NHL Stacking to Win 3-1-16

The Chalk

The Bruins will be a very popular play tonight, but that shouldn't make you shy away from stacking them everywhere. This a mismatch on so many levels tonight, as a weary Flames team that has basically thrown in the towel on this season visits the Bruins at the TD Garden. For starters, Joni Ortio gets the nod for the Flames, which is great news for Bruins shooters. Ortio has an adjusted save percentage of 90.12% (via War On Ice) since Dec 1, one of the worst marks in the entire league. There's also a big special teams mismatch, as the Flames have the worst penalty killing unit in the NHL at 72.7%, and the Bruins have the #1 power play on home ice at 24.2%. Stempniak will be playing in his first game as a Bruin after being acquired from New Jersey at the trade deadline yesterday. Daily Faceoff has Stempniak skating on the top line with Bergeron and Marchand, and on the #2 power play unit. If you're playing cash games on either site, he is a lock at his price, start your lineup there and carry on. The Bruins second line of Krejci, Eriksson and Pastrnak is also a fantastic play tonight, along with Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug on defense.

It's tough to predict the ownership of this line tonight with such a large slate of games, and a prime time match up against their arch rivals from Pittsburgh. The Penguins played last night, so keep an eye on twitter for who will be in net for them, but Marc Andre Fleury is probably to play again tonight after a 6-0 shutout over Arizona last night. The Caps have the #1 power play in the NHL, and I expect them to have plenty of opportunities to connect tonight. Ovechkin is on a tear lately, averaging just under 8 FPPG on Draftkings over his last ten contests. The second line for Washington might actually be a better option tonight, as they should have much lower ownership. The trio of Kuznetsov, Burakovsky and Williams have combined for five goals over their last ten games. Penguins back up goalie Jeff Zatkoff has an atrociuos adjusted save percentage of 89.57% since Dec 1, so if he gets the call for Pittsburgh on the back to back, that gives a significant bump up to all Washington skaters.

Contrarian Corner

No one will accuse the Dallas Stars of not being able to pile up goals, but one thing they can be accused of, is their dead average defensive play. The addition is Kris Russell will help, although I think his talents are grossly over rated, but they haven't been able to keep the puck out of their net all season. They allow 2.84 goal per game, the 8th highest in the league, and have the 24th ranked penalty kill at 79.2%. Enter the red hot Nashville Predators, who host a Stars team playing their 4th game in six nights, third game in four nights and on a back to back as well. The popular play will be Filip Forsberg, with two hat tricks in his last three games, but the top line of Jarnkrok, Johansen, Neal, and defenseman Roman Josi will most likley fly under the radar tonight. Kari Lehtonen will get the call for the Stars tonight, and his adjusted save percentage of 90.85% since Dec 1. puts him in the same category as the aforementioned Zatkoff and Ortio, not good company to be in.

The first ever showdown of Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel takes place tonight in Buffalo. I expect both to have good games, but I like this top line in Buffalo a little more for a couple different reasons. First, their priced very reasonable on both sites, and Buffalo goalie Robin Lehner has been on fire lately. The Oilers also give up the 4th most goal per game on the road, and goalie Cam Talbot will see a lot of rubber tonight. The Sabres are 4-5-1 in their last ten games, looking a lot more confident under head coach Dan Bylsma. Rasmus Ristolainen and Zach Bogosian are solid plays on defense from Buffalo tonight as well.