MLB Cash Game Picks: 7-27-15

Pitcher

Lance Lynn is not only the biggest betting favorite on the slate, but he's also the best pitcher. He leads the way among probable hurlers on this slate in strikeout rate, and it's not particularly close with Jorge De La Rosa checking in second with a 22.6% strikeout rate. So not only is Lynn the most likely starter to tally a win, but he's also the best source of strikeouts. His floor and ceiling are easily the highest on the slate, making him a no-brainer selection in cash games. This isn't going to be lost on other gamers, though, so expect his ownership to be sky high. Also working in Lynn's favor is that he's pitching at home. Lynn owns a 2.50 FIP and 3.19 xFIP at home this year, and he's produced better at home than on the road for his entire career with a 2.86 FIP and 3.54 xFIP at home compared to a 3.63 FIP and 3.61 xFIP on the road.

Lynn is an easy choice as the top cash games pick on FanDuel and DraftKings, so my attention turned to selecting an SP2 for cash games on DraftKings. Chris Heston is a viable pick, but he's a full $1,300 more than Kyle Hendricks, making Hendricks a cheaper doppelganger to Heston. The Giants' righty induces more ground balls, but Hendricks bests him in strikeout rate, walk rate and xFIP. Getting the Rockies out of Coors Field is also a more desirable matchup than getting the Brewers on the road. The Rockies own just an 84 wRC+ on the road and a gaudy 24.0% strikeout rate. They're a putrid offense when they're not aided by the thin air at home. Hendricks should have little trouble carving up the Rockies tonight.

Catcher

Matt Wieters sat on Sunday with a stiff back, but he's considered day to day and a return to the lineup today is promising. If he's back, his price point is too good to ignore against a southpaw. The switch-hitter's power is top shelf against lefties, as the table above indicates. Alex Wood is also an interesting pitcher to target on the road with power. The reasoning is simple. While Wood's FIP on the road is better than at home in his career, his bat missing ability dries up with him sporting a 26.3% strikeout rate at home in his career and just an 18.3% strikeout rate on the road. If he's not missing Wieters' bat, the potential for extra base hits is rather nice.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt is very expensive on DraftKings, where gamers can feel free to spin down to Prince Fielder or Victor Martinez at a significantly reduced price. On FanDuel, Goldy is incredibly easy to budget for and an easy selection. He's an elite hitter against all pitchers, but Goldschmidt kicks it up to a whole new level against lefties. Since 2013, he ranks in the top three among all qualified hitters in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws. Mike Montgomery hasn't been very giving to right-handed batters in large part because he has an excellent changeup, but Goldy is another animal entirely.

Second Base

There aren't many hotter hitters on the planet than Rougned Odor. The Rangers have taken noticed and slotted him prominently in their lineup hitting him second. His demotion to the minors did the trick, and over the last 30 days, he's sporting a .356 ISO, .472 wOBA and 205 wRC+. He's at home, where the left-handed batter park factor for runs is 107, per StatCorner. Even a matchup with Ivan Nova can be considered favorable since he's allowed a .316 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2013. The Rangers have one of the higher team over/under totals on tonight's slate, and grabbing a table setter for them like Odor makes a ton of sense to elevate your cash games roster's floor.

Third Base

Kris Bryant hasn't been raking of late, but that's helped depress his cost on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he remains a bit expensive for my taste, and Matt Carpenter makes for a more affordable cash games alternative. Back to Bryant, though, a matchup with Jorge De La Rosa should be perfect for getting his bat going again. Bryant has crushed lefties in his rookie season, and De La Rosa is awful at taming right-handed bats allowing a .333 wOBA to them since 2013. The lefty is also a strange pitcher in that he's been better at Coors Field in his career donning purple than he's been on the road.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts is one of the easier cash games picks at any position tonight. Troy Tulowitzki is on the road tonight and Carlos Correa is off. Furthermore, the number-three hitter has a cupcake matchup with John Danks. Danks has allowed a .356 wOBA to right-handed batters since 2013. Bogaerts is enjoying a breakout, and lefties have really felt the pain of his improvements as a hitter since he's talying a .398 wOBA and 155 wRC+ against them. His price is non-prohibitive for grabbing other big bats and the top arm, so go ahead and comfortably slot him into all of your cash games rosters on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Outfield

With the highest team over/under total on the night, it probably shouldn't be shocking to see the leadoff hitter for the Red Sox, Mookie Betts, get the nod. Betts' numbers in the table above aren't overly impressive, but his low 13.5% strikeout rate indicates he rarely gives away outs by strike three, and his .280 BABIP is a bit on the low side. A home tilt for Betts also increases his value since he owns a .185 ISO, .353 wOBA and 120 wRC+ at Fenway Park compared to a .154 ISO, .325 wOBA and 108 wRC+ on the road. Oh, and in case you forgot, Danks is lost against right-handed batters (more on that in a moment).

Hanley Ramirez makes it three righties from the Red Sox within the top five in their order who get the nod in today's touts. As bad as Danks' since 2013 wOBA allowed to righties is, he's actually been worse this year coughing up a .378 wOBA to them. As the numbers in the table illustrate, HanRam is a beast against left-handed pitchers, and oddsmakers don't foresee another Cy Danks showing tonight. In other words, don't shy away from hitters on the Red Sox due to Danks' most recent strong start, he remains a bad lefty who picking hitters against will prove fruitful more often than not.

The theme of today's picks, at least for hitters, seems to be picking on southpaws. Queue Adam Jones getting the nod against lefty Alex Wood. On Sunday, the Orioles dropped Manny Machado to third in the order against lefties with Jones hitting cleanup. A return of Wieters tonight would make for a formidable 3-through-5 if manager Buck Showalter rolls with Machado, Jones and Wieters in those spots. Jones being sandwiched in between the two would provide him solid run scored and RBI potential. The outfielder has terrorized left-handed pitchers at Camden Yards the last two years, posting a .225 SIO, .441 wOBA and 187 wRC+ under those conditions last year and a .389 ISO, .474 wOBA and 210 wRC+ under those conditions this year.