MLB Cash Game Picks : 7-6-15

Pitcher

I'll start by addressing the elephant in the room. Yes, it's Chris Sale Day. Unfortunately for him, he's facing the best offense in baseball against southpaws, the Blue Jays. As a result of his matchup, there is a great deal of risk with using the hottest pitcher on the planet. Instead, I'd suggest using A.J. Burnett. He's been one of the best pitchers this year ranking tied for seventh in FIP and tied for 15th in xFIP (3.14). The veteran righty doesn't possess the same strikeout upside as some of the other probable pitchers, but he's missed enough bats and the Padres are awful against righties. The Friars rank near the bottom of the league in wOBA (.291) and wRC+ (87) against righties while striking out at a high rate (22.3% strikeout rate). Burnett's floor is very high, and his ceiling isn't bad, albeit not as high as others such as Carlos Carrasco and Jon Lester (my second and third favorite cash games options).

As I noted above, Carrasco and Lester are my second and third favorite cash games options, but on multi-pitcher sites, Chris Heston is a player I will be locking in as my SP2 or SP3 (on FantasyFeud). He's a betting favorite tonight, which is a check mark in the pros column. Another big check mark in the pros column is for his tiny price tag on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I'm less inclined to use Heston in cash games since you can surround Burnett, Carrasco and Lester with plenty of talented bats in favorable situations, and they're better pitchers than Heston. Getting back to Heston, though, he's been very good this year -- as the numbers in the table above indicate -- and he's already dominated this woefully bad Mets offense once when he spun a no-hittter with 11 strikeouts. The Mets are the second worst offense in baseball against righties as measured by wOBA (.286) and third worst as measured by wRC+ (84), and they aren't a high-contact offense (20.6% strikeout rate), either.

Catcher

Because I'm not advocating using Sale tonight in cash games, you'll have plenty of funds to spend on hitting, and it starts with Buster Posey at catcher. He's a terror for left-handed pitchers. Since 2012, he ranks in the top 10 in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ among all hitters, not just catchers. He's an elite hitter when facing a left-handed pitcher. Jon Niese is the unlucky pitcher who has to try to keep Posey in check, and he's allowed a .322 wOBA to right-handed since 2012. He's been even worse this year, too, allowing a .352 wOBA to righties.

First Base

Adrian Gonzalez was hit with a pitch on the hand in yesterday's game, but he declined x-rays and he expects to play today. Assuming that's the case, he's a steal on FanDuel and fairly priced on DraftKings. If he's unable to play today, Joey Votto makes for a strong alternative on both sites. Gonzalez is a viable play against all right-handed pitchers, even the best ones in the league, and Sean O'Sullivan is at the polar opposite end of that spectrum. O'Sullivan has allowed a .455 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012, essentially turning left-handed batters into Hall of Fame caliber hitters.

Second Base

Brian Dozier, like Posey, is one of the best hitters in the game against southpaws. He's not quite in the Posey class, but he ranks in the top 25 among all qualified hitters in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against lefties since 2012. Wei-Yin Chen is a slightly underrated pitcher, but he's been fairly giving to righties (.326 wOBA allowed since 2012). On FanDuel, there is no question that Dozier should be immediately inserted into cash games rosters since the non-punt viable alternatives don't offer much of a reduced salary. However, on DraftKings, Joe Panik offers an $1,100 discount for gamers who can't squeeze Dozier onto their cash game rosters.

Third Base

Manny Machado is very expensive on FanDuel, and Trevor Plouffe stands out as a viable and much cheaper alternative (Plouffe's teammate, Miguel Sano, is a $2,200 punt who is also worth a look). Machado gets the tout in today's cash game picks as a result of a price on DraftKings that looks like an oversight. Machado owns a reverse platoon split for his career, and righty Phil Hughes has been much more giving to righties than lefties since 2012 (.305 wOBA to lefties and .350 to righties). He's been on fire over the last month, and hitting atop the Orioles' order will give him the maximum number of at-bats to rack up fantasy points.

Shortstop

Brandon Crawford's since 2012 numbers against lefties are good relative to the offensive production of most other shortstops, but they're weighed down by his struggles against southpaws early in his career. Since the start of last year, he's the proud owner of a .188 ISO, .393 wOBA and 159 wRC+ against lefties. Predictably, Niese is better against left-handed batters than righties, but his ability to tie up left-handed batters has waned this year with him allowing a .319 wOBA to them.

Outfield

I already pointed out O'Sullivan's shortcomings against lefties (more on that soon), but he's no great shakes against right-handed batters, either. Since 2012, O'Sullivan has allowed a .318 wOBA to righties. O'Sullivan simply isn't a big league caliber starting pitcher and his 5.98 FIP and 5.14 xFIP reflect that. The Dodgers should rough up the Phillies tonight, and Yasiel Puig is in a lineup spot to benefit from the offense's success. Furthermore, Puig has a nearly identical wOBA and wRC+ against lefties in his career as he does against righties, so he's not an easy hitter to neutralize with a reliever of a certain handedness.

As I foreshadowed, here's another left-handed batter to use in cash games against O'Sullivan. In fact, here's the best left-handed batter to use against him since he'll get the most cracks at him batting leadoff. Joc Pederson's biggest problem is strike outs (29.1% strikeout rate), but O'Sullivan isn't the man to add to Pederson's season total with just a 9.2% strikeout rate against left-handed batters since 2012. The rookie has well above average power, and he's cleared the fences 20 times this year. His power gets a lift at home since Dodger Stadium has a left-handed batter park factor of 127 for homers, per StatCorner. Pederson is my pick for Dong of the Day.

Cameron Maybin's since 2012 numbers in the table above are thoroughly underwhelming, but don't be deterred from using him. He's enjoying a breakout in his age-28 season. Maybin has worked his way into the second spot in the order for the Braves, and he's a speedy table setter who has stolen 15 bases in 19 chances. Unlike some rabbits, he has some punch as well with seven homers. The center fielder has teased by flashing his exciting tools, but they've been inconsistent in showing up as playable skills. This year, he's totaled a .122 ISO, .343 wOBA and 119 wRC+. Tonight, his value is bolstered by a trip to Milwaukee. Miller Park has right-handed batter park factors of 135 for homers and 106 for runs.