Oakland Athletics - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

With just 68 wins last year, the A's failed to reach the postseason for the first time since 2011 and sported their lowest win total since 1997. The seemingly always changing small market team shipped off would-be 2015 American League MVP Josh Donaldson before the season, and they had a number of fresh faces all over the diamond. This year, they once again look like the worst team in the American League West, but their willingness to utilize platoons and adjust their batting order based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher helps them maximize the value of players, and it maximizes the daily baseball utility of their players, too. The roster jugging also enhances their stackability. Their rotation has some talent at the top, but the back end is far less exciting.

Park Factors

The O.co Coliseum is a pitcher-friendly park that pitchers of any batted ball type can enjoy. It plays neutrally for run scoring for righties, but it suppresses runs by 7% to lefties. It also depresses homers by 19% to lefties and 20% to righties. It also enhances infield flies by 19% to lefties and 13% to righties, and infield flies are basically gift outs. With spacious foul territory, the bump in popups makes sense. Investing in hitters there won't often be an advisable move, but even mediocre pitchers get a pick-me-up in Oakland.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Stephen Vogt - 45/72

Josh Phegley - 32/72

The backstop duo of Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley won't be adding value to the pitching staff. They both rank as average or worse pitch framers. There is some reason to hope Vogt could do a better job pitch framing this season. Vogt didn't catch enough in 2014 to hit 1,000 pitches caught, but among catchers who caught a minimum of 500 pitches, Vogt ranked 16th out of 91 catchers in per game pitch framing value, per StatCorner. A sample size of 698 pitches, the total he reached in 2014, is small enough the good showing could be a fluke. I wouldn't bank on him being an asset for pitchers to throw to.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will fill the fourth and fifth starter roles?

The first three starters are set in stone, but the last two spots should be up for grabs. The competition isn't limited to just four pitchers for two spots, but the most likely candidates to sew up the two spots, in my opinion, are Jarrod Parker, Chris Bassitt, Kendall Graveman and Henderson Alvarez. Parker has gone through two Tommy John procedures and made just four minor league starts before fracturing his throwing elbow. The elbow required surgery, but he's rehabbing and preparing to start this year. As recently as December, Susan Slusser (A's beat writer) relayed that manager Bob Melvin and general manager Billy Beane "still sees Jarrod Parker as a starter rather than a reliever." Given the serious nature of his elbow injuries, I won't even pretend to know what Parker will have left in the tank. He was basically an average big league starter in his last two healthy seasons (2012 and 2013), and he struck out under 19% of the batters he faced those two years, so the ceiling appears limited. He was a much ballyhooed prospect with good stuff, though, and if not for the lost years due to injury, it's possible he could have kicked things up a notch. At this point, getting back to average would be a hell of an accomplishment for Parker, but it's far from a sure thing, and average might not even be good enough to be a fourth or fifth starter for Oakland.

Based on last year's work, Bassitt deserves one of the two spots at the back of the rotation. He made 18 appearances in the majors and 13 of those were starts, and he made 13 appearances at the Triple-A level with 10 as starts. In his 13 starts for the A's, Bassitt pitched 75.1 innings and compiled a 18.0% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, a 3.41 FIP, 4.15 xFIP and 4.17 SIERA. The righty was good against lefties (.292 wOBA allowed), but he was knocked around a bit by righties (.324 wOBA allowed). Based on last year's usage, I'd hazard a guess that he enters the spring behind another member in the competition for one of the last two spots in the rotation. Bassitt should soak up some starts, though, since one member of the competition isn't expected to be healthy and ready to pitch in games until May.

Graveman is the mystery man I hinted at being ahead of Bassitt in the pecking order. Graveman made 21 appearances for the A's last year and all were starts. He also made four appearances in the minors, and all were starts, too. Bassitt was yo-yoed between starting and relieving and Graveman was not. Graveman struck out batters at a lower rate, walked batters at a higher rate and gave up a higher percentage of hard contact than Bassitt. Having said that, Graveman did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (50.0% ground-ball rate) and walked batters at roughly a league average. Two out of three good numbers isn't bad, but relying on contact with a team defense that FanGraphs ranked 26th last year behind him is a recipe for disaster. Perhaps some of the offseason changes will improve their defense, but they have a long way to go to even get to average. The best thing that can be said about Graveman from a daily baseball perspective is that he could provide a boost to right-handed batters. The 251 righties he faced totaled a .474 slugging and .342 wOBA against him last season.

