St. Louis Cardinals - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 87.5

The St. Louis Cardinals project to be one of the better teams in baseball once again this year. They are a well-balanced club with hitting and pitching talent galore. Daily gamers will have no shortage of options to pick from on the Cardinals.

Park Factors

Interestingly, there aren't a ton of noteworthy park factors to highlight at Busch Stadium. What that means is that it's neither hitter's nor pitcher's park. It does, however, suppress homers to lefties by 8% and right-handed batters by 11%, so fly ball pitchers are in play.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Yadier Molina- 28/79

Tony Cruz- 67/79

For all of Yadier Molina's well earned defensive accolades, he was essentially a slightly above average pitch framer last year. In other words, he's not going to hurt his pitchers in regards of snagging strikes, but he's not going to help them a ton either. Tony Cruz, on the other hand, is a terrible pitch framer and Cardinals pitchers should be viewed slightly less favorably when he's behind the dish.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will be the team's fifth starter?

Jaime Garcia could open the year as the team's fifth starter, but since he's never pitched 200 innings in a season and hasn't broken 100 since 2012, my money is on Carlos Martinez eventually supplanting him. It's also possible Martinez opens the year in the rotation. He's small in stature, but big in arm strength and stuff. In seven starts last year he totaled a 51.1% ground ball rate, 3.60 FIP, 23.0% strikeout rate and 12.4% swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs. Martinez is a potential stud, and he could be under priced early in the season. Also in the mix is 23-year-old Marco Gonzalez. The southpaw also has daily game potential, but not nearly to the extent of Martinez. Get your pompoms out daily gamers and root for Martinez to make the rotation.

Will the team platoon Matt Adams with Mark Reynolds at first base?

Matt Adams' leash as an everyday player seems to be shorter. He's struggled with lefties in his career, despite holding his own against them in the minors. Mark Reynolds has been added to the mix as a possible platoon partner. Reynolds is an all-or-nothing slugger who would make for a GPP option if he carved out regular playing time. Adams is a non-option against lefties, so a platoon would be the ideal situation for daily gamers.

2015 Lineup Outlook

It starts at the top with on-base-machine Matt Carpenter. The left-handed hitter has shown a touch more power against lefties, but he's been a superior hitter against righties. His lack of big home run power might have some daily gamers looking the other way, but he's great at racking up points with doubles by hammering line drives to the gaps. Since 2012, his 26.3% line drive rate against right-handed pitchers is the fourth highest mark among qualified hitters. Making things better, he has just a tiny 1.7% infield fly ball rate. Carpenter is one of the better options at the hot corner in daily games when he's facing a right-handed pitcher.

The left-handed hitting Jason Heyward struggles with southpaws, so avoid him when he faces one. When facing right-handed pitchers, though, he's a well above average hitter who has some raw power he's yet to really fully unleash in games. He'll be a popular middle-tier outfielder when facing a righty thanks to a cushy lineup spot and his success against right-handers, but there is upside for him to move into the upper tier in his last year before reaching free agency.

Old reliable Matt Holliday hits third in what should be a potent offense. He rakes against right-handed pitching, but he's at his best against lefties. Because he's a pricey outfielder, it will likely only make sense to roster him when facing a southpaw in order to get the most bang for your buck.

As I mentioned above, Adams could find himself in a platoon. That's not a big deal for daily gamers. When facing a right-handed pitcher, he makes for a middle-tier first base option thanks to both his own hitting skills, and the skills of the hitters in front of him who should provide him ample RBI opportunities.

Yadier Molina is penciled in as the number-five hitter above, but it's possible he could drop a spot to sixth. Now 32-years old, it's possible Father Time could get the best of Molina, but even with some regression due to his age, he'll remain one of the best offensive players at the catcher position. Furthermore, his numbers last year don't provide evidence for any potential cliff season. As the number-five hitter he'd have more value than hitting sixth, but in either lineup slot he'll be one of the best options at the position when facing a southpaw.

