Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 12

Elite Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Hopkins embarrassed Darrelle Revis last week ripping him for 118 yards and a pair of scores on five grabs. His task of posting a big fantasy line gets exponentially easier this week against the Saints. The Saints rank 31st defending number-one wide receivers, per Football Outsiders (FO). They've been god awful defending the pass, and they've been torched for 293.1 yards passing per game and 28 touchdowns. Hopkins should have a hand in continuing the beatings on the Saints' secondary.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,400

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings - $9,100

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 20-25%

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Is there a more lethal duo in the game than Big Ben an Brown? The correct answer is no, there isn't a more lethal duo. His numbers are dragged down by a stretch of 235 yards receiving in four contests playing with Michael Vick and Landry Jones, but he STILL ranks second in the league averaging 114.1 yards receiving per game. Astute readers may not have done the math (I'll do that for you, hang in there), but they've already deduced Brown's posted jaw-dropping numbers with Roethlisberger. In the six games the duo has played together this year, Brown has averaged, I repeat averaged, 151 yards receiving per game with all five of his touchdown grabs. The Legion of Boom lacks the bite of previous years, and I'll gladly roll with Brown against them in all game types.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,000

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings - $8,700

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 15-20%

Value Plays

Travis Benjamin, Cleveland Browns

Benjamin is a cheap wide receiver who I expect to be overlooked. Two of his three 100+ yard receiving contests came with Johnny Manziel starting, but if you dig into the numbers, Benjamin was very good working with Josh McCown, too. McCown targeted Benjamin at least 10 times in four of six games the two played together. In the first showdown with the Ravens, McCown threw 12 passes in Benjamin's direction and he totaled six receptions for 83 yards. The matchup remains juicy, and the Ravens have allowed the second most DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy points per game to receivers in 2015.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,900

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings - $5,300

Cash: 0-7%

GPP: 0-5%

Nate Washington, Houston Texans

While DeAndre Hopkins will get almost all of the love from gamers using Brian Hoyer or merely picking on the Saints laughably bad pass defense, Washington warrants some love as well. Washington ranks second on the Texans in targets (61), receiving yards (456) and touchdown receptions (three). Washington has been targeted at least five times in all of the games he was healthy enough to finish, and he's bested 100 yards receiving twice in seven full games. His averages for the year are 57.0 yards receiving per game and 3.8 receptions. If he merely hits his averages, he's worth his minimal price tag on both sites, and his upside exceeds that against the bad Saints pass defense.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,300

Cash: 2-7%

GPP: 2-7%

DraftKings - $3,800

Cash: 3-8%

GPP: 3-8%

GPP Plays

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Fitz has been matchup proof this year, and he becomes tantalizing in GPPs with a plus matchup against the 49ers. The 49ers are allowing the ninth most DraftKings fantasy points per game and the seventh most FanDuel fantasy points per game. Fitz has epitomized being efficient this year. He ranks tied for eighth in the league in targets (98), but checks in fourth in receptions (73). He's also had a nose for the end zone with seven touchdown grabs (tied for fifth most). The veteran wide receiver has been a model of consistency catching five or more passes in nine of 10 games and besting 55 yards receiving in each of those contests. The lone concern with Fitz is that the Cardinals blow the doors off of the 49ers and take the air out of the ball late. That's a risk worth taking in GPPs since Fitz's ceiling is so high and he remains under priced.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,400

GPP: 12-17%

DraftKings - $7,400

GPP: 15-20%

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson didn't get enough love as a rookie last year, and he continues to fail to get the love he deserves in year two. He's a stud. He ranks 10th among qualified receivers with 87.1 yards receiving per game, seventh in targets (100) and tied for fifth in touchdown grabs (five). He's only caught half of his targets (50), but that's largely the product of Blake Bortles' inaccuracy as a passer. The volume offsets the shortcomings of his quarterback. As Jason pointed out in his piece earlier in the week, Brandon Flowers is expected to cover Robinson and Flowers has been dreadful in coverage. The Chargers have been burned by number-one receivers and rank 26th defending them.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,900

GPP: 7-12%

DraftKings - $7,300

GPP: 10-15%

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is what a worthwhile dice roll looks like. Vontae Davis lurks as a nightmare matchup for receivers, if he's healthy, but he left the last contest with a hamstring injury. If he's out, the Colts have no answer for Evans. Even if Davis plays, it's not a lock he'll shadow Evans since Vincent Jackson is also healthy. The Colts have allowed the fourth most DraftKings fantasy points per game and FanDuel fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Evans is the number-one receiver for the Buccaneers and one of the most targeted pass catchers in the game ranking tied for 12th with 92 targets this year. He's hauled in an inefficient 44 passes, but makes up for that to some degree with an average of 80.6 yards receiving per game, the 16th best mark in the league. I like his price considerably better at DraftKings than FanDuel, but his FanDuel price should further suppress his ownership there.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,100

GPP: 3-8%

DraftKings - $7,400

GPP: 7-12%

Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers

Picking on the Legion of Boom with Antonio Brown isn't that bold, and while it might seem like doing so with Bryant is, it probably isn't given how good the second-year receiver is. Anyone who argues Bryant is anything less than elite likely hasn't dug into Bryant's numbers. He ranks eighth in receiving yards per game (88.0) and is averaging a touchdown reception per game with five in five games. For his career (15 games), he's totaled 48 receptions for 989 yards receiving (20.6 yards receiving per play) and 13 touchdown grabs. That's number-one receiver production. He's a matchup nightmare at 6-foot-4 and 211 pounds and running like a gazelle. The Big Ben-Brown stack will be popular, and a Big Ben-Bryant stack makes for a high-ceiling swerve.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,700

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings - $5,600

GPP: 12-17%