MLB Cash Game Picks: 8-31-15

Pitcher

There are a handful of monstrous favorites today, but none are bigger favorites than Dallas Keuchel. That certainly aids his case for top pitcher in cash games. I'm not simply leaning on Vegas for this choice, though, Keuchel is in good form. Over the last 30 days, the lefty has pitched 34.2 innings in five starts totaling a 2.29 FIP and 2.91 xFIP with a solid 23.9% strikeout rate. His opponent, the Mariners, have been a top-10 offense against lefties this year (100 wRC+), but they've also struck out in 22.4% of their plate appearances. They've been even more potent of late, but they're also punching out at a higher rate. Over the last 30 days, they rank fifth in wRC+ (117), per FanGraphs, but they also have struck out in 23.3% of their plate appearances. I have a ton of faith in Keuchel exploiting their propensity for striking out while avoiding damage, in large part due to his juicy ground-ball rate highlighted in the table above. You can't rip a long ball if you're pounding it into the dirt.

Instead of highlighting another ace who you can't reasonably expect to use as your SP2 on DraftKings, or choosing my second favorite cash games play on FanDuel, Kyle Hendricks gets the nod because he is an affordable SP2 on DraftKings and even a reasonable cash games alternative on FanDuel for gamers who want to load up on bats at Coors Field. Hendricks, as you can see in the table, is another of the big betting favorites on the night. His mediocre 4.11 ERA is likely to blame for the lack of fanfare he gets, but his 3.50 FIP and 3.39 xFIP indicate he's probably been rather a unlucky this year. The righty misses bats at a respectable clip and keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate while limiting free passes (5.7% walk rate). That mix should play well against the Reds, who rank tied for 26th in wRC+ (89) against right-handed pitching this year. The Reds have been even worse of late, too, totaling a 79 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Catcher

The dog days of the summer have taken a bite out of Buster Posey's power, but he's still raking and owns a .331 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in the second half of the season. His power outage has resulted in a steep decline in price, and one that warrants taking advantage of in cash games as he faces lefty Brett Anderson tonight. The Giants' cleanup hitter carries a .155 ISO, .342 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against lefties this year into tonight's game against the division rival Dodgers.

First Base

David Ortiz sits at a price point that's comfortably below the other elite options at the position, but his upside rivals that of nearly everyone priced above him. The Red Sox have a team total of 4.5 runs at home tonight, and that's tied with a few other teams for the second highest on the slate. Grabbing hitters, especially heart-of-the-order hitters from these games is a great way to raise your floor. The veteran slugger has been excellent against righties this year (.297 ISO, .406 wOBA and 159 wRC+) and is cruising in the second half (.348 ISO, .444 wOBA and 185 wRC+).

Second Base

Jose Altuve is the most expensive second baseman on DraftKings, though, still usable there, and he's a total bargain at FanDuel. The leadoff hitter for the Astros is facing below average lefty Vidal Nuno tonight. Nuno has allowed a .330 wOBA to righties this year and a .337 wOBA to them since 2013. Predictably, the righty-laden Astros have a juicy 4.5 run over/under total, and grabbing their leadoff hitter who hammers left-handed pitchers is a wise move.

Third Base

You'll need to find some bargainst around the diamond, and Danny Valencia fits that bill at the hot corner (he's also outfield eligible on DraftKings). Since the Blue Jays somewhat surprisingly designated him for assignment, the A's have reaped the rewards of claiming him off waivers and thrusting him into their cleanup spot. In 86 plate appearances in green and gold Valencia has swatted five homers with a .244 ISO, .367 wOBA and 139 wRC+. He's long been a lefty masher, but his success this year against righties is a reason to extend him more trust in cash games since the risk of him being lifted for a pinch-hitter late in games is all but gone.

Shortstop

It's possible Jhonny Peralta will be have the distinction of being the highest owned player on FanDuel in cash games. He's sitting at the minimum salary, shortstop still mostly stinks, and he's facing a southpaw. Peralta does tons of damage against lefties (.239 ISO, .340 wOBA and 117 wRC+ this year), and Gio Gonzalez is stumbling through his worst season against right-handed batters since 2009 (.336 wOBA allowed to righties this year).

Outfield

The Peralta love extends beyond Jhonny to David Peralta. The Diamondbacks are on the road tonight, and while that would usually mean a downgrade in park factors, not so fast my friends, they're at Coors Field! Peralta's price on DraftKings is a steal, and on FanDuel it's fair even with the standard Coors Field inflation rate. The corner outfield is continuing his unlikely late-blooming ways and has a .236 ISO, .388 wOBA and 144 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year. He's also cooking with gasoline in the second half of the season (.237 ISO, .427 wOBA and 171 wRC+).

More salary relief is needed to roster this collection of cash games picks together, so enter Shane Victorino. He's in a platoon with David Murphy for the Angels, serving on the light side of things facing lefties. The Angels face a southpaw tonight, and Victorino will sit atop the order. Given Victorino's age (34), it's understandable that some gamers may be inclined to take his since 2012 numbers with a grain of salt. Don't worry, though, he's still been a respectable hitter (.314 wOBA and 99 wRC+) against southpaws this year. They aren't world beater numbers, but when combined with his lineup spot and the huge salary relief he'll provide, he's a worthy inclusion on cash games' rosters.

Derek Dietrich is only third base eligible on FanDuel, but like the aforementioned Valencia, he's third base and outfield eligible on DraftKings. There haven't been many bright spots on the Marlins this year, but Dietrich is one. At this point, it's probably fair to call him a utility player, and his carrying tool is his bat. The lefty is slaughtering righties this year with a .293 ISO, .401 wOBA and 157 wRC+. His impressive work extends beyond those numbers, too, as his 9.7% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout rate against righties suggest he has a strong command of the strike zone and isn't simply an all-or-nothing hacker against them. Those numbers could be on the rise tonight, as righty Mike Foltynewicz is simply lost against left-handed batters. Since reaching the majors last year, he's coughed up a staggering .411 wOBA to lefties.