Don't be fooled by Alvarez's FIP in the table above, he was horrible last year and totaled a 6.45 ERA. The righty lost nearly three mph on his average fourseam fastball and sinker and underwent shoulder surgery to repair a torn right labrum last July. The Marlins opted to non-tender him, which is a red flag, but the A's were willing to extend him a one-year contract worth $4.25 million with another $1.6 million available in incentives. He's expected to miss the first month of the season, and the list of pitchers who've successfully pitched at pre-injury levels after shoulder surgery is shorter than those who've bounced back from elbow procedures. Alvarez wasn't a big bat-misser before his shoulder surgery (12.6% strikeout rate in his career and 14.4% in 2014), but he was able to pitch deep into games by limiting walks (4.3% walk rate in 2014) and coaxing worm burners at a high rate (53.8% in 2014). Even though he wasn't a source of strikeouts, he was a hard thrower and likely needs his pre-injury velo in order to rebound. The ceiling isn't high, and there isn't much to analyze until he provides some PITCHf/x data in live-game action.

Who will slot second in the batting order?

The second spot in the order is likely to vary depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Marcus Semien tallied 178 of his plate appearances from the two-hole in 2014, his second highest plate appearance total from any spot in the order (190 hitting ninth led the way). The right-handed hitting shortstop isn't worth using in daily baseball against righties, but if he gets shot up to the two-hole against lefties, he's in play. As impressive as his since 2013 totals against lefties are, he was at his best against southpaws last year. He raked to the tune of a .178 ISO, .377 wOBA and 144 wRC+ in 164 plate appearances against lefties. He's even an occasional stolen base threat with 11 last season in 16 attempts.

Reacquired second baseman and switch-hitter Jed Lowrie is also a candidate to his second against lefties. His production has varied wildly year to year against southpaws. In 2012, he managed a 73 wRC+ against lefties, that number jumped to 118 in 2013, dipped to 71 in 2014 and shot up to 148 last year. For his career that dates back to 2008, he has a .347 wOBA, 9.1% walk rate, .344 wOBA and 116 wRC+. His on-base skills fit the profile of a number-two hitter, and if he hits there, he's a lower-ceiling option than Semien, but a usable daily option nonetheless. As is the case with his work against lefties, Lowrie's numbers have been up and down against righties, too. Last year, he was awful tallying a 69 wRC+, but he walked at a high rate (9.4%) and was undermined by a .226 BABIP. He'd strong together three straight years of wRC+ marks above 100 from 2012 through 2014, and four in five years from 2010 through 2014. There's potential for him to have value against lefties and righties, and there's potential for him to slot in the two-hole against both, but because he doesn't hit for more than average power and he rarely steals bases, his value is primarily tied to his lineup spot.

Switch-hitting outfielder Coco Crisp was awful last year in an injury-shortened -- surprise -- season. He's played in more than 140 games just two times since reaching the majors in 2002. Even in a down year last season, he showcased excellent patience with a 9.4% walk rate. He's also a burner, and his speed would be welcomed at the top of the order. He stole only two bases last year, but stole 19 bases in 2014 and 21 in 2013. Crisp is far better against righties than lefties, so there's little reason to think he'd slot second against southpaws, but prior to last year's disaster, his lowest wRC+ since 2011 was 105 (totaled in 2011), and he'd rattled off a 112 wRC+ or higher from 2012 through 2014. At 36-years old, there's no guarantee that Crisp has a bounce back in him, but he's only a year removed from being a useful fantasy option against righties (.327 wOBA and 112 wRC+ in 2014).

As the projected lineup table indicates, I don't expect Crisp to hit second against righties, I think Yonder Alonso will be awarded that lineup spot. The former Padre has a 9.3% walk rate against righties in his career, and he's coming off of a year in which he had a higher walk rate (10.8%) than a strikeout rate (10.1%) against right-handed pitchers and added a .333 wOBA and 115 wRC+ for good measure. Save for his disastrous 2014 against righties, he's ripped off a .356 OBP or higher against righties in every year except his 20 plate appearances against righties in his first year in 2010. The on-base skills fit the two-hole and the run scoring potential would provide him modest daily value, but first base is loaded and his .111 ISO against righties last year and .127 ISO against them for his career is laughable and not helpful at all. At best, he'd have value in stacks hitting second or as a punt if his salary is tiny, but the opportunity cost passing up on countless better first basemen isn't ideal.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Billy Burns spent April raking at the Triple-A level, but he didn't look back after his promotion to the parent squad in May. His walk rate of just 4.7% was well short of his 8.9% walk rate in 101 Triple-A plate appearances last year and his previous high walk rates in the minors. He does have a bit more walk upside, but hitters who don't threaten pitchers with pop frequently fail to translate high walk rates from the minors to the majors because pitchers have more incentive to offer those hitters a cookie than a free pass. Burns makes up for his low walk rate by avoiding punch outs (14.6% strikeout rate last year), and like most speedsters, he has a high BABIP (.339 in 2015). When he gets on base, Burns wreaks havoc. He stole 26 bases in 34 attempts last season and stole more than 50 bases in total in the minors in 2013 (74 stolen bases) and in the minors and majors in 2014 (57 stolen bases). Burns' .334 OBP last year isn't other worldly, especially for a leadoff hitter, but it's acceptable and is attached to blazing wheels. The best time to use Burns in 2016 will be when he faces a pitcher and catcher combo that struggles to control the running game.

Danny Valencia raked as a platoon option, starting against lefties, for the Blue Jays, and he was somewhat surprisingly designated for assignment. The A's claimed him, and used him in a full-time role. The third baseman thrived hitting 11 homers with a 9.8% walk rate, 19.5% strikeout rate .246 ISO, .375 wOBA and 142 wRC+ in 205 plate appearances donning green and gold. He's a 31-year old whose .374 wOBA and 140 wRC+ in 229 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers last year is leaps and bounds better than his production against righties in any other season. His previous best marks against righties in wOBA and wRC+ were .312 and 91, respectively, in 2010. Don't use him against righties under most circumstances early in the year. He does, however, have a strong track record against left-handed pitchers. Valencia's since 2013 work against left-handed pitchers isn't a far cry from the numbers he's posted against them in his career that began in 2010. If he hits in the heart of the order for the A's, especially against lefties, he'll be one of my favorite platoon options to deploy in daily games in 2016.

Josh Reddick didn't exactly reproduce his breakout 2012 campaign last year, but he did smack 20 homers after hitting just a dozen in back-to-back years. For a power hitter, Reddick does an excellent job of making contact and struck out in only 11.2% of his plate appearances last year. His walk rate also checked in as slightly above average at 8.4%. Reddick shouldn't be used against lefties, but he's quite good against righties. He followed up a .239 ISO, .367 wOBA and 140 wRC+ against righties in 2014 with strong marks of a .189 ISO, .356 wOBA and 129 wRC+. Because power is Reddick's calling card, he's a better play in road contests in a homer-friendly park, but he'll have some usefulness against righties at home, too.

