Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 8

Elite Plays

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Brown disappeared with Michael Vick under center, but I think we know who's to blame for that. He reappeared last week turning in a very Brown-like effort of six receptions for 124 yards receiving with Landry Jones under center. The expectation is that Big Ben will be taking snaps this week, and all Brown did playing with Roethlisberger last year was lead the league in receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,698) while reeling in 13 touchdown grabs. I'd say that's pretty good. In the first three games this year, all Big Ben starts, Brown went for 9-133-1, 9-195-1 and 11-108-0. The duo is basically unstoppable, and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Bengals 29th defending number-one receivers, so consider this a plus matchup for him. The game is a pick 'em with a big over/under total (48), and there isn't anything I can find in Brown's profile I dislike this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,400

Cash: 22-27%

GPP: 18-23%

DraftKings - $7,800

Cash: 28-33%

GPP: 20-25%

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I do love the AFC North battle. And yes, I do believe it will be a shootout. Part of Andy Dalton's development this year has included a willingness to utilize more than Green in the passing attack, but don't worry, Green's been a-okay ranking tied for 12th with 88.5 yards per game receiving while catching 35 passes and three touchdowns. He's a matchup nightmare, and the Steelers have been giving to opposing wide receivers allowing the 12th most DraftKings points per game and the 13th most FanDuel points per game to them, per Pro-Football Reference. Furthermore, Pro Football Focus (PFF) projects Green to draw plenty of coverage from Antwon Blake, who is woefully bad in coverage, per their player grades. The prices of Brown and Green on FanDuel and DraftKings are affordable enough to grab both and root for a high-octane shootout.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,200

Cash: 12-17%

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings - $7,600

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 12-17%

Value Plays

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

Neither FanDuel nor DraftKings have gotten the memo that Diggs is the number-one wide receiver (and a good one) for the Vikings, at least their prices indicate that. No receiver played more snaps for the Vikings in Week 7 than Diggs, and he produced, eclipsing 100 yards for the second time in his first three NFL games played. Among qualified receivers, Diggs ranks third with 108 yards receiving per game. He's averaging over nine targets per game with 28 through three games, and he's pulled in 19 receptions including one touchdown. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner even incorporated Diggs into the running game with Diggs totaling one rush for nine yards in the last game. The Bears have been a soft defense against wideouts allowing the sixth most DraftKings points per game and the fifth most FanDuel points per game to them. Diggs won't be slipping through the cracks this week, and gamers will be all over him.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,700

Cash: 25-30%

GPP: 22-27%

DraftKings - $4,800

Cash: 28-33%

GPP: 23-28%

Nate Washington, Houston Texans

Our Cafe Value ranked him atop wide receivers on DraftKings last week, so kudos if you trusted out tools. He obviously exceeded even those expectations. The 32-year-old wide receiver has quietly played at a high level in his first year with the Texans. Injuries have cost him some time, but in the four games he's played from start to finish, he's received at least eight targets in each, cracking the double-digit threshold in two games and turning the double-digit targets into 100-plus yards receiving in each of those contests. Arian Foster is out for the year as a result of injury, and that puts the burden of carrying the offense on Brian Hoyer and the passing attack. With a likely uptick in pass attempts, the probable return of Cecil Shorts III isn't as concerning for Washington's production. Washington's volume of work is far greater than gamers should typically be able to expect from a player in Washington's salary range.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,400

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 2-7%

DraftKings - $3,600

Cash: 8-13%

GPP: 5-10%

GPP Plays

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

I nearly listed Jones in the elite section, but the spread (Falcons -7.5 points) is enough to provide reason for pause before paying for the most expensive receiver on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Jones has been a stud this year ranking second in receptions (58), targets (90) and receiving yards (730) and tied for sixth in touchdown grabs (five). PFF has him drawing coverage from below average corner Mike Jenkins, and Jonathan Banks isn't a lock-down corner either. The Bucs have been giving to wide receivers, and FO ranks them dead last defending number-one receivers. The sky's the limit for Jones, but if the Falcons race out to a big lead and it's not the result of Jones doing damage, there is some risk he fails to pay off his sizable salary.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,200

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings - $9,200

GPP: 12-17%

Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers

No team playing in the US this week has surrendered more fantasy points to wide receivers this year than the Ravens. With Antonio Gates' status for this weekend's contest up in the air, Allen might have one less target hog to compete with. That said, with Philip Rivers attempting more passes than any other quarterback this year, a return from Gates wouldn't sound the death knell for Allen's GPP value. Allen suffered through a sophomore slump last year, but he's rebounded and is playing at the highest level of his young career this season hauling in 62 receptions on 84 targets for 690 yards receiving and three scores. His reception total leads the league, and his target and yardage totals crack the top five in the league, too. His projected ownership rates below are with the anticipation that Gates will miss this week's game. If Gates is active, I'd knock about 5% off of his ownership rate projections.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,000

GPP: 25-30%

DraftKings - $7,700

GPP: 27-32%

Steve Smith Sr., Baltimore Ravens

Smith draws a tough matchup with the Chargers this week. The Chargers have been one of the stingiest defenses against wide receivers allowing the third fewest DraftKings fantasy points per game and the fourth fewest FanDuel fantasy points per game. Ideally, the tough draw will suppress his ownership, and as the ownership rates below suggest, that's my anticipation. I'm not scared off of him, though, the veteran has too much working in his favor. First, the Ravens are three point home favorites in a game with the biggest over/under total (50 points) of the week. The spread and over/under total are perfect for Smith to stay active from snap one through the final snap. And speaking of staying active, Joe Flacco should take care of that for Smith. The former Panther has missed a game, and he still ranks in the top 10 in targets (66) this year. He's been targeted a minimum of seven times in all six games he's played in this year, and in the three games he's reached double-digit targets, he's surpassed 130 yards receiving. Volume + game flow = DFS gold. It's a simple formula, really.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,700

GPP: 6-11%

DraftKings - $6,100

GPP: 8-13%

Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers

Bryant was wildly popular last week, and he delivered for those who invested in him by catching three passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. At his cost last week, he provided a positive ROI. With his price climbing a bit higher, namely on FanDuel, and Big Ben to Brown getting some love from the DFS community, I'd expect Bryant's ownership rates to take a hit this week. That's ideal for GPPs, and it makes a Big Ben/Bryant stack a great pivot off of Big Ben/Brown. According to PFF, Bryant is expected to draw the softer assignment against Dre Kirkpatrick as opposed to Pacman Jones, so that's a plus working in his favor. The freakishly athletic 6-foot-4 and 211 pound wide receiver has been a big-play machine in his young career. He's averaged nearly a touchdown per game with 11 touchdowns in 12 games played, and he's erupted for 20.9 yards per receptions on 35 grabs. A hyper-efficient receiver like Bryant doesn't need a ton of targets to turn in a game-changing fantasy scoring output, but the potential for an uptick in usage as a result of game flow is a plus. There will be plenty of excellent fantasy performances in the Bengals/Steelers game, and I suspect Bryant will throw his hat in the ring.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,200

GPP: 12-17%

DraftKings - $5,300

GPP: 15-20%