Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 10

Elite Plays

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

Jeffery remains one of the biggest bargains, regardless of position, namely at DraftKings. Jeffery leads qualified receivers with a silly 123.0 receiving yards per game. And since he's returned from injury, he's played three games, totaling 42 targets, 28 receptions, 414 yards (138 yards per game) and a pair of touchdown grabs. Jay Cutler has had tunnel vision for his number-one receiver, and defenses haven't an answer for the South Carolina product. The Rams are a strong pass defense, but it doesn't matter, Jeffery's combination of skills, production and price point are elite.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,600

Cash: 28-33%

GPP: 22-27%

DraftKings - $7,100

Cash: 35-40%

GPP: 25-30%

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

No team has awarded more fantasy points per game at DraftKings and FanDuel to receivers than the Chiefs. They're going to have their hands full with a pair of pass catchers from the Broncos, but I like DT more than Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders holds the touchdown edge with four scores compared to just one for Thomas, but DT bests him in targets (93 to 81), receptions (61 to 46) and receiving yards (745 to 639). Thomas' lack of touchdowns is really the only knock on him this season, as he's once again a home-run threat (10 receptions of 20+ yards) and the favorite receiver of Peyton Manning. The ceiling is extremely high for Thomas, and relative to the other studs at the position, DT is under priced.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,900

Cash: 10-15%

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings - $7,400

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

Value Plays

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

Diggs had his worst game as a pro in Week 9 against the tough Rams with three receptions on five targets for 42 yards. It's rather impressive that is the floor through five games for Diggs. Overall, Diggs is averaging nine targets, 5.6 receptions and 92.2 yards receiving per game. His yardage average ranks seventh among qualified receivers, and even merely an "average" performance from Diggs would easily pay off his bargain bin price. The beauty of last week's down game for Diggs is that it suppressed his price slightly. Diggs is an especially strong play at DraftKings since the Raiders are allowing the fourth most DraftKings points per game to receivers in 2015 compared to allowing just the 12th most FanDuel points per game to receivers.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,600

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 12-17%

DraftKings - $5,100

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 20-25%

Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders

Man, I'm not sure what Crabtree has to do to receive a price boost that separates him from the scrubs at the position. In Week 9, Crabtree turned in a 7-108-2 line against the Steelers, and he now leads the Raiders in targets, receptions and receiving touchdowns while Amari Cooper bests him in receiving yards. The Vikings are a considerably stiffer challenge for Crabtree than the Steelers were, but with 20 receptions, on 32 targets for 273 yards receiving and four touchdown grabs in his last three games, Crabtree's too locked in to pass up at his cost.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,400

Cash: 17-22%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings - $5,800

Cash: 17-22%

GPP: 17-22%

GPP Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

The Texans are coming off of their bye week, yet Hopkins still sits second among all pass catchers with 113 targets and fourth with 108.8 yards receiving per game. He's also had a nose for the end zone with a half-dozen touchdown grabs. Hopkins has been targeted a minimum of 11 times in every game this year, he's caught five or more passes in every game, and he's bested 90 yards receiving in six of eight contests with a 50 yard and a 53 yard receiving effort sprinkled in. Hopkins has been a model of consistency this year, and with the Texans serving as double-digit underdogs to the Bengals, game flow should work in the favor of another massive workload for Nuk.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,900

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $8,700

GPP: 5-15%

Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos

Just because I like DT more than Sanders doesn't preclude me from like Sanders a lot as well. A showdown with the most giving fantasy defense to wide receivers drives the value of both stud wide outs the Broncos up. Because Sanders is less than 100% healthy and seeing a lower number of targets than Thomas this year, he's more of a GPP play than his teammate. That said, he's averaging just a hair under 80 yards receiving per game (79.9 yards receiving per game) and following up his breakout 2014 campaign with another monster showing in 2015. The ceiling is high, and in GPPs, that's all we care about.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,800

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings - $7,300

GPP: 10-20%

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson visited Revis Island and he lives to tell the tale. In fact, it's quite the tale with the second-year wide out reeling in six receptions on 11 targets for 121 yards receiving. The Ravens secondary is, um, Revis free, to say the least. The Ravens have allowed the second most DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Second-year quarterback Blake Bortles has targeted his Allens, Robinson and Hurns, frequently in 2015, and Robinson leads the duo in receptions, targets and receiving yards while tying his fellow second-year wide out for the team lead with six touchdown grabs. Robinson is more expensive than Hurns on both sites, and I believe that will suppress Robinson's ownership a smidge, and that aids his GPP case.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,500

GPP: 7-12%

DraftKings - $6,700

GPP: 10-15%

Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles

I was on the bandwagon for Matthews early in the season, and he was more okay than good. Last week, he had his best game the season with nine receptions on 12 targets for 133 yards receiving and a touchdown. It was the second highest yardage output in a single game of his career. Matthews is a target machine with no less than seven in any game this season, and a matchup with the Dolphins is perfect for him stringing together back-to-back strong games. The Dolphins, according to Football Outsiders, rank dead last defending number-one receivers. His lack of gaudy full-season statistics should keep his ownership rate at a low-ish rate despite his outburst in Week 9.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,600

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings - $6,200

GPP: 5-10%