but Jacob deGrom was the best pitcher for the Mets last year. In his second year in The Show, deGrom validated his excellent rookie year by basically duplicating his ERA estimators while striking more batters out and walking fewer batters. Among qualified starters in 2015, he ranked seventh in strikeout rate, seventh in K-BB% (22.2%), fifth in WHIP (0.98), fourth in FIP, seventh in xFIP (2.92), eighth in SIERA (2.99) and ninth in swinging strike rate (12.7%). deGrom brings a deep arsenal to the table with two high-octane heaters (a fourseam fastball and sinker that both averaged over 95 mph, per Brooks Baseball), a changeup, slider and curve. He uses all of them regularly and four of his pitches feature a whiff percentage above 13% with his sinker bringing up the rear at a still awesome 9.11% whiff rate. His changeup is his best bat-missing pitch with a 23.56% whiff rate, but the depth of his arsenal allows him to retire both lefties and righties. It also gives him plenty of weapons if he doesn't have feel for one of his pitches in a given start. The 27-year-old pitcher is an ace and an elite option in all game types.

Matt Harvey's return from missing the entire 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery was glorious. His fourseam fastball was humming at his pre-injury level in excess of 96 mph, and all four of his pitches (fourseam fastball, changeup, slider and curve) had whiff rates above 10%. His changeup didn't miss quite as many bats as it did before undergoing Tommy John surgery, but there's nothing wrong with a 16.17% whiff rate, and his curve actually featured the highest whiff percentage of his career (16.36%). Harvey had no problem recapturing his control and walked just 4.9% of the batters he faced while continuing to pile up strikeouts. Harvey ranked within the top 10 among qualified starters in walk rate and WHIP and cracked the top 20 in strikeout rate, FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Harvey's great and a top-flight option in all game types.

Noah Syndergaard shoved it when he reached the majors and didn't look like a rookie. He attacked hitters instead of nibbling (5.1% walk rate) and blew them away. The righty did an adequate job of inducing ground balls (46.5% ground-ball rate) in addition to piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes, and the results were glowing and backed up by his 3.25 FIP, 2.91 xFIP and 2.95 SIERA. Thor throws harder than his rotation mates. In fact, his fourseam fastball average velocity (97.71 mph) and sinker average velocity (97.67 mph) led the majors among starting pitchers who threw a minimum of 200 fourseam fastballs and sinkers, according to Baseball Prospectus. He backs the cheddar with a changeup, slider and hammer curveball. His sinker had the lowest whiff percentage at 9.67% while his slider led the way at 24.42%. He used his slider just 3.18% of the time, per Brooks Baseball, and it's scary to think that Thor has untapped upside. Syndergaard makes it three aces in the Mets' rotation.

Thor wasn't the only rookie to make a splash with the Mets. To a lesser extent, Steven Matz shined as well. The rookie southpaw made six starts spanning 35.2 innings. His 2.27 ERA bested his ERA estimators (3.61 FIP, 3.56 xFIP and 3.63 SIERA) and will surely regress when his 91.4% LOB% normalizes, but his ERA estimators make for a fine spot to project his ERA to land and would be quite good. Matz was stingy with free passes walking just 6.7% of the batters he faced. And after blowing minor league hitters away, he continued to strikeout batters in the majors at an above average rate. Matz 8.8% swinging strike rate was below average and wouldn't seem to support him continuing to strikeout major leaguers at an above average clip, but he, like the trio headlining the rotation, throws hard and backs his heat with strong secondary pitches. The lefty had an average fourseam fastball velocity of 94.57 mph, more than 10 mph faster than his changeup (83.88 mph). He was able to slow things down even more with a 77.59 mph curve, too. His changeup and curve give him two pitches with a whiff rate above 10% (10.56% on the curve and 14.81% on the changeup), and even playing a little country hardball can net some whiffs with his fourseam fastball resulting in a 8.22% whiff rate. The biggest knock on Matz is that he's struggled to stay healthy and never pitched more than 150 innings in a season. Otherwise, Matz looks good and should be a regular daily baseball option in all game types.

Stock Watch

Up - Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto's stock rose exponentially last year. The bat was considered good, but he exceeded expectations as shot through the minors quickly. He actually totaled just three fewer plate appearances in the majors than he did at the Double-A level. The team's 2014 first-round pick wasn't overwhelmed by the stage. The Mets will probably give Conforto a chance to hit left-handed pitching since they would be foolish to pigeon-hole him as a platoon outfielder before giving him a chance to make adjustments and figure out southpaws. However, that doesn't mean daily gamers should be using him against lefties. Using him against righties is a totally different story, though. In 179 plate appearances, the sweet-swinging lefty ripped 14 doubles, nine homers with an 8.9% walk rate, 20.1% strikeout rate, .256 ISO, .371 wOBA and 142 wRC+ against righties. If the Mets handle him with kid gloves and don't place him in a prominent lineup spot, this up arrow will look misplaced. Since he tallied 54 plate appearances hitting third, fourth or fifth last year, I have faith in manager Terry Collins doing the right thing and using Conforto in the heart of the order.

Down - David Wright

A back injury limited David Wright to just 174 plate appearances in 38 games last year. For the second year in a row, his ISO was below .150, too. When he did play, he was very good offensively, though, so his stock being down is all about concerns relating to him staying healthy. Wright's death on lefties, and last season, he rocked a .243 ISO, .438 wOBA and 187 wRC+ against them. He remains one of the best options at the hot corner when facing a lefty, but he's merely an okay option when facing a righty (.113 ISO, .334 wOBA and 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2015).

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.