If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 7 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.
DraftKings
Quarterback
The ranked quarterback by Cafe Value,
Ryan Fitzpatrick, could certainly have game flow working in his favor. The Patriots are the biggest favorites of the week, and the onus will fall on Fitz to air it out if oddsmakers pegged this game correctly. Volume can be his friend and help make up for the likely turnover or two he'll be responsible for once placed in predictable passing situations.
Of the other quarterbacks,
Cam Newton and Brian Hoyer stand out as options I'll gladly use. Cam is a one-man show, and the pace of the game should play into his hands. Both the Panthers and Eagles run an above average number of plays per game, and the more offensive plays, the more chances for Cam to score. The Eagles are a formidable defense, but Newton's ability to pile up points with his arm and his legs makes him an enticing option. The Panthers' team total of 25 points is also an eye catcher.As for Hoyer, he's been excellent this year. The Dolphins were a stale defense that totaled just one sack prior to the canning of Joe Philbin entering their bye week. They came out of the bye on fire, and the talent on that side of the ball showed up for the first time this year. I'm not willing to totally overlook their slow start, and they're not likely to maintain last week's pace, but their true talent level probably falls somewhere in the middle. With stud wide out DeAndre Hopkins to air it out to as well as solid pass-catching back Arian Foster as a safety valve, Hoyer makes for a solid source of salary relief from a player who projects to flirt with 20 fantasy points.
Running Back
This group is almost a who's who of stud runners for this wee. Devonta Freeman has been a monster this year, and even with a price hike, he falls short of the $8,000 threshold and brings a multi-faceted skill-set to the table. The Titans haven't been the most fantasy-friendly matchups for running backs this year, but that's unlikely to remain the case with them surrendering 4.7 yards per carry. Freeman is a stud and should be one of the highest owned options at running back this week.
The Muscle Ham ... err ... I mean Doug Martin is having a hell of a walk year. He's rushed for 405 yards and three touchdowns while adding 11 receptions for 94 yards receiving. His rookie season in 2012 indicates there's some more receiving upside with him, and he's grossly underpriced for how good he's been this season. Chris Thompson and Theo Riddick showing up as top Cafe Value plays is the product of their low costs and the full point awarded for receptions. I'm not enamored with Thompson this week, but Riddick is a nifty choice. He leads running backs in receptions with 33 and targets with 42.
Saving the best for last, Todd Gurley is a must-own player in all game types. His price is a joke, and 150 yards rushing are well within reach. No, that's not hyperbole. In his last two games, he's totaled 305 yards rushing, and he's yet to face a run defense as soft as the Browns. There are opportunities to be contrarian, and opportunities to be dumb. Fading Gurley is the latter.
Wide Receiver
Nate Washington is the min salary, but he's little more than a punt, and the other four highlighted wide receivers offer far more upside with tasty salaries. The most expensive, and likely most popular highlighted player is John Brown. He erupted for 196 yards receiving on 10 grabs in Week 6, and he has a plus matchup against an incredibly giving Ravens' secondary. I am really digging his teammate, Michael Floyd, as a pivot. Floyd's production has increased after the first few weeks (while he was nursing a hand injury), but he's still third in the receiving pecking order. He is, however, a big target who provides Carson Palmer a nice red-zone target.
Willie Snead leads the Saints in receiving yards this year and he's been a popular target for Drew Brees. With the Saints serving as an underdog to the high-powered Colts offense, game flow should work in his favor. I like the odds of him having plenty of fantasy point scoring opportunities. One of the most pleasant surprises this week when scanning Thursday night ownership rates was seeing Michael Crabtree owned on just 3.4% of FanDuel Mini Dive rosters. The former 49er has been a popular target of Derek Carr, and this contest has the potential to be a shootout.
Tight End
Benjamin Watson's cost is alluring, especially in light of his big performance against the Falcons. That said, his monster performance flies in stark contrast to what he's produced in any other contest this year. A single bullet or a couple bullets in GPPs are fine, but don't over do things. The other two tight ends who I'll be rostering from this group of five are Delanie Walker and Antonio Gates. That, of course, assuming Gates is healthy. Gates hasn't practiced this week, and it's not clear how much of that is a product of him nursing an injury and how much of that's a product of him being a grey beard and the club opting to keep him fresh. He's the chalk at the position if he plays, as no one has been more giving to tight ends than the Raiders, and Gates has been great in his two games played. Turning attention to Walker, he's averaging over seven targets per game and 61 yards receiving per contest. He's an integral part of the Titans' passing attack, and Zach Mettenberger isn't afraid to wing it, so I'm not concerned about the absence of Marcus Mariota.
Defense
The Rams are my favorite defense this week, and I went in depth discussing them (as well as four of the other highlighted defenses) in this week's entry of The Blitz. To quickly sum things up, the Rams have played very well this year and faced some of the best offenses in the league (two in the top five in scoring and a third in the top 10). They've generated sacs and turnovers and face a Browns squad that's struggled to take care of the football and struggled to keep Josh McCown upright. The Rams will be in 80% of my DraftKings rosters.
The Redskins are home favorites in a game with a low over/under total against an erratic rookie quarterback, so they pass the sniff test. The Steelers are tasked with shutting down a stale Chiefs offense that's without their best player, Jamaal Charles, and could be without Jeremy Maclin. Game-manager Alex Smith isn't the type of quarterback who can carry the burden of being a one-man show. I'll avoid the shootout in Indianapolis and pass on the Colts, but the Dolphins came out of their bye week fired up. The Phins have talent on that side of the ball, and they're home favorites. They're worth a bullet or two in GPPs if you're looking to pivot off of the Rams.
