Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 14

Elite Plays

Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

Through his first 24 games in the NFL, OBJ is averaging 102.5 yards receiving and 7.0 receptions per game. Good lord, he's good. He's regressed a tiny bit from last year's insane rookie season, but not much, and he's on fire of late. He's riding a five-game streak of eclipsing 100 yards receiving and caught a touchdown in all but one of those games. For the season, he's averaging 96.2 yards receiving per game on 6.5 receptions per game, but during this five-game streak he's bumped those numbers up to 7.2 receptions and 126 yards receiving per game. He's also caught six touchdowns in that time span and volume hasn't been a problem with an average of 13.4 targets per contest. Remarkably, if Eli Manning had been a bit more accurate during that stretch Beckham's numbers would be even better. Yikes.

This week, he has a cushy matchup with the Dolphins. Miami ranks dead last defending number-one receivers, per Football Outsiders. With that in mind, it's probably not surprising that the Dolphins don't have a single starting cornerback who breaks Pro Football Focus's top 60 at the position. OBJ should have little trouble piling up fantasy points against the defense allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game at both DraftKings and FanDuel to receivers. He's worth paying up for in all game types.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,300

Cash: 30-40%

GPP: 20-30%

DraftKings - $9,100

Cash: 35-45%

GPP: 25-35%

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Picking between Brown and the number-one receiver he's opposing this week, A.J. Green, was difficult. Green killed the Steelers the first time these two teams met, and even with Adam Jones ruling himself out this week, the Bengals have better cornerbacks than the Steelers. Tyler Eifert is expected back this week, though, and I'm slightly concerned about him cutting into Green's upside given the tight end's nose for the end zone. Furthermore, Brown has the higher floor of the two wide receivers given his consistent output when Big Ben plays.

Speaking of Brown's statistical contributions when Roethlisberger plays, it's something to behold. When the two have played together this year, Brown's averaged 13.25 targets, 9.5 receptions and 134.5 yards receiving per game and scored a staggering seven touchdowns (Roethlisberger has played only eight games this season). Brown has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in six of the eight games Roethlisberger has played in, caught six or more passes in each of those games and scored at least one touchdown in five of the eight games. As I said, he's been a model of consistency playing with Roethlisberger. Oh, and one of the games Brown failed to reach the end zone with Big Ben quarterbacking, he blew up for 17 receptions for 284 yards receiving and added 22 yards rushing. The game features a juicy 50 point over/under total, and even with the Bengals favored, the Steelers carry a 23.5 point team over/under total. Use Brown in all game types this week, and don't be shy about pairing him with the honorable-mention receiver he nudged out for this second elite-receiver spot.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,300

Cash: 35-45%

GPP: 20-30

DraftKings - $8,900

Cash: 35-45%

GPP: 25-35%

Value Plays

Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs

It's been a streaky season for Maclin, but he's back in a groove again. From Week 3 through Week 5 he was the toast of daily fantasy land, but then he was in a multi-weak funk from Week 6 through Week 11 (the team did have their bye and Maclin missed a game with a concussion in that stretch) in which he caught just one touchdown pass and failed to eclipse 50 yards receiving in a single one of those four games. Someone must have gotten in Alex Smith's ear because he's been great the past two weeks.

Over the last two weeks, Maclin's been targeted 21 times and caught 18 passes for 255 yards receiving and three scores. Smith threw just 52 passes in those two games, so Maclin's targets accounted for a whopping 40.4% of Smith's passes. The two are locked in at the moment. The 27-year-old receiver was held to just 29 yards receiving on three receptions and six targets in Week 11 against the Chargers, and perhaps that will drive his ownership down a bit, but I have confidence in him playing more like the receiver we've seen the past two weeks than the guy who was a non-factor in the Week 11 blowout win. The Chargers rank as one of the tougher defenses for wide receivers to score fantasy points against, so Maclin isn't without some risk. That said, Football Outsiders ranks the Bolts just 24th defending number-one receivers, and Maclin is on fire, so I'm comfortable using him in all game types.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,900

Cash: 10-20%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings - $5,500

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 15-25%

Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers

When you think flashy and sexy numbers at wide receiver, you don't think Boldin. His season-long totals haven't been good this year, but he's played well since Blaine Gabbert has taken over the starting duties at quarterback for the 49ers. Boldin missed Gabbert's first start prior to the team's bye, but he's played in the three starts since and been heavily involved in the passing attack. Over the last three weeks, Boldin's targets have increased from seven in Week 11 to 11 in Week 12 and 13 last week. In all, that's 31 targets in three games, or just over 10 targets a game. His steady inclusion in the passing attack has resulted in 18 receptions for 223 yards receiving, good for averages of six receptions and 74.3 yards receiving per game.

The two weren't on the same page last week. Boldin hauled in just five of his 13 targets and totaled only 37 yards receiving, but I'm taking the glass half full view and am hung up on his 13 targets in Week 13. The Browns make for a great matchup for the veteran wide receiver this week. They're allowing the sixth most DraftKings fantasy points per game and the seventh most FanDuel fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Boldin isn't a high-ceiling choice who will single handily carry teams, but he's a great source of salary relief and a nifty glue guy.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,900

Cash: 0-10%

GPP: 0-10%

DraftKings - $4,000

Cash: 0-10%

GPP: 0-10%

GPP Plays

Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills

Now that he's healthy and playing with a competent passer, Watkins is starting to showcase why the Bills fell in love with him and spent a king's ransom to move up in the 2014 NFL Draft to select him. Don't confuse that as a defense of the trade, but he flashing number-one wide receiver ability. Since the Bills bye week and the return of Tyrod Taylor, Watkins has averages of 7.0 targets, 4.6 receptions and 97.6 yards receiving per game with four touchdown snags. He's surpassed 100 yards receiving in three of those five games including back-to-back contests in Week 12 and Week 13. Over the last two weeks, he's reeled in nine of 14 targets for 267 yards receiving and three touchdowns. He's in quite the groove and has a plus matchup with the Eagles in Philadelphia this week.

The Eagles are allowing the third most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers in 2015. Byron Maxwell has been anything but the lock-down cornerback they thought they were locking into their defense when they ponied up for his services in free agency during the offseason. As Jason pointed out earlier in the week, Pro Football Focus projects Eric Rowe to cover Watkins, and that's a great matchup for the second-year wide receiver. The Eagles have especially struggled with number-one receivers, and Football Outsiders ranks tPhiladelphia just 29th defending them. Because wide receiver is loaded with talent, I expect Watkins to slip through the cracks a bit and have a slightly lower ownership rate than he should, and that makes him a strong GPP play with a big ceiling.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,200

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings - $6,100

GPP: 10-20%

Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars

Things shape up tremendously for Hurns to be an under owned asset at wide receivers this week, and that's just ducky for GPPs. Allen Robinson is coming off of a head-turning 10-153-3 line against the Titans in Week 13. A-Rob will net some serious ownership because he's talented but also due to the lemming ownership boost that always comes from certain gamers chasing the previous week's points. That's not meant as a knock on Robinson, as he's a strong play in his own right, but it draws the spotlight off of Hurns and makes him a contrarian stack partner with Blake Bortles or a strong stand-alone pivot off of his more popular teammate.

Hurns was out last week while dealing with a concussion, but he's since passed through the NFL's concussion protocol and is on track to return for a finger-licking-good matchup with the Colts. The Colts have allowed the second most DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year, and with A-Rob playing at such a high level, it's reasonable to speculate that he'll garner the bulk of the attention from the Colts' top corner, Vontae Davis. Lined up behind Davis at cornerback for the Colts is a dumpster fire of full diapers, or merely a collection of terrible corners. Either way, it's no one capable of checking Hurns. The second-year undrafted wide receiver has caught seven touchdowns this season and made big plays averaging 15.8 yards per reception. In the pass-happy attack for the Jaguars, Hurns has tallied six or more targets in eight of 11 games played and totaled at least 60 yards receiving in seven games. I expect Hurns ownership to be low, but his ceiling is far from low. Fire him up in some GPPs.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,600

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings - $5,500

GPP: 5-10%