Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 15

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 15 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

I wouldn't advocate using Philip Rivers with the offense of the Chargers in shambles, but I like everyone else. The Saints pass defense (defense should probably go in quotes since they haven't defended anything) is the only one in the league that's allowed more than 30 pass touchdowns this season, and no team has allowed more DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. Enter Matthew Stafford, the veteran signal caller who has played better since the team's bye week. He stunk it up in his first start with Jim Bob Cooter as the offensive coordinator, but the bye week did wonders for the OC/QB combo. Tyrod Taylor brings a high ceiling to the table most weeks thanks to his ability to score points with his arm and with his legs. The emergence of Sammy Watkins in the passing attack bodes well for Taylor's ceiling, too. Alex Smith is still a game manager, but at least he's wisely using his number-one receiver, Jeremy Maclin. Smith's 233.4 yards passing per game and 15 touchdowns passes aren't eye catchers for the right reason, but he's thrown just four interceptions, and he's an underrated runner averaging 28.2 yards per game and two touchdown rushes. Blake Bortles is coming off a 250 yards passing, four touchdown (three passing and one rushing) effort last week. That type of performance is becoming commonplace for the second-year quarterback, and he ranks third in the league with 30 touchdown tosses on the year. With his full complement of talented pass catchers, Bortles' ceiling is immense.

Running Back

Tim Hightower played the role of feature back in wake of Mark Ingram's season-ending placement on IR, and he was leaned on for 28 carries. The stout Buccaneers run defense held him to 85 yards, but he found pay dirt and even added a reception. The Lions' run defense isn't nearly as stout, and Hightower is dirt-cheap exposure to the Saints' juicy team over/under total of 27 points. The Chiefs defense has been excellent this season, and I simply can't advocate using any member of a Jimmy Clausen-led offense. Sorry, Javorius Allen. David Johnson has been a dual-threat back who can rack up points carrying the ball or as a pass catcher. Oddsmakers are projecting a high-scoring affair in Philadelphia, and Johnson is one of my favorite pieces of that contest.

Wide Receiver

This is mostly a low-ceiling group, but two wide receivers stand out to me. The first is Jeremy Maclin, and he isn't one of the low-ceiling guys. The Ravens have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers this season, and Maclin's accounted for targets on 40% of Alex Smith's passes the last three weeks. Volume + soft matchup + talented wide receiver = sky-high ceiling. The other player who I'm moderately intrigued by in this group is Stefon Diggs. This rookie's no longer the hot name he was after bursting onto the seen in his first four games active in Week 4 through Week 8. Since then, he's surpassed 60 yards receiving and five receptions in a game just one time, and he hasn't scored a touchdown in that time frame. His struggles will undoubtedly depress his ownership rate, but this is the same guy who averaged over 100 yards receiving per game with more than six receptions per game in his first four. The ceiling's still hiding within him, and his ceiling at a low-ownership rate makes him worth a bullet or two in GPPs.

Tight End

If Eric Ebron received steadier work in the passing attack, he'd be a nifty bargain choice against a Saints team allowing the most DraftKings fantasy points per game. Alas, Ebron has bested five targets just two times and hasn't done so since Week 10. Will Tye has quietly emerged as the number-two in the Giants passing attack. Over the last four weeks, Tye has bested 55 yards receiving or caught a touchdown in each game. The Panthers feature one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, but they rank merely in the middle of the pack in DraftKings fantasy points allowed per game to tight ends. The only other tight end I'd use in this group is Zach Miller. Over the last six weeks, he's caught five touchdowns. In the first game after Martellus Bennett landed on season-ending IR, Miller turned in a solid line of 5-85-1. The Bears lack offensive playmakers in the passing attack behind Alshon Jeffery, and Miller is arguably the number-two option for Jay Cutler to air it out to.

Defense

The last two defenses in the table above are units I can get behind, and I did get behind earlier in the week in The Blitz. The Texans have stumbled in back-to-back contests, but in four games from Week 8 through Week 12, they allowed just 35 points while forcing eight turnovers with 16 sacks. That's the type of big upside they have at a low cost, and they're facing a struggling offense in the Colts this week. The Vikings haven't been an elite defense this season, but they've been above average and they are nearly a touchdown favorite at home. The Bears hold a team over/under total south of 20, so game flow should provide the Vikings some sack and turnover chances in predictable passing situations for Jay Cutler.

