MLB Cash Game Picks : 6-22-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw is starting tonight, and while normally that would result in me touting him for 100% cash games usage, that's not the case tonight. For starters, he's extremely expensive. That said, you can find enough bargains on both DraftKings and FanDuel to make rostering him viable. That said, there is a strong cheaper option who is the biggest betting favorite on the night. The wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, but Kershaw keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate (51.6%) and misses bats (32.8%) at a high enough rate that he should be fine. The Cubs are also prone to striking out against southpaws posting a 22.1% strikeout rate this year. Kershaw remains one of the best pitchers in the game ranking second in strikeout rate, third in K-BB% (26.6%), tied for fourth in FIP and first in xFIP (2.13). He's still a strong cash games option and his ceiling makes him a strong GPP option as well, but there is another excellent cash games option forthcoming.

Michael Pineda offers salary relief from Kershaw, but he also has two major factors working in his favor. First, oddsmakers have anointed him the biggest betting favorite of the night -- and it's not particularly close. Second, he's facing the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitchers as measured by wOBA (.274) and wRC+ (70), per FanGraphs. These variables alone wouldn't make the righty arguably a better option in cash games than Kershaw, but coupled with the fact he's really good, it puts him in play in cash games. Pineda ranks 13th in strikeout rate, seventh in K-BB% (22.6%), ninth in FIP and fourth in xFIP (2.58). He's coming off of a strong start and looks like a great option in all game types tonight.

Catcher

When you're building your FanDuel lineups, if you're using Kershaw, go ahead and immediately plug in Yan Gomes at catcher. That's not to say he's a bad option with other hurlers, but he should be an auto-pairing with Kershaw given his near minimum salary and excellence against lefties. He's also a great source of salary relief on DraftKings. Simply put, he's under priced for his hitting prowess against lefties. The lefty he's facing is rookie Kyle Ryan, and Ryan has done a Houdini-esque job of evading trouble tallying a 3.26 ERA despite a 5.69 FIP and 4.66 xFIP. Oddsmakers aren't fooled by his work, and with the wind blowing out at Progressive Field, the Indians are sporting a nice over/under run total of 4.5 runs. Gomes is one of two extreme bargains you'll want in your lineups tonight, the other is forthcoming.

First Base

Jose Abreu is a website dependent pick. He's the top play at first base on FanDuel, where his price remains depressed, but he's not the top play on DraftKings due to an inflated cost. On DraftKings, consider Albert Pujols ($4,500) the top play against subpar lefty Brett Oberholtzer. Back to Abreu, though, don't be off-put by his "ugly" numbers against lefties this season. His batted ball profile and plate discipline numbers are just fine, but he's unfortunately suffered from a .237 BABIP that's a product of bad luck. Abreu is fine, and Tommy Milone's .325 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters provides further incentive for using the Cuban slugger.

Second Base

Once again, this is a website dependent pick. Robinson Cano is a great pick at just $100 more than the minimum on FanDuel. Unlike Abreu, he's still in play on DraftKings, though, Howie Kendrick ($4,000) is the stronger play. As for Cano, he's in the midst of a four-game on-base streak (hooray, small victories). He continues to hit third most nights for the Mariners, and he's facing Joe Blanton. Apologies to Blanton for not buying into his work this year. He made just two starts at the Triple-A level last year and totaled a 5.30 FIP in seven games (six starts) at the Triple-A level this year. He's made seven relief appearances and one start for the Royals this year, and he's done fine, but he also still owns a .349 wOBA allowed to lefties since 2012. Also, don't be dissuade by the low over/under total for the contest, that's largely the product of King Felix starting.

Third Base

Is Chase Headley the best option at third base? Probably not, but price considered, he makes the most sense to use. Kyle Seager, Justin Turner and Trevor Plouffe all have compelling cases for honors as the top cash games pick at the hot corner, but each are more expensive on FanDuel and only Turner is cheaper on DraftKings. The switch-hitting Headley's value will be boosted thanks to left-handed batter park factors of 145 for homers and 107 for runs scored at Yankee Stadium, according to StatCorner. He also is sandwiched in between Brett Gardner and Alex Rodriguez in the Yankees lineup hitting second, putting him in a nice spot for run production. Kevin Correia is one of the worst pitchers on this slate, and he's ceded a .347 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012. That cross references nicely with Headley's above average work against right-handed pitchers.

Shortstop

Shortstop is ugly tonight, and it is a punt position if ever there was one. I'm not married to the idea of using Erick Aybar, so if another cheap option gets a surprise lineup promotion, feel free to swap them in. That said, when considering likely lineup spots for all of the options at shortstop, Aybar's home batting sixth looks decent at his cost, and the switch-hitter is better against lefties than righties. Aybar is essentially the best of a bad lot if you're not going to pony up for Carlos Correia.

Outfield

Yasiel Puig is my favorite affordable bopper on the slate. He can easily be budgeted for, even on rosters using Kershaw. Puig has been a handful for southpaws, and Tsuyoshi Wada has been rather giving to right-handed batters allowing a .333 wOBA to them in his career. Wada has allowed a 23.9% line drive rate and 39.1% fly-ball rate to righties, and those numbers could be especially troubling with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers are tied for the biggest betting total of the night, and you'll want to get some of them into your lineups, and Puig looks like the best of the bunch to me. Teammate Scott Van Slyke didn't get the nod in this article, but he's also a strong play.

Nelson Cruz is at his best against lefties, but as his numbers in the table above illustrate, he's really good against righties, too. Cruz's loud contact is exemplified by his ISO, and Blanton is a pitcher who is no stranger to serving up hard contact. Since 2012, he's tallied a pathetic 14.2% soft contact rate from righties while allowing a 34.7% hard hit ball rate. Expect some fireworks off of Cruz's bat tonight.

Ryan Raburn joins near minimum salary Gomes as an actual minimum salary choice on FanDuel, and his DraftKings price is also silly low. He's a platoon option who gets the nod in favor of David Murphy when the club faces a southpaw. Raburn had spent most of the season hitting cleanup in his starts, but in his last start, he hit fifth. Either lineup spot is fine when he consumes such a small portion of your salary cap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Raburn has been good against lefties since 2012, as the table above indicates, but he's been really good this year managing a .226 ISO, .390 wOBA and 156 wRC+ in 97 plate appearances.