Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 16

Elite Plays

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

How good has Brown played with Ben Roethlisberger? He's been from another planet. In 10 games playing together, Brown's averaged 13.4 targets, 9.9 receptions, 134.9 yards receiving per game with just a hair under a touchdown grab per game with nine in 10 games. In those 10 games, Brown has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in seven. His combination of floor and ceiling makes him the best receiving in the league.

Now, after torching the NFL's best pass defense for 16-189-2 last week, he faces one of the worst. The AFC North division rival Ravens have allowed the fourth most DraftKings points per game and most FanDuel points per game. No team has allowed more touchdown grabs to receivers than the 25 Baltimore has coughed up. Pro Football Focus (PFF) indicates Brown should draw Jimmy Smith in coverage, and they rank Smith 80th at cornerback. Good luck slowing Brown down, it's not happening. Brown should be one of the first players penciled into cash game rosters and he's a great big-ticket item in GPPs, too.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,300

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 30-40%

DraftKings - $9,300

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 30-40%

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

Baldwin's heater of late is remarkable. It's as if someone tapped Russell Wilson on the shoulder during the Week 9 bye and suggested using Baldwin more. Since that bye, Baldwin has caught at least one touchdown in five of six games and has caught multiple touchdowns in four straight games. He's not just touchdown dependent, either. During that six-game stretch, he's averaging 7.67 targets, 5.67 receptions and 93.33 receiving yards per game.

Football Outsiders ranks the Rams third defending number-one receivers, which would provide reason for pause before auto-filling Baldwin into rosters. Not so fast,though, Baldwin plays in the slot regularly and PFF's matchup grades indicates he should draw Lamarcus Joyner in coverage. Joyner ranks 65th at cornerback, per PFF, which is a far cry from Janoris Jenkins, who ranks 21st, and Trumaine Johnson, who ranks fourth. Wilson's penchant for getting Baldwin looks in the red zone elevates both Baldwin's floor and ceiling, as even an otherwise quiet day from a yardage perspective can be saved by a touchdown grab or two. Last week is a perfect example of that. Baldwin's four receptions for 45 yards would have been a disappointment, but he reached pay dirt twice. FanDuel has stiffened up the pricing on Baldwin, and he's not a must use option there, but he remains a strong option in all game types. On DraftKings, he remains under priced and a player who should be locked into cash games. He's also a strong play in GPPs at DraftKings.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,700

Cash: 20-30%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $6,700

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

Value Plays

Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens

Aiken has done more than play admirably as the number-one receiver for the Ravens in relief of Steve Smith Sr., he's actually flourished. His breakout is even more remarkable when considering he hasn't slowed down playing with slop such as Matt Schaub and Jimmy Clausen at quarterback. Aiken's tallied at least 50 yards receiving in nine of 14 games, and he's bested 70 yards receiving in seven contests. Since the Week 9 bye for the Ravens, Aiken is averaging 10.33 targets, 6.17 receptions and 78.17 receiving yards per game with three touchdowns. He's caught a touchdown in three of his last five games and he's caught at least five passes in seven straight games.

This week he'll look to build on a career-best game in Week 15 in which he totaled 128 yards receiving and a touchdown on eight grabs against the Chiefs. He has a dreamy matchup with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has allowed the most DraftKings points per game and second most FanDuel points per game to receivers. With the Ravens checking in as a double-digit point underdog, game flow's going to net Aiken a steady diet of targets while Baltimore plays catch up. I feel extremely comfortable trotting out Aiken in both cash games and GPPs.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,600

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings - $5,400

Cash: 10-20%

GPP: 10-15%

Travis Benjamin, Cleveland Browns

Benjamin is knocking on the door of a 1,000 yard receiving campaign at just 107 yards short with two games left. He's more than tripled his receiving yards per game in a full-blown breakout in his walk year. Benjamin's a burner who's averaging a healthy 14.6 yards per reception. The 25-year-old receiver has two 100-plus yard receiving efforts playing with Johnny Manziel this year. His speed plays well with Manziel's ability to keep plays alive when they break down. Three of Benjamin's five touchdown receptions were thrown by Manziel, too.

Benjamin has three straight ugly efforts, and that's suppressed his salary a great deal. Seriously, how often can you get a receiver pacing for 1,000 yards at his salary on FanDuel and DraftKings (the correct answer is not often). The former Hurricane should breathe a sigh of relief facing the Chiefs after facing the Legion of Boom last week. Kansas City, despite their greatness on defense this year, has allowed the fifth most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers. Because Benjamin is somewhat big-play dependent and relying on the still green Johnny Football, he's more of a GPP play, but he's one of my favorites.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,400

Cash: 0-7%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings - $4,300

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 2-7%

GPP Plays

John Brown, Arizona Cardinals

What better time to hop on a player than after they drop a few passes that would have resulted in touchdowns in a prime time game? The better time is when that happens and that player's running back goes ham and bests 200 yards from scrimmage while scoring three touchdowns. Brown is still tied to MVP candidate Carson Palmer, and even in a game that could have been much better than it was, Brown reached the end zone and led the Cardinals in targets with nine. He can stretch the field and not even a case of butter fingers dissuaded Palmer from airing it out to the second-year receiver.

The Cardinals have a robust team over/under total of over 26 points. With Brown essentially serving as the number-three receiver for the Cardinals, it's worth noting that Football Outsiders ranks the Packers 21st defending "other" receivers (any non number-one or number-two receiver). Brown's ability to pop the top off of a defense makes him a threat to hit value on his salary at FanDuel and DraftKings with just one long touchdown grab, and his volume of work last week illustrates the upside is immense as well.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,400

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $5,300

GPP: 5-15%

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

Relying on a rookie receiver catching passes from Ryan Tannehill basically epitomizes embracing volatility, and that's what it's all about in GPPs. Concerning oneself with floor too much in GPPs isn't a recipe for taking one down. Parker's rounding into form as his rookie season comes to an end. Over the last four weeks, he's bested 60 yards receiving in a game three times and totaled at least 80 yards receiving twice. He's also caught two touchdowns. In that four-game time frame, he's averaging 6.5 targets, 3.25 receptions and 61.5 yards receiving per game. Matchups don't get much better than Parker's against the Colts this week. Indianapolis has allowed the third most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers. At his bargain bin salaries, there's plenty of upside for him to provide a positive ROI as well as valuable salary cap relief.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,000

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $4,100

GPP: 5-15%