FanDuel
Quarterback
I won't rehash the merit for using Newton and Hoyer since I dissected both above, and instead I'll move on to the other three remaining quarterbacks.
Derek Carr's production has improved across the board this season, and the duo of
Amari Cooper and Crabtree gives him pass catchers he didn't have in his rookie season. The Chargers haven't proven to be the most giving defense to opposing quarterbacks from a fantasy scoring perspective, but there's potential this game turns into a shootout. I'm not crazy about Carr, but he's a defensible pic. I am, however, crazy about both
Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck. Rivers' ownership in the Thursday night DFS contests trailed only Carson Palmer, and he's going to be incredibly popular this week (at least as long as Gates and Keenan Allen are healthy enough to play). Rivers leads the league in passing yards and attempts, and he's completing 70.0% of his passes while adding 12 touchdown tosses. He's been elite this year, and the below average Raiders pass defense is unlikely to slow him down. Luck is my favorite GPP pivot off of Palmer. The Saints have yielded the second most FanDuel fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, per Pro-Football Reference, and Luck looked just fine airing it out 50 times in Week 6. The pass-happy Colts are tied for the second highest team over/under total this week, so that's yet another check in the pros column for paying up for Luck.Running Back
Gurley is a bit more expensive on FanDuel than on DraftKings, but as is the case on DraftKings, he's a must play, in my opinion. The two fresh faces in the Cafe Value table for FanDuel are
Le'Veon Bell and
Arian Foster. I'm slightly surprised that this duo of pass-catching, do-it-all backs rank higher using Cafe Value at FanDuel, where a half point is awarded for receptions as opposed to a full point, but that's largely the product of the smaller gap in pricing between the elite backs and the value picks. The Chiefs held Adrian Peterson in check last week, but Bell is a more well-rounded back. He's a viable pivot of off Freeman in GPPs, but there's no reason to get cute in cash games. Foster's paltry 2.3 yards per carry isn't impressive, but he's averaging over 20 touches a game, including just under six receptions per contest (5.7 receptions per game). The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in FanDuel fantasy points allowed per game, so Foster's volume of work creates quite a bit of upside for the veteran back.Wide Receiver
The only carryover from the DraftKings table is Brown.
DeAndre Hopkins has seen his price rise above the $9,000 mark, but he's been a beast this year and leads the league in targets and receiving yards while ranking second in receptions. He's worth ponying up for, and he should be a cash games staple while netting plenty of GPP ownership as well.
Larry Fitzgerald has turned back the clock, but his price hasn't caught up to his elite production. He's tied for the league lead in touchdown grabs, Despite ranking just tied for 16th in targets, he's been super efficient cracking the top five in receiving yards and receptions. The Ravens are big road underdogs against Fitz and the Cardinals, and game flow should dictate a heavy dose of Joe Flacco dropping back to huck the pigskin. Steve Smith is far and away the number-one option in the passing game for the Ravens. He's been targeted a minimum of seven times in all five games he's played this year, reached double digits in targets in three games, and bested 135 yards receiving in each game he's netted double-digit targets. The Jets are the biggest underdogs this week, and that means the Amish Rifle is likely to have a heavy workload airing it out. Brandon Marshall is the number-one receiver for the Jets, but Eric Decker has been a very good number-two receiver. Decker has snagged a touchdown grab in all four games he's played this year, and he's caught four or more passes in his last three games. He presents a rock solid floor/ceiling combo at a major value price point.Tight End
Three tight ends are fresh faces. The first is
Greg Olsen. The cupboards are bare in the passing attack for
Cam Newton, and Olsen is far and away his best pass catcher. That facts not lost on Newton. Olsen leads the team in receptions (24), targets (45), receiving yards (374) and is tied for the team lead in touchdown grabs (three). The second leading receiver, Ted Ginn Jr., is way behind him in receptions (13) and targets (29). The Eagles have been stingy against tight ends, but Olsen's volume of work should alleviate any concerns about the matchup. He's a great pivot off of a healthy Gates, and he'll absorb a bunch of Gates' ownership if the Chargers' tight end misses this week's contest.
Jason Witten and Travis Kelce are talented tight ends working in sputtering offenses. Witten's best game of the year was against the Giants in Week 1, but that was with Tony Romo under center. He'll get plenty of targets and reel in a few passes, but the Cowboys offense doesn't project to do much scoring and Witten's ceiling is low. Kelce's outlook is similar to that of Witten, however, Kelce is a better athlete and capable of turning a short pass into a big play after the catch. Furthermore, the matchup is great for Kelce. The Steelers have allowed the second most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends. Oddly, my preference is for Maclin to play since it will take some heat of of Kelce. If Maclin's out, Kelce will be the only explosive player the Steelers need to concern themselves with. The floor is low, but the ceiling is high for Kelce. That's the recipe for a strong GPP pick.Defense
The tighter pricing between defenses at FanDuel doesn't make the Rams as great of a value as they are on DraftKings, but they remain my favorite defensive unit. The only defense I won't nab shares of from this group is the Buccaneers, but they certainly have merit for usage when factoring in their price and Kirk Cousins' turnover tendencies. The Patriots are at home and the biggest betting favorites this week. That's usually the formula for defensive success, and if Ryan Fitzpatrick is forced to throw the ball early and often, I like the Pats' odds of forcing a turnover or two. Speaking of turnovers, the Vikings are facing the most turnover-prone offense in the league. The Lions have turned the ball over a whopping 18 times, more than double the league average. If bad Matthew Stafford resurfaces this week, the sky's the limit for the Vikings defense.
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