There were probably some curious baseball fans last year who wondered how Jhonny Peralta would perform after getting popped for PED use the year before. The answer wasn't just fine, he played damn well. As a slightly above average hitter against right-handed pitchers, he'll have some daily game value when facing them due to the dearth of offensive options at shortstop. When facing a southpaw, though, he's a great play depending on his price. Peralta rakes against lefties and will be nice to hook with Molina, especially if both move up in the order with Adams dropping against southpaws.

Kolten Wong has upside, but as a down order hitter it's slightly muted in daily games. Wong swatted 12 homers and 20 stolen bases in 433 plate appearances last year. His splits in the majors are misleading. The left-handed hitting second baseman has fared better against lefties than righties in his limited big league time, but he was much better against right-handed pitchers in the minors. Trust the longer track record he has in the minors and use him against righties. He could open the year as a bargain, even with his lineup slot hurting his stock a little bit.

Jon Jay is basically the poster-child for what a hollow batting average is. He doesn't offer much power, so his singles and doubles won't be super useful at the bottom of the order if he doesn't have hitters on in front of him. If by chance he moved up in the order, his hollow average would carry more weight with him driving in runs and reaching base to be driven in himself.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Adam Wainwright remains one of the best starting pitchers in the game, but notice his strikeout rate dipped under 20% last year. He didn't generate as many empty swings last year, induced fewer ground balls but continued to avoid walks. He's still really good, but his upside isn't quite what it was in recent year. Having said that, he's still backed by an excellent offense and can carry daily teams when the matchup is right.

Lance Lynn is an innings horse who can pitch deep into games and receive decisions. He misses some bats, has a decent but not great ground ball rate and is average-ish in the walk department. He's not the sexiest pitching option, but he's very good. The most promising development from last year was improvement against left-handed batters that resulted in a passable .314 wOBA allowed to them. Lynn will be in play at DraftKings and FanDuel.

John Lackey bounced back from missing the entire 2012 season by posting solid numbers the last two years. He fills up the strike zone, can miss bats at an average rate and his ground ball rate hovers around 45%. He wasn't as good with the Cardinals after being dealt there as he was with the Red Sox, but he looks the part of a solid starting pitching option. More like an SP2 on DraftKings than an SP1, and a slightly better option on FanDuel since he and the Cardinals will be favored frequently and he isn't a huge strikeout pitcher. That said, his swinging strike rate of 11.1% with the Cardinals indicates he should tally more strikeouts this year. Monitor his swinging strike rate and strikeout rate early in the year.

Michael Wacha is coming off an injury shortened but brilliant season. Some good fortune on fly balls not finding the seats artificially reduced his ERA a bit, but he should settle in as a low- to mid-3's ERA pitcher with healthy strikeout totals. His 21.0% K beat the league average of 20.4% and his swinging strike rate supports that. Wacha does a good job of avoiding walks, but he doesn't do as good of a job of keeping the ball on the ground as his rotation mates. His low-ish ground ball rate means you should keep tabs on what ballpark he's pitching in before deciding on whether or not to use him. He's a strong play at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Stock Watch

Up- Carlos Martinez

I gushed about Martinez above. He can be a stud. Thoughts of a burgeoning ace should be dancing through the mind of daily gamers. When you can miss bats like Martinez can with his fourseam fastball, sinker, changeup and slider, you earn a stock up arrow.

Down- Yadier Molina

I'm not expecting a cliff season, but like I said above, he's old enough some skills erosion can be expected. Still, in terms of stock down players highlighted in the team previews, Molina is the best player of the bunch and the product of limited options to choose from. Feel free to use Molina regularly.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

The lineup has length and talent. Literally everyone in the lineup can have daily baseball option. Stacking options will be directly related to manager Mike Matheny's willingness to shuffle his order up based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. If Molina, Peralta and Holliday hit back-to-back-to-back in the 2-through-4 spots or the 3-through-5 spots in the order, that's a nifty little mini-stack in the right ballpark.

The rotation has a staff ace in Waino, and four other usable options. It also could have an emerging star in Martinez. There isn't a day during the season that daily gamers should be ignoring the Cardinals rotation. That's not to say the Cardinals hurlers are an auto-start, no one is, but they're talented enough pitchers to see who they are facing and determine whether the price is right to use them.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports