MLB Cash Game Picks : 5-12-15

By: Josh Shepardson, Updated May 12, 2015

MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead, you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points, respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.

Pitcher

Chris Sale, L, White Sox
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opponent	FIP	K%	GB%	Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML
$9,600	$9,400	@Brewers	3.89	21.3	45.2	3.5 and -110

Jake Arrieta, R, Cubs
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opponent	FIP	K%	GB%	Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML
$9,500	$8,600	Mets	2.53	25	51.9	3.5 and -140

This is an odd day for picking cash games pitchers. The biggest favorite, C.J. Wilson, isn't a very good pitcher. A few of the other big favorites have substantial warts as well, so my preference is to target more talented favorites that are slightly smaller favorites. Chris Sale is a tiny favorite at Milwaukee, but he's pitching in a National League park and doesn't have to face a designated hitter, there is a low betting total and the Brewers are awful against lefties. They rank 28th in wRC+ (69) and have the eighth highest strikeout rate (22.8%) against lefties, according to FanGraphs. Sale has an unsightly 5.93 ERA through five starts, but his 3.88 FIP suggests he's been unlucky. His BABIP allowed is sky high and due for regression and he's struggled with stranding runners. The lefty's PITCHf/x data looks fine and he's still posting a staggering 10.8% swinging strike rate, so he'll turn it around, and I'm banking on that happening tonight.

Jake Arrieta makes it a duo of Chicago hurlers in today's cash game picks. Arrieta is following up his breakout 2014 season with similar production this year. Through six starts, he ranks fifth in FIP, 12th in strikeout rate, 13th in K-BB% (19.1%) and 25h in groundball rate (51.9%). His ability to keep the ball on the ground is helpful should the wind end up blowing out at Wrigley Field tonight. He's a bigger betting favorite than Sale tonight, and he's facing a Mets team that ranks 25th in wRC+ (84). Arrieta blends a high floor with a high ceiling and he narrowly edges out Sale for my top cash games pick at starting pitcher.

Catcher

Derek Norris, R, Padres
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$2,900	$3,400	James Paxton, LHP	0.385	0.197	150	2	3

Stephen Vogt, L, Athletics
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,700	$3,900	Justin Masterson, RHP	0.339	0.170	119	5	4

Derek Norris is fantastic against lefties, and he typically gets bumped to second in the order when a southpaw is on the hill. That lineup spot is nice since the Padres are an above average offense (103 wRC+) against lefties. In addition to the impressive numbers above, Norris does a great job of getting on base tallying a .383 OBP that's partly fueled by a strong 10.8% walk rate since 2012. His walk skills play well with James Paxton's occasional control struggles. He's shaved his walk rate down to 7.4% this year, but walked 9.6% of the batters he faced last year.

Stephen Vogt is back again in today's cash game picks. He just keeps raking against righties. Vogt delivered a double and a pair of RBI last night, providing a positive return for those who invested. The late-bloomer remains the top ranked qualified catcher this year in ISO (.316), wOBA (.447) and wRC+ (194). Vogt's power doesn't come with the typical high strikeout rate either, as he's struck out in only 14.8% of his plate appearances. The righty he's facing tonight, Justin Masterson, has allowed a .353 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012 making Vogt all the more appealing tonight.

First Base

Joey Votto, L, Reds
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,800	$4,500	Mike Foltynewicz, RHP	0.419	0.197	168	3	4

Joey Votto has a great matchup against youngster Mike Foltynewicz tonight. Foltynewicz has only faced 72 left-handed batters in the bigs but they've smacked him around posting a .467 wOBA. The right-hander also struggled in the minors. Since 2011, he's allowed a .756 OPS with a 13.1% walk rate to minor league batters, according to Minor League Central. Votto's discerning eye should result in some free passes or targeting and ripping a fat pitch or pitches in the strike zone. We are talking about the hitter with the highest line drive rate against right-handed pitchers since 2012 among batters who've received a minimum of 1,000 plate appearances after all.

Second Base

Neil Walker, S, Pirates
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,000	$4,400	Sean O'Sullivan, RHP	0.359	0.198	131	2	4.5

Dustin Pedroia, R, Red Sox
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$2,900	$3,800	Drew Pomeranz, LHP	0.369	0.162	132	2	3.5

Neil Walker is facing arguably the worst pitcher on tonight's slate. Sean O'Sullivan is a Triple-A pitcher masquerading as a big leaguer. Since 2012, he's allowed a .462 wOBA to 91 left-handed batters faced. Because the sample size is so small, it's probably worth looking at his entire big league career which began in 2009. Expanding the sample size, he's faced 570 left-handed batters and allowed a .377 wOBA. Couple his struggles with Walker's success against righties, which is best demonstrated in the table above, and you've got yourself a great cash games option at the keystone position.