FanDuel

Quarterback

Backup quarterbacks lead things off at the QB-minimum salary of $6,000. A.J. McCarron has an elite number-one receiver to throw to and is facing a bad 49ers defense, but it's his first NFL start and San Francisco is much better at home. Firing a single bullet in GPPs isn't crazy, but I'd prefer turn to T.J. Yates between the two. The Texans don't feature the backfield talent the Bengals do, and the Colts have allowed the 11th most DraftKings points per game to signal callers this season. Yates is a viable option on a couple GPP rosters. Russell Wilson was far and away the highest owned quarterback (23.7%) in the Thursday FanDuel Snap, and for good reason. Over the last four weeks, Wilson has tossed 16 touchdown passes and rushed for another while throwing zero interceptions. There's no reason to think the Browns will hold him in check, and not even a sizable spread scares me this week since the backfield is in shambles with Thomas Rawls out for the rest of the year.

Running Back

Latavius Murray cracks both lists, and while I didn't address him above, I'll do so here. I wouldn't use Murray. He's bested 60 yards rushing in just one of his last five games and has 100+ yards rushing in just two games this year. He's failed to score multiple touchdowns in any contests, and his floor isn't high enough to offset his mediocre ceiling. Even with only half a point per reception on FanDuel, I'm loving David Johnson here as well. DeAngelo Williams is a fresh face in this group. The Broncos run defense has been elite this year, but Williams has proven to be matchup proof. His salary isn't a bargain, but it's not a cap crippler either, and he has a high floor and high ceiling that makes him appealing in cash games and GPPs.

Wide Receiver

No thanks on Travis Benjamin versus the Legion of Boom, but otherwise, I love this group. Jarvis Landry didn't practice on Thursday, but there's a decent chance that was a maintenance day for a second-year player who's a little banged up. He's the number-one receiver for the Dolphins, and while his yards per reception isn't impressive, it's hard to argue with roughly seven receptions per game. He's also capable of reaching the painted part of the field with five touchdowns (one rushing and four receiving). In analyzing Stafford, I pointed out how putrid the pass defense of the Saints is. It stands to reason that if the Saints can't stop the pass, Stafford's number-one receiver is in a great spot to succeed. Calvin Johnson is primed to feast on a secondary that ranks 29th defending number-one receivers, per Football Outsiders. FInally, Larry Fitzgerald is the number-one receiver in the highly-efficient and awesome passing attack of the Cardinals. He's have a great season in which he ranks among the league leaders in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown grabs, and the Eagles are a great matchup for him to further pad his stats in. Philadelphia ranks 26th defending number-one receivers, according to Football Outsiders, and they've allowed the third most FanDuel points per game to receivers.

Tight End

The tighter pricing at FanDuel results in a who's who of tight ends in this group. Travis Kelce has been quiet in plus matchups the last two weeks, and he has a tough one this week, so pass on him. Gary Barnidge and the Browns will have their work cut out for them in Seattle this week, but the team more than Barnidge. The Seahawks have allowed the ninth most FanDuel points per game to tight ends and the volume could be there with the Browns likely in the hole early. Delanie Walker has been awesome this season, but the Patriots do a great job of taking a team's best offensive player out of the game, and that is Walker on the Titans. Greg Olsen is trending in the right direction to play this weekend, and he should feast on a Giants squad allowing the third most fantasy points per game to tight ends this year. He's Cam Newton's top target, and the sky's the limit for Olsen. Finally, Jordan Reed is the top pass-catching option for the Redskins, and Kirk Cousins plays much better at home than on the road. As Jason noted earlier in the week, the Bills have slipped up defending tight ends of late, too.

Defense

This is a studly group of defense, and the only one I won't use is the Colts. Instead of offering a cliff notes version of reasons for using the other four defenses, let me direct you to this week's The Blitz. In the linked article, I discuss the other four defenses in depth.