Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 16

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 16 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

Alex Smith's ceiling isn't high, but he's a high floor, near minimum salary player who's playing a Browns squad that's allowed the sixth most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. There's nothing wrong with a high-floor guy like Smith, but I'd much prefer Ryan Fitzpatrick for just $100 more. Fitz is actually one of my favorite GPP swerves despite a tough-ish matchup with the Patriots. The first time he played New England he passed for 295 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 29 yards, though, he lost most of his fantasy scoring generated by his legs with a fumble lost. Tyrod Taylor is facing a decent Cowboys defense, but a defense that Football Outsiders ranks 31st defending number-one receivers. Considering how well he and Sammy Watkins are playing together lately and factoring in his ability to score with his legs, I'm more bullish than most on Taylor's stock this week. Blake Bortles should be a popular play this week and for good reason. The Saints have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks, and Bortles ranks seventh in passing yards (3,821) and fifth in touchdown passes (31). There's little reason to think he'll disappoint against New Orleans.

Running Back

Two of my favorite backs for this week, and not simply bargain backs, crack the top five. David Johnson's price was raised $100 after his monstrous effort on Sunday Night Football. There isn't any analysis necessary with him, he's a burgeoning stud and a cash games must. He's also a great play in GPPs. DeAngelo Williams has done more than fill in admirably for Le'Veon Bell, he's been an upper-tier back in the high-octane offense of the Steelers. In his eight starts, Williams is averaging 118.37 yards from scrimmage per game with nine rushing touchdowns and 27 receptions. He's matchup proof, and even though the Ravens have a stout run defense, he's a reliable source of high-end fantasy scoring week in and week out. Frank Gore is finally showing his age, but he should touch the ball 15-20 times against a Dolphins defense that's allowed the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year. At just $4,000, that's a viable back in all game types.

Wide Receiver

Increased opportunities will certainly be there for Rueben Randle and Dwayne Harris to net more targets with Odell Beckham Jr.'s suspension officially upheld, and either is an okay single bullet in a GPP, but there's another pass catcher on the Giants I like better who is featured below. Stefon Diggs was in this column last week and delivered a 3-55-2 line on four targets. He's an electric player, and with the Giants yielding the second most DraftKings points per game to receivers, I'll happily go back to the well and use him on a few GPP rosters.

Tight End

Zach Miller's been a regular in this column of late, and he delivered last week with a passable six receptions on six targets for 57 yards. In two weeks as the top tight end for the Bears, he's tallied 11 receptions on 12 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. His price hasn't caught up to his production and new role for the Bears. After squandering back-to-back soft matchups, Travis Kelce caught six passes for 73 yards last week against a Ravens defense that's been tough on tight ends this year. Kelce's a maddening player to use because his talent level is elite at the position, but he's frequently under utilized in the passing attack. The Browns, like the Ravens last week, are tough on tight ends, but Kelce's defensible in GPPs due to his non-prohibitive salary and his talent level. I alluded to liking a member of the Giants passing attack when discussing a couple of receivers above, and that member if Will Tye. He's cheap, and since Week 10, he's caught 24 passes for 273 yards and two touchdown grabs. Those touchdown grabs have come in back-to-back games. He's a punt with a bit of upside in the absence of OBJ.

Defense

Brian Hoyer has been cleared to practice for the Texans, but if he's not cleared to play and the Texans are led by Brandon Weeden, the Titans are a nifty bare minimum salary defensive option. They can get after the quarterback, and Weeden's obviously a well-below average quarterback. I'm also a fan of the Vikings versus the OBJ-less Giants. The Vikings defense has been a tick above average in most marks this year, and the Giants lack playmakers with their star receiver suspended for the Week 16 contest. Finally, the Steelers will be facing a garbage quarterback. Whether that's Jimmy Clausen, Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallet, Elvis Grbac or Trent Dilfer is irrelevant, none are quality signal callers who can keep up with the Steelers white-hot offense. When Baltimore is stuck playing catch up, the men in yellow and black should lead to their top-10 totals in sacks and turnovers forced.

FanDuel

Quarterback

Just a few fresh faces here compared to the other top-five QBs. Matthew Stafford has played well since the Week 9 bye for the Lions. He has multiple touchdown passes in five of six games since the bye including four straight games. In his last four games, he's rattled off 12 touchdown passes to just 1 interception while averaging 264 passing yards per game. Teddy Bridgewater is coming off an impressive contest in which he tossed four touchdown passes and completed 17 of 20 passes for 231 yards. He also added a fifth score on the ground. This week, he faces a Giants defense that's allowed the second most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Back

My praise above for David Johnson and DeAngelo Williams remains true for them at FanDuel, too. The other back in this group I'd use in this group is Karlos Williams, though, I'd only use him in GPPs. The Cowboys have yielded the fifth most FanDuel points per game to backs this season, Williams is exceptionally cheap and his ceiling is high despite the near certain time share with Mike Gilleslee. Special-K reached the end zone in his first six games in the NFL, and he's ripping off a hearty 6.0 yards per carry. He's a big bruiser with some speed that can rip off a long run or pile up the tough yardage.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown joins David Johnson as must-use players in cash games. He's played like a man possessed when Ben Roethlisberger has been healthy this year, and he just torched the toughest pass defense in the league. The Ravens are at the other end of the spectrum, and his floor and upside are unmatched at any position. The Cardinals have a big over/under total, as the table above illustrates, and their starting three wide outs are all viable options. Michael Floyd has emerged as the most productive pass catcher of the talented trio down the stretch. In his last six games, Floyd has bested 100 yards four times and added a 70-yard performance in the mix for good measure. The Colts have allowed the third most FanDuel points per game, and their secondary is awful beyond Vontae Davis. Jarvis Landry remains the top receiver for the Dolphins, and he's capable of picking apart that soft secondary for the Colts. Finally, after a disappointing-ish effort for Jeremy Maclin last week -- at least relative to expectations -- now is the time to get him back in lineups. A bit of recency bias could suppress his ownership a tiny bit, but this is a guy who's received 40% of Alex Smith's targets in the last four games, and he's caught four touchdown passes in that stretch. Also, his per-game lows in that four game stretch are six receptions and 50 yards. He's locked in and a great play against a bad Browns pass defense.

Tight End

There are a trio of talented tight ends who didn't crack the DraftKings top-five Cafe Value plays. Greg Olsen remains the best pass-catching option for Carolina, and the Falcons are a giving defense that's allowed the fourth most FanDuel fantasy points to tight ends this year. If Drew Brees is healthy enough to play, I really dig Benjamin Watson as a GPP selection. He's facing the Jaguars, and opposing tight end Julius Thomas is likely to garner most of the attention in that contest since the Saints have been the most giving defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to tight ends this year. Watson has been targeted 23 times in his last two games and 40 times over the last four. He's turned his steady diet of targets into production, and he's working on a career year. It's also worth noting Drew Brees is much better at home, and that's obviously good news for his tight end. Delanie Walker doesn't care who's throwing him the football or how tough the defense is he's opposing, he's going to produce. That's been the story all year, and he caught two touchdown passes from Zach Mettenberger last week, one of which was a highlight-reel grab where he clowned the Patriots defense. He's bested 60 yards in five straight games and nine times overall this year. The floor and ceiling are both high relative to his peers, and that makes him a great option in all game types.

Defense

To say I love this group would be an understatement. I wrote about four of the featured defenses in this week's edition of The Blitz, and as opposed to rehashing why I like those defenses in a condensed explanation, I'd advise checking that out here.