It's probably feeling like Groundhog Day with Dustin Pedroia once again joining Walker as my second cash game pick at second base. Pedroia is locked into the two-hole and a well above average hitter against lefties. That's a great foundation for making a case to roster him, but his cheap cost and favorable pitching matchup seal the deal. A's starter Drew Pomeranz struggles with right-handed batters. Since 2012, he's allowed a .352 wOBA to righties.

Third Base

Kris Bryant, R, Cubs
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,500	$4,300	Noah Syndergaard, RHP	0.396	0.164	148	2	4

Manny Machado, R, Orioles
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$3,500	$4,500	Mark Buehrle, LHP	0.311	0.141	94	1	4.5

Kris Bryant didn't hit a homer for his first 20 games and reached the seats in his 21st game in the majors. It didn't take him nearly as long to reach the seats again. He followed up his first homer with an 0-for-5 showing before hitting his second homer in the next game, last night. Bryant's top shelf power gets all the headlines, but he's walked in a whopping 18.4% of his plate appearances in the majors. He has strikeout issues (33.0%), but he clearly understands the strike zone. The rookie third baseman has fared well against righties in the majors, and he gets to face a fellow rookie, Noah Syndergaard, making his first start tonight. Syndergaard is a fantastic pitching prospect, but it's entirely possible he'll have some jitters (understandably) in his first start in the majors. Even if he doesn't have jitters, the Cubs offense is better than anything he's ever faced in the minors and Bryant is a better than anything the minors have to offer.

Manny Machado's since 2012 numbers are underwhelming. In fact, he's actually been a below average hitter against southpaws in his big league career. Machado isn't being overwhelmed by lefties in his career owning just a 16.0% strikeout rate. He's moved up to the leadoff spot for the Orioles, elevating his floor, and gets to take cuts against Mark Buerhle. Buehrle has allowed a .331 wOBA to righties since 2012, and the O's above average offense against southpaws (102 wRC+) could result in some runs scored for Machado.

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki, R, Rockies
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$4,400	$4,400	C.J. Wilson, LHP	0.434	0.266	164	3	3

Troy Tulowitzki isn't at home tonight, but he does get to face a southpaw. Even on the road, he's a stud against lefties tallying a 156 wRC+ in 2012, 84 wRC+ in 2013 and 175 wRC+ in 2014 against southpaws away from Coors Field. That's offensive dominance. Lefty C.J. Wilson isn't very good against right-handed batters allowing a .325 wOBA to them since 2012. He's off to a strong start this year, but his ability to retire lefties had been slipping in recent years and he allowed a .345 wOBA to rigthies last year. Tulowitzki offers the type of gap in production between he and his peers that's unseen at any other position, making him the easiest selection as the top cash games pick at shortstop. He's not cheap, but budgeting can be done to fit him on cash games rosters fairly painlessly.

Outfield

Bryce Harper, L, Nationals
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$5,200	$5,300	Rubby De La Rosa, RHP	0.382	0.227	143	4	4

Justin Upton, R, Padres
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Run Total
$4,300	$4,800	James Paxton, LHP	0.393	0.242	150	4	3

Bryce Harper "only" went 1-for-4 with a walk, one run and one RBI last night. Is he okay? Is there reason for concern? I kid of course. Harper is back at Chase Field tonight, and that means he's hitting with park factors of 117 for doubles/triples, 110 for homers and 119 for runs as a left-handed batter, according to StatCorner. Harper has tallied a 191 wRC+ with a .381 ISO and 10, I repeat, 10, homers in 103 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year. Rubby De La Rosa is an intriguing young arm with some upside, but he's also a pitcher who has struggled with lefties thus far in The Show. He's faced 338 left-handed batters and allowed a .364 wOBA since 2012.

Justin Upton is an affordable alternative to Harper tonight. He's a beast against lefties. Since 2012, he ranks 16th in wRC+, 14th in wOBA and 11th in ISO (after eliminating Devon Travis' 27 qualified plate appearances this year) against lefties among qualified batters. Upton, the Padres' cleanup hitter, hits behind three other right-handed batters who are very good against southpaws. His cushy lineup spot should result in ducks on the pond. Upton can be fit on cash game rosters with the pricey top pitchers I've touted without rostering trash. Be sure to get some shares of Upton tonight.

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