Stephen Vogt was used as a full-time player in the majors for the first time last year. Quite the accomplishment for a 30-year old. His season was a tale of two halves with him recording a .211 ISO, .369 wOBA and 138 wRC+ in the first half and a .133 ISO, .275 wOBA and 73 wRC+ in the second half. There are some red flags in his second half numbers (a drop in walk rate, slight uptick in strikeout rate and sizable changes to some of his batted ball data) that indicate his collapse was more than bad luck. Vogt showed signs of life in August (.211 ISO, .369 wOBA and 138 wRC+), but gamers should take his full-season numbers in 2015 with a large grain of salt. He's a non-option against southpaws, and he's a fringe option against righties out of the chute.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Sonny Gray's sub-three ERA in 2015 painted the picture of a pitcher who made substantial gains from 2014 to last year, but the underlying numbers indicate he only made small gains. That's not to say small gains shouldn't be embraced, but projecting Gray to pitch to his career ERA estimators (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA) is wiser than expecting him to continue to best those marks by around a half run. The righty does a good job of avoiding hard contact, though, so besting his ERA estimators and recording a lower than league average BABIP is within reach. He made strides in control, and even though his strikeout rate ticked down from 20.4% in 2014 to 20.3% last year, he missed more bats improving from a 8.9% swinging strike rate to a 9.7% swinging strike rate. Hovering around a 20% strikeout rate is a reasonable expectation. Add it all up, and Gray's a very good pitcher even if he's not a truly elite one.

Over the last two years, Jesse Hahn has made 28 starts (12 for the Padres in 2014 and 16 for the A's last year). In those starts, he's recorded a 3.48 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA with a 18.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 51.5% ground-ball rate. The move from the National League to the American League didn't bode well for Hahn's ability to avoid contact. His swinging strike rate torpedoed from 10.1% in 2014 to 7.5% last season. His fastball (both fourseam and sinker) velocity ticked upward with the A's, making the drop in whiff rate baffling. Only his curve had a whiff rate above 10% last year, according to Brooks Baseball, and that barely did with an 11.45% whiff rate. The righty missed the entire second half of the year with elbow and forearm issues, but he's been in a throwing program since September. Hahn looks like a poor-man's Sonny Gray. He's usable in daily baseball, but he has an even lower ceiling than his rotation mate.

Stock Watch

Up - Rich Hill

Rich Hill's career path is a fascinating one that would make for an interesting book one day, but as opposed to re-telling it, I'll merely hit the important points from last season. He began the year as a reliever in the Nationals organization struggling with his control at the Triple-A level in 25 appearances. He left affiliated ball and dazzled in two Independent League starts for the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League. The Red Sox took a chance on him, and he was excellent in five starts for Triple-A Pawtucket (22.7% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate and 3.59 FIP). He parlayed his Triple-A work into four starts that exceeded even the most optimistic expectations members of the Hill family could have had for him. He struck out 10 batters in each of his first three starts, tying up two of the best offenses in baseball against lefties (the Blue Jays and Rays). The lefty worked a 48.4% ground-ball rate, walked only 4.7% of the batters he faced and validated his gaudy strikeout rate with a 11.3% swinging strike rate. Hill leaned heavily on his fourseam fastbal and curve (they accounted for over 86% of his pitches thrown for the Red Sox, per Brooks Baseball), mixed in a slider (3.92% usage), change (8.06% usage) and even had a slow curve (0.46% usage) and sinker (0.92% usage) in his repertoire. His three most used pitches had whiff percentages above 10%. His curve had the lowest whiff percentage (10.84%) of the trio of his most used pitches, the changeup was sandwiched in the middle (11.43%) and his fourseam fastball was untouchable (16.19%). He moves from a hitter-friendly home ballpark with the Red Sox to a pitcher-friendly home ballpark with the A's. A four-start sample is too small to buy into completely, but he was so dominant that he deserves usage early in the year, even before he validates his resurrection.

Down - Billy Butler

Billy Butler had a better offensive season in 2015 than in 2014, so it might seem odd to see him listed as the down choice in the Stock Watch section. Butler's coming off of his second straight sub-100 wRC+ season, though, and his third straight year of tallying a sub-.150 ISO. Most importantly, Butler's numbers have crumbled against lefties. He was never a strong pick against righties, but even in a bad 2014, he hammered southpaws (.368 wOBA and 137 wRC+). Last year, he was responsible for a .150 ISO, .303 wOBA and 93 wRC+. He hasn't tallied a ISO north of .200 since 2012, and he's no longer even a viable option against lefties until demonstrates signs of a rebound.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.