Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 13

Elite Plays

Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

OBJ would make this article even if the Jets defense was fully healthy, but he moves up from the GPP ranks to the top play at the position with Darrelle Revis sitting out practice again and a long shot to play this week. No Revis would leave Beckham in a plus matchup with Antonio Cromartie or Buster Skrine. Pro Football Focus ranks Cromartie 99th at cornerback, and his chart shows a steep decline in his coverage grade after a solid two-game stretch in Week 6 and Week 7. The second-year receiver ranks tied for sixth in receptions (72), tied for eighth in targets (104), sixth in receiving yards per game (91.4) and tied for second in touchdowns (nine). He's on a real heater of late, too. Over the last four games, OBJ has been targeted 56 times, caught 30 passes, ripped off 481 yards yards receiving and reached the end zone five times. He's surpassed 100 yards receiving in each of those four games and was held out of the end zone in just one of the four. Go ahead and start your cash game lineups by adding OBJ to your roster, and fill in around him. And his sky-high ceiling makes him a great GPP play, even though his ownership will be through the roof.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,400

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 30-40%

DraftKings - $8,900

Cash: 45-55%

GPP: 35-45%

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Richard Sherman got the better of Brown shadowing him in Week 12, but Brown should get back on track this week. He and Ben Roethlisberger have been playing at an exceptionally high level together this year. Brown is averaging 9.71 receptions per game and 136.71 yards receiving per game with all five of his touchdown grabs with Big Ben under center. Volume of work hasn't been a problem for Brown either, as he's been targeted a minimum of 11 times in each game Roethlisberger has played. Brown should draw a healthy dose of Vontae Davis in coverage, which is a tough matchup, but it's not a guarantee he'll be shadowed by Davis. With that in mind, it's worth noting that the Colts are allowing the sixth most DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy points per game to receivers this season.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,000

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

DraftKings - $8,600

Cash: 30-40%

GPP: 20-30%

Value Plays

Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens

When Joe Flacco went down for the year, I assumed all of the pass catchers for the Ravens would become toxic with Matt Schaub under center. That didn't turn out to be the case. Schaub isn't an NFL caliber starter at this point in his career, but we've seen worse starting quarterback performances than his in Week 12. Most importantly, he demonstrated excellent rapport with Aiken. The receiver was targeted 10 times, twice as many targets as the next most targeted member of the Ravens. He turned the targets into six receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. In three games since Steve Smith Sr. was lost for the year, Aiken has totaled 32 targets, 18 receptions, 203 yards receiving and two touchdown grabs. He draws a favorable matchup with the Dolphins this week. The Dolphins rank dead last defending number-one receivers, according to Football Outsiders (FO). On DraftKings, I'd prefer turn to Danny Amendola for $100 less than Aiken, but Aiken's salary gap on FanDuel netted him a spot in the value section instead of the Patriots' receiver.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,100

Cash: 5-15%

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $4,800

Cash: 0-10%

GPP: 0-10%

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is on fire lately, and not coincidentally Baldwin is as well. Baldwin leads the Seahawks in receptions (50), receiving yards (684) and touchdown receptions (six) while ranking second in targets (57). The man he trailed in targets, Jimmy Graham, is out for the season. Baldwin's volume should get an uptick, and that should allow him to keep up his run of solid fantasy performances. Over the last three weeks, he's been targeted 24 times and turned those targets into 19 receptions for 339 yards receiving and four touchdowns. He's bested 100 yards and caught at least one touchdown in two of his last three games. His ownership will get a substantial boost this week, and he'll be one of the most popular bargain picks at the position.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,200

Cash: 20-30%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $3,800

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

GPP Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Coming off of torching Revis in Week 11, expectations were high for Hopkins against the lowly Saints pass defense and he laid an egg catching five passes for 36 yards receiving. It was easily his worst performance of his the season and the only game in which he didn't reach double digits in targets. The disappointing showing should take a bite out of his ownership, and the fact he's reached 100+ yards in just one of his last five games will do the same. Getting a stud like Hopkins at even a slightly reduced ownership rate is the recipe for a potential GPP game-changing pick. He's the most targeted player in the game and ranks within the top five in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown grabs. The Bills have gotten great play from their starting cornerbacks, but Hopkins has proven he's matchup proof as recently as Week 11 when he barbecued Revis. Also, the Bills were just devoured by Jeremy Maclin in Week 12. The matchup for Hopkins doesn't scare me, and it shouldn't scare you either.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,900

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $8,800

GPP: 15-25%

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

Injuries have been an issue for Jeffery this year, but that's essentially the only gripe anyone can have with his 2015 campaign. He ranks third in receiving yards per game with 100.8 and he has been targeted 11 or more times in five of six games. In each of the games he's been targeted double-digit times, he's bested 75 yards receiving and caught at least five passes. He's a model of consistency with a high floor, but the sky's also the limit for him. His upside is especially tantalizing this week in a home tilt against the 49ers. The 49ers are allowing the ninth most DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy points per game to receivers, and Football Outsiders ranks them 26th defending number-one receivers. Adding to Jeffery's appeal, Pro Football Focus suggests he should draw Kenneth Acker in coverage, and Acker ranks just 73rd at cornerback.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,700

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings - $6,900

GPP: 15-25%

Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders

Cooper is turning in a fantastic rookie season and ranks 17th with 77.4 receiving yards per game. He's surpassed 100 yards receiving in four contests, and one of those contests was a bounce-back game last week. Gamers were excited about Cooper facing the Lions in Week 11, and he was dreadful catching just one pass for four yards. As I said, he bounced back, though, and caught seven passes for 115 yards receiving against the Titans last week. He has an even better matchup this week against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are allowing the most DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy points per game to wide outs. I suspect teammate Michael Crabtree will cut into his ownership rate, and a big showing from undrafted rookie Seth Roberts could also cause some gamers to shy away from Cooper, and that's reflected in my ownership estimates below. Getting Cooper at anything under 30% ownership would be great, as his upside is immense this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,000

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings - $6,900

GPP: 15-20%

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers have no answers for defending receivers. They are allowing the second most DraftKings fantasy points per game and the fourth most FanDuel points per game to receivers this year. They were just torched by Doug Baldwin for 6-145-3, but he wasn't the only receiver who embarrassed them. Jermaine Kearse also added four receptions for 47 yards and a pair of scores. Allowing five touchdowns to wide receivers is a bad look. One week after basically ignoring Hilton in the passing game, Matt Hasselbeck targeted him 12 times and completed six passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns to the number-one wide out. Relying on Hasselbeck to continue to play at a high level is a GPP only move, but if he does, Hilton has a matchup that creates a high ceiling for him. As an added bonus, his price at DraftKings is very cap friendly.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,300

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $5,700

GPP: